Cook Out 400 Preview: Short Track Survival

The NASCAR Cup Series starts their short track schedule for 2025 this week as the series pulls into the small town of Martinsville, Virginia for the Cook Out 400. This Martinsville event marks the first short track event of the season. NASCAR shortened this race a few seasons ago from 500 to 400 laps and now uses stages of 80/100/220 laps. Martinsville Speedway is very flat track with only 12 degrees of banking in the turns and is truly flat on the long straight-aways. Last week we witnessed tire preservation/fall off and some issues with tire wear at Homestead. Will we see a similar game played at the Martinsville oval? Very likely yes, but probably more dramatic than the Homestead race. Brake preservation is the name of the game in Martinsville, because you essentially have two long drag strips with hairpin corners on either end. The oval looks very much like a paperclip when viewed from above, thus the nickname "the paperclip" has taken hold over the years. Taking care of your brakes for the full 400 laps becomes as important as passing on this tricky short track.

Like any bull ring in the NASCAR Cup Series, not only is equipment preservation important but getting and maintaining good track position is of the utmost importance. If you get stuck in the back of the field here, you can find yourself a lap down in a matter of minutes from the start or any restart, so teams must place high priority on getting and keeping good track position. You won't be able to race your way through traffic and back toward the front as easily here as some other small ovals. Track position will become so important over the course of the race that you will see teams chose either not to pit certain cautions, or to take on two tires in order to grab valuable track position on pit road. All these factors make any Martinsville race a battle of survival and often times the best equipment preservation and pit strategy wins.

Since Martinsville Speedway is like no other track on the NASCAR Cup circuit, we'll have to pay close attention to the loop stats this week. Recent historical statistics at Martinsville will be one of the biggest considerations in our weekly projections. Hot streaks go out the window to a certain extent when we visit this facility, so it's these recent numbers that require close scrutiny. The loop stats in the table below span the last 20 years or 40 races at Martinsville Speedway.  

In this event one year ago, we saw William Byron rise late and fend off Chase Elliott during NASCAR overtime to capture the win. He would capture his second-career win at Martinsville Speedway and be a part of Hendrick Motorsports' Chevrolets finishing 1-2-3 that day. That performance was right on the normal trend here in recent seasons. We've typically seen most Martinsville winners rise late in this event and overcome a more dominant driver in the closing laps. This phenomenon is due in part to pit strategy and also car preservation, saving something for the end. We'll see if this trend and phenomena hold up Sunday in the Cook Out 400.  

When the NASCAR Cup Series returned to Martinsville Speedway last fall, it would be Ryan Blaney rising late and upsetting the Hendrick Chevrolets by taking his No. 12 Ford into victory lane for the second time in the last three races at the historic Virginia short track. Brad Keselowski would dominate most of that race with 170 laps led, but would eventually fade to ninth-place by the checkered flag. We'll take a look at the recent Martinsville stats as well as current short track trends and give you the drivers you need to dominate your fantasy racing leagues at Martinsville Speedway in the Cook Out 400.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

William Byron – The driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has seemingly figured this oval out. The Hendrick Motorsports star earned an impressive victory in this event three years ago, and he won this event last season. That makes Byron a two-time victor at Martinsville since the 2022 season and he also boasts a runner-up finish at the Virginia short track. Byron now sports a strong 57-percent Top-10 rate and steady 13.3 average finish at this facility. He didn't win here last fall, but the Hendrick Motorsports star led 51 laps and finished an impressive sixth-place in last November's Xfinity 500. We believe Byron and his team will be one of the top contenders to win Sunday in the Cook Out 400.      

Ryan Blaney – If there's a track and event to pull Blaney out of his current huge slump, Martinsville Speedway is it. He's grabbed two wins, two runner-up finishes and rides a six-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into this weekend. Those performances have lowered his career average finish at the facility to a strong 8.3. Blaney finished fifth-place in this event one year ago and he returned last fall to capture his second-career Martinsville win in the Xfinity 500. The Penske Racing star's current struggles are a bit concerning, but Martinsville Speedway is a different animal. The change of venue to a short track will likely spur a rebound performance for the No. 12 Ford team. 

Kyle Larson – Larson won his first victory of the season at Homestead-Miami Speedway this past Sunday and now he'll look to keep the momentum rolling in Southern Virginia. The No. 5 Chevrolet team will set their sights on Martinsville Speedway this weekend. The Hendrick Motorsports star won this event two seasons ago and he won the pole and finished runner-up here in November of 2024. Larson has overcome a lot of his early-career struggles at this track with his performances in recent seasons. He has led over 300 laps and accrued five Top-5 finishes at the Martinsville short track since 2021. Larson rides an impressive five-race Martinsville Top-10 streak into Sunday's Cook Out 400.  

