This article is part of our DraftKings MMA series.
The UFC returns to Las Vegas, Nevada on Saturday, August 10 for UFC Vegas 95. The main event features a rematch of ranked heavyweights, as Marcin Tybura takes on Serghei Spivac.
Below, I'll share my favorite play, an underdog, a prop and a two-fighter parlay. All odds are via the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the post date of this article.
Weight Classs: Women's bantamweight
Karol Rosa (17-6) vs. Pannie Kianzad (16-8)
On the prelims of UFC Vegas 95, an intriguing women's bantamweight bout goes down, and I'm backing Karol Rosa to get her hand raised against Pannie Kianzad.
Rosa is coming off a loss to Irene Aldana, which was a fight she had a lot of success in. Kianzad, meanwhile, is on a two-fight losing skid and is 1-3 in her last four. She has had her struggles when she fights increased competition, which is what Rosa is.
Rosa should have a major advantage with the wrestling and grappling, as we have seen Kianzad get submitted quite a bit, as she tends to give up her back in fights. On the feet, the Rosa also throws more volume, which will help gain the favor of the judges. Mix those two factors together, and I like Rosa to get the win.
UFC Vegas 95 Best Bet: Karol Rosa (-205)
Weight Class: Strawweight
Talita Alencar (5-0-1) vs. Stephanie Luciano (5-1-1)
Opening up the UFC Vegas 95 card is a strange strawweight bout between Talita Alencar and Stephanie Luciano, and this is a fight I like Alencar in as the underdog.
Alencar and Luciano fought on the Contender Series to a draw in a fight that Alencar was a -240 favorite in. Alencar then won her UFC debut, although it wasn't the most impressive showing. Luciano, meanwhile, hasn't fought since the DWCS bout.
Why Alencar is now a +140 underdog is surprising to me, as in the Contender Series fight, Alencar was able to take down Luciano four times, showing she has a massive grapping advantage. Luciano is also coming off a layoff and hasn't made her UFC debut, which usually results in a poor performance due to the pressure and nerves.
This is a spot I like the underdog to use her wrestling to control Luciano to get a decision.
UFC Vegas 95 Best Bet: Talita Alencar (+140)
Weight Class: Welterweight
Danny Barlow (8-0) vs. Nikolay Veretennikov (12-4)
For my prop, I'm taking Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov to go under 2.5 rounds.
Barlow and Veretnnikov are both strikers who have a ton of knockout power. Veretennikov took this fight on short notice, so I worry about his cardio a bit. In Barlow's last four fights, all have gone under 2.5 rounds, while three of them ended in the first. Veretnnikov, meanwhile, has seen four of his last five fights go under 2.5 rounds, including two wins by KO in the first round.
Barlow has a ton of power and has the ability to finish Veretnnikov early, but so does Veretnnikov. Ultimately, I think this one ends in the second round, but the under 2.5 rounds at -140 is a solid price.
UFC Vegas 95 Best Bet: Danny Barlow vs. Nikolay Veretennikov under 2.5 rounds (-140)
Weight Class: Featherweight & Heavyweight
Youssef Zalal (14-5-1) vs. Jarno Errens (14-5-1)
Karl Williams (10-1) vs. Jhonata Diniz (7-0)
For my parlay at UFC Vegas 95, I'm backing Youssef Zalal and Karl Williams to get their hands raised Saturday.
Zalal submitted Billy Quarantillo in his return to the UFC, who to me is a much harder fight than Errens. Errens is a solid striker, but Zalal should have a massive advantage on the ground, as Errens has a brutal 28 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Zalal should be able to get Errens down and get another submission win.
In the other leg, I like Williams to hand Jhonata Diniz his first career loss. Williams is a great wrestler and should be able to take down Diniz at will (similar to how Austen Lane had success grappling until he got caught).
Williams is the better wrestler than Lane, and he will know not to stand with him, so I like Williams to control Diniz for 15 minutes en route to the win.
UFC Vegas 95 Best Bet: Youssef Zalal & Karl Williams (-133)
UFC Vegas 95 Best Bets
Here is a recap of this weekend's UFC Vegas 95 best bets.
- Karol Rosa (-205)
- Talita Alencar (+140)
- Danny Barlow-Nikolay Veretennikov under 2.5 rounds (-140)
- Youssef Zalal & Karl Williams parlay (-133)
For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC odds page on RotoWire.
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