Cook Out 400 Preview: Playoff Hunt Intensifies

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

We return from the Olympic break and head to Richmond, Virginia and Richmond Raceway this weekend for the 23rd race of the season and approaching a climax in the run up to the Chase for the Cup playoffs. During the earlier years of the Chase era, this had been the track where NASCAR ended its regular season and determined the field for the Chase. However, the schedule got a shakeup a few seasons ago, and NASCAR decided to move this event into the 10 races of the Chase playoff. This changed in 2022 as the sanctioning body decided to return Richmond back into the races that lead up to the cutoff to make the playoffs. The urgency and the heated competition will be different this weekend. Instead of trying to advance in the Chase, drivers will instead be trying to make it into the playoff field of drivers as the clock is rapidly winding down on this regular season. This Richmond race will have a different feel, but all the same importance as the past. Drivers will be going all out to grab that valuable win that transfers them into the Chase playoffs. As we saw at Indianapolis prior to the Olympic break, drivers are taking chances at this point in the season that they have not up until this point. That will make for higher stakes, more contact, harder racing and when we put that on the small oval at Richmond Raceway, we're sure to be thrilled by what we see take place. 

Since Richmond's oval is a short track with its own group of dominant drivers, let's take a quick look at the recent history of this facility and see who will be running up front this weekend. The short tracks usually produce familiar names when it comes to driver efficiency, so some of these drivers should look familiar as compared to New Hampshire which was run just a few weeks ago. The urgency to make the Chase for the Cup playoff field will have an impact on performances, but we still expect the short track aces to have the best outings at Richmond. Here are the loop stats for the last 38 races at Richmond Raceway.

This is the second visit of the 2024 season at Richmond Raceway. If we look back to the race earlier this year, we get very good vibes for the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing team and Denny Hamlin. The star driver tracked down Martin Truex Jr. in the closing laps and took the lead in overtime to win the Toyota Owners 400. It was Hamlin's fifth-career victory at Richmond Raceway and second in the last five events at the Virginia short track. The veteran driver has had some troubles and inconsistency in recent weeks, but he's been pretty sharp on short tracks this season, so there's reasonable hope Hamlin will be in top form this weekend. 

In addition to Hamlin, there were several suitors who challenged for that Richmond win earlier this season. Chief among them were Kyle Larson and Truex Jr. Both are trying to step up their performance for the quickly approaching playoffs, so the return to Richmond will be welcome for both of those drivers. We'll highlight them, along with other short track specialists and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy league this weekend at Richmond Raceway for the Cook Out 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – Larson hasn't won on a short track this season, but he's been a bridesmaid on more than one occasion. The Hendrick Motorsports star has five Top-5 finishes on the ovals one-mile and less in size and over 350 laps led this season. Larson's two victories and nine Top-10 finishes at Richmond have all come since the 2016 season. He boasts a win and three Top 5's in his last five starts at Richmond Raceway, including his victory in last season's Toyota Owners 400. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet won the pole, led 144 laps and finished third in March's race at Richmond Raceway. He'll be a force to contend with Sunday afternoon in the Cook Out 400.      

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is coming off a rough stretch prior to the Olympic break. The good news is that all three of his victories this season have come on short tracks, so he should be eager to get back to racing this weekend. Richmond Raceway has yielded five victories, 19 Top-5 finishes (54-percent) and over 2,200 career laps led at the Virginia short track. Hamlin grabbed his fifth-career win at Richmond earlier this season with a clever performance by the No. 11 Toyota team. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has won or finished runner-up in five of his last seven Richmond starts. That's stellar by any measure. Hamlin will be a top driver to beat at Richmond Raceway.     

Martin Truex Jr. – While he's winless thus far this season, we still have to respect his abilities on certain tracks. Truex's three-career Richmond wins have all come since the 2019 season at the Virginia short track. His uptick in Top 10's has elevated his career total to 18 in 36 starts for a strong 50-percent rate. The driver of the No. 19 Toyota has not won on a short track this season, but he has led over 400 laps and nabbed a runner-up finish at Bristol. The speed and ability to win has been there, Truex has just had trouble closing one of these wins in 2024. The veteran driver has five Top-10 finishes and a stellar 8.3 average finish on the bull rings this season and that's a good indicator of what this driver and team could do at Richmond Raceway.  