Denny Hamlin – No other driver has as much knowledge and success at Martinsville Speedway as does Hamlin. His five-career Martinsville victories, 20 Top 5's and close to 2,500 laps led lead all active drivers at this facility. In his last start at the Virginia short track last November, the Joe Gibbs Racing star came from 37th-place on the starting grid and finished fifth-place. That only bolstered his career Top-5 rate here to an amazing 53-percent. Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team are coming off a runner-up Phoenix finish and Homestead Top-5 finish and are locked in right now. A possible sixth Martinsville win and grandfather clock trophy await this veteran driver. 

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Elliott's decent start to the season should get a boost this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway. He should be poised to challenge for his second Top-5 finish of the season. The Hendrick Motorsports star has some pretty good performance stats at this oval. Elliott is a one-time Martinsville winner (2020) and his 12 Top-10 finishes check in at a strong 63-percent rate and 12.1 average finish. With over 1,200 career laps led at this small oval, it's obvious that Elliott loves racing here. Last season alone Elliott and the No. 9 Chevrolet team led over 190 combined laps and grabbed two impressive third- and second-place finishes at the South Virginia short track.

Joey Logano – The Penske Racing ace has become a pretty dominant force at the Martinsville short track since 2014. His last 11 seasons of racing at Martinsville has yielded well over 1,000 laps led, one victory, two runner-up finishes, 10 Top-5 and 18 Top-10 finishes. Logano rides a staggering 11-race Martinsville Top-10 streak with over 300 laps led coming into this weekend's action. The driver of the No. 22 Ford Mustang is coming off Top-15 finishes in his last three events, but the veteran driver should take things up a notch this Sunday. We're confident Logano will race with the leaders and challenge the Top 5 in Sunday's 400-lap Martinsville Speedway battle. 

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota is coming off a strong fourth-place finish this past Sunday at Homestead and looking to keep it rolling at Martinsville. Briscoe has been locked in during his last six starts at Martinsville Speedway. He has qualified well (6.3 average starting spot over the span) and he's finished well with five Top-10 finishes. He's also led 142 laps during that time at the Virginia short track. Briscoe will be making his first ever Martinsville start with Joe Gibbs Racing this weekend. He should be able to tap into the success this team had with Martin Truex Jr at this small oval. The now-retired veteran had two poles and led close to 90 laps in his last three Martinsville Speedway starts.

Bubba Wallace – Coming off an impressive performance and third-place finish at Homestead this past week, Wallace should benefit again in this short track event. He should present similar fantasy racing value at Martinsville Speedway as well. His last five starts at the half-mile track have netted three Top-10 and four Top-15 finishes for a sound 10.0 average finish over the span. In this event one year ago, Wallace put the No. 23 Toyota on the outside pole and drove to a strong fourth-place finish in last season's Cook Out 400. This track really appeals to Wallace and he tends to perform very well at Martinsville Speedway.     

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Martinsville & solid upside

Christopher Bell – Bell is off to a good start this season and has shown the ability to win early in 2025. He won at Phoenix a few weeks ago and while that's not a pure short track, it's smaller than the other ovals we've raced on to this point this season. The driver of the No. 20 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota is a one-time Martinsville winner (2022) and he finished a respectable seventh-place at the half-mile oval in the fall of 2023. Bell's Cup Series career has been brief and his accomplishments at Martinsville Speedway have been few, but he's just beginning to etch out what appears to be a fantastic career of short track racing in the making. Bell and the No. 20 Toyota team will be a sleeper play in this 400-lap Martinsville battle.

Alex Bowman – Bowman is a past Martinsville winner (2021) but his performance at this small oval has been spotty at best over his Cup Series career, thus we've given him the sleeper tag this week. The Hendrick Motorsports veteran flirted with victory lane this past week at Homestead and that momentum will be big visiting Southern Virginia. Bowman was a steady producer in his two Martinsville starts last season. He qualified well in both events and finished eighth-place in this event one year ago. The driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet returned to the track last November and earned a steady 13th-place finish in the Xfinity 500. He should be poised for a good performance this Sunday afternoon at Martinsville Speedway.

Ross Chastain – Chastain returns to the scene of his "Hail Melon" maneuver that netted him a Top-5 finish at Martinsville Speedway three seasons ago and into the championship round of the Chase at Phoenix. The Trackhouse Racing veteran had a tough time earlier in his NASCAR career at Martinsville Speedway, but his last few visits since moving to Trackhouse have been noteworthy. Chastain has nabbed 31 laps led, two Top-5, three Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in his last six starts there for a strong 9.7 average finish over the span. This driver and team are not a major threat to win the Cook Out 400, but they are good enough to battle through the field and forge a Top-10 or Top-15 finish.