Joey Logano – Logano has enjoyed some success this season on the circuit's short tracks. A strong, runner-up finish at Richmond early in the year stands out coming into this weekend's follow-up Richmond race. The Penske Racing star is a two-time Richmond winner and his 19 Top-10 finishes at the track check in at a strong 63-percent rate. The career average finish at the Virginia short track is a tidy 9.7. Coming off a win at Nashville and Top 5 at Pocono prior to the Olympic break, Logano appears to be visiting Richmond Raceway at just the right time. He'll be one of Ford's top contenders to win Sunday in this 400-mile short track battle.  

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been trying to hit the reset button on his season prior to the Olympic break. A strong spring was followed by a challenging summer. Keselowski has nabbed four Top 10's this season on short tracks and one of them came at Richmond Raceway earlier in March. He's a two-time Richmond winner and as recently as the 2020 season. Keselowski's 15 Top-10 finishes at the track net a strong 52-percent Top-10 rate at Richmond Raceway and hold down a respectable career 12.0 average finish. The veteran driver finished eighth-place in the event earlier this season at the Richmond oval and he rides a three-race Richmond Top-10 streak into this Sunday afternoon. 

Chris Buescher – Buescher has sort of been a short track specialist this season. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver has grabbed two Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less this year. The last outing he registered a strong fifth-place finish at Loudon a few weeks ago. Buescher won this event one year ago for his first-career Richmond victory and he's grabbed three Top-10's at Richmond Raceway in his last four attempts there. This oval has not been a career-long successful track for Buescher, but he's been pretty sharp at Richmond since the 2022 season. His ninth-place finish in March's Toyota Owners 400 is likely the floor as to expectations for Sunday.

Christopher Bell – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been almost flawless at Richmond Raceway in his five-season Cup Series career. Bell owns four Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his eight Richmond starts for a dazzling 75-percent Top-10 rate and miniscule 7.5 average finish at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has led over 100 laps at Richmond during this time and he finished an impressive sixth-place here earlier this season in March. Bell has been a supreme short track performer in 2024 with two wins, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. One of those two victories came in the Cup Series' last short track outing at Loudon a few weeks ago.     

Tyler Reddick – Reddick doesn't have dazzling Richmond stats in his resume but pay attention to this last couple outings at the Virginia short track on clues to his performance this Sunday. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota won the pole in this event one year ago and led 81 laps before fading to 16th-place. However, Reddick would return to Richmond Raceway this March and earn a more appropriate 10th-place finish in the Toyota Owners 400. The 23XI Racing youngster has been dialed-in on the bull rings this season with four Top-10 finishes (57-percent) and a respectable 13.7 average finish. His last short track outing was his best of the season with an impressive sixth-place finish at Loudon a few weeks ago.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Richmond & solid upside

Chase Elliott – Elliott does not have the kind of Richmond stats that inspire much confidence, however, he has been turning his performances there more positive in recent seasons. Elliott owns three Top-5 finishes in his last five Richmond Raceway starts. That has increased his Top-10 rate at the oval to 44-percent and lowered his average finish to a sharp 10.8. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has been razor sharp on short tracks in 2024, with four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes which work out to a strong 8.7 average finish on ovals one-mile in size and less. Elliott nabbed a strong fifth-place finish in his last Richmond start, which came in March. 

William Byron – Byron has been an uneven performer on short tracks this season, thus we've moved him to the sleepers list this week. However, his homerun potential shouldn't be overlooked in weekly fantasy racing games. The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet owns a win (Martinsville) and three Top-10 finishes on the bull ring circuit thus far this season. At Iowa a few weeks ago, he raced to an impressive runner-up finish in the Iowa Corn 350. Earlier this season at Richmond Raceway, Byron overcame a lackluster qualifying effort to post a strong seventh-place finish in the Toyota Owners 400. That is one of three Top 10's he's posted at Richmond since the 2021 season. During that same span he's also led close to 250 laps at the Virginia oval.  

Josh Berry – Berry's predecessor, Kevin Harvick, had tremendous success over his career at Richmond Raceway, and a lot of that has rubbed off on the No. 4 Ford team. Berry has only two Cup Series starts at the Virginia short track, but they've been impressive results. He finished runner-up in the spring of 2023 at Richmond and he finished 11th-place in March of this year with the Stewart Haas Racing team. Berry has been strong on short tracks in recent starts with seventh- and third-place finishes recently at Iowa and Loudon. He'll carry that momentum into Virginia this weekend. This driver and team will be a threat to crack the Top 10 in Sunday's Cook Out 400.

Ryan Blaney – Blaney has been a consistent performer on the short tracks this season. Qualifying well has especially been a top priority of the Penske Racing No. 12 team. Blaney has one pole and three outside poles on ovals one-mile and less in size. He's converted that good starting track position into one win, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes. Richmond Raceway isn't Blaney's favorite short track, but he's had some good performances here since 2021. He's grabbed three Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes in his last seven Richmond starts. Blaney has never won a Cup race at this track and isn't a likely candidate for victory lane this Sunday. However, Blaney brings enough to the table to warrant sleeper status.   

Alex Bowman – The one-time Richmond winner wasn't very sharp early in his career at the ¾-mile oval in Virginia, but Bowman has come on in more recent times. Since the 2020 season he's accumulated a win and four Top-10 finishes in his last eight Richmond Raceway starts for a respectable 50-percent Top-10 rate during this recent span. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran hasn't been shabby on the short tracks in 2024 with four Top-10 finishes in seven starts (57-percent) on the one-mile and smaller ovals. We don't expect the No. 48 Chevrolet to be battling it out among the leaders late Sunday afternoon at Richmond, but we do expect Bowman to be one of those back-end Top-10 teams after 400-laps.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The deep-reach sleeper driver this week is Stenhouse. We think of the JTG Daugherty Racing driver more on superspeedways and bigger ovals, but he brings value this week to Richmond. Something has clicked for Stenhouse in recent short track outings with surprising fifth- and seventh-place finishes recently at Iowa and Loudon. This veteran driver has 22 starts of Cup Series experience racing at the Richmond short track and that puts Stenhouse in a select class. He's never been a big performer at this oval, but the way Stenhouse has been performing on the bull rings of late, we believe he's worth a long look in the Cook Out 400.    

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Richmond Raceway is statistically Busch's best short track on the circuit. The Richard Childress Racing star has six-career victories and a whopping 19 Top-5 finishes at the Virginia short track. The driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet clearly knows how to run up front at Richmond, and the numbers bear this out. However, we're calling for the fade this week as Busch is mired in one of the worst slumps of his career at present. With just one Top-10 finish in his last 10 events, Busch has slid to 18th-place in the championship driver standings. The short tracks have been a real puzzle this season with just one Top 10 in seven starts on ovals one-mile and less in size. This driver and team are one to avoid in the Cook Out 400.

Ross Chastain – The short tracks have been reasonably good to Chastain and the No. 1 Chevrolet team this season, but the numbers aren't the best. The 29-percent Top-10 rate and 11.9 average finish are a mixed bag of sorts, and certainly not as good as Chastain can be on the bigger tracks. Richmond Raceway hasn't been this veteran driver's best short track over the years. In 11 starts, Chastain has only managed two Top 10's (18-percent) and 20.7 average finish. We don't believe he'll be that far back in the field this Sunday afternoon, but we believe Chastain's fantasy worth will be muted in this 400-lap short track battle.      

Bubba Wallace – Despite improved Richmond performances in the last couple seasons, we have to recommend passing on Wallace and the No. 23 team this Sunday. His 12-career Richmond Raceway starts have yet to yield a Top-10 finish and register a 21.8 average finish. Short tracks have been a big puzzle for the 23XI Racing veteran. In seven starts on ovals one-mile in size and less, Wallace has only managed one Top 10 (14-percent) and disappointing 20.7 average finish. We'll see if the Olympic break was a good pause and regroup period for this driver and team. However, the short track performances of this season indicate a bench spot this weekend for the Cook Out 400.

Corey Lajoie – Lajoie has collected the entirety of his career Top 10's on superspeedway ovals. Those are really his best performing and best finish tracks. The small ovals are on the other side of the coin for this driver and team. Lajoie has yet to collect a Top-20 finish this season on an oval one-mile in size or less. The average finish is coming in at an undesirable 26.7. Lajoie's Richmond Raceway resume isn't the best either. He finished three laps down to the leaders here in March in a distant 36th-place. Lajoie's 13-career Cup Series starts at Richmond have yet to net a Top-20 finish and barely move the needle with a distant 28.7 average finish.