Josh Berry – While this will only be Berry's third-career Cup start at Martinsville, there are signals of potential success. He's qualified well in his two prior starts (9.0 average start) and that's important at this short track. He also finished reasonably well in his last start here in November of last year. Berry drove his former No. 4 Ford to a respectable 16th-place finish in the Xfinity 500. This driver and team have been quite the sensation the past few weeks. Berry and his Wood Brothers team scored a Top-5 finish in the Arizona desert and then followed that up with a stunning victory in Las Vegas. They'll ride that momentum into Martinsville Speedway this Sunday and look for a Top-10 finish in the Cook Out 400.     

Austin Cindric – While he's been a bit inconsistent to start the season, Cindric showed some versatility scoring a Top-10 finish at Las Vegas a couple weeks ago. Unfortunately, he wouldn't be quite that good at Homestead this past week, but we believe this will be another uptick weekend for the driver of the No. 2 Ford. Cindric has scored a pair of Top-10 finishes in his last three Martinsville Speedway starts. While we don't typically think of the Penske Racing driver as a short track specialist, Cindric seems to be catching on to the ins-and-outs of racing at this half-mile oval. He scored his best-career finish at the track last November when Cindric hustled to an impressive fourth-place finish in the Xfinity 500. The notes from that outing should come in handy this weekend.  

Chris Buescher – The veteran driver has started the season well with four Top 10's through the first six events, and Buescher is coming off a strong sixth-place finish at Homestead this past weekend. He'll ride that momentum into Southern Virginia this week for the Cook Out 400. Buescher doesn't have career-long success at Martinsville like some of the drivers in the article this week, but he has had recent success. In a lot of ways that's more important. The driver of the No. 17 Ford has grabbed two Top-10 and six Top-15 finishes in his last eight Martinsville starts. The average finish is a respectable 16.0. Buescher scored a Top-5 finish a few weeks ago at the small Phoenix oval and that's a good omen for his prospects this Sunday at Martinsville Speedway.

Slow Down - Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – Busch is a two-time Martinsville winner and his strong 44-percent Top-5 rate at the short track would normally lock him into contender's status this week. However, the No. 8 RCR team and Busch are struggling to find consistency right now. His three Top 10's thus far this season have been offset by three puzzling finishes outside the Top 20. Martinsville Speedway has been a tough nut to crack for this veteran driver in recent visits. He has no Top-15 finishes in his last five starts and four of those have been efforts outside the Top 20. Frankly the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet is struggling to stay on the lead lap at Martinsville and Busch hasn't led a single lap here since the 2020 season.

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing youngster is fresh off an impressive eighth-place finish at Homestead and he's been trying to build some momentum in recent weeks. However, Martinsville Speedway has been nothing but a track of struggles for Reddick to this point in his career. In 10 previous Cup Series starts he has just two Top-10 finishes (20-percent) and an inflated 20.8 average finish. In his last start at Martinsville Speedway last November, Reddick struggled to a 34th-place finish and that was likely a result of his poor qualifying effort that weekend. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has been a pretty steady short track performer to this point in his NASCAR career, but Reddick has had his struggles at the Martinsville short track.

Ty Gibbs – You couldn't start the season much tougher than Gibbs and the No. 54 Toyota team. The young driver has just one Top-20 finish to this point and is a distant 34th-place in the driver points coming to Martinsville Speedway. Hopes for a rebound this weekend would be misplaced. Gibbs has had his struggles at this oval in his brief Cup Series career. He has no Top-15 finishes in five starts and his last effort was a disappointing 32nd-place finish in last November's Xfinity 500. That has cratered his average finish at the track to a lowly 21.2. Gibbs has only finished on the lead lap in one of his five starts at Martinsville Speedway. His recent 25th-place finish at Phoenix is likely a good barometer of what to expect for this driver and team this weekend.

Michael McDowell – Despite some reasonably good racing by McDowell with his new Spire Motorsports team (14th in the standings) he's a driver to fade this Sunday for the Cook Out 400. McDowell has had career-long struggles at Martinsville Speedway. In 28 starts he's never collected a single Top-10 finish and only one Top-15 finish. He hasn't cracked the Top 20 in his last three starts in Southern Virginia and his average finish at this track stands at a disappointing 28.3. Qualifying well is a major problem as McDowell has just one start inside the Top 10 in all his racing here since the 2008 season. The driver of the No. 71 Chevrolet recently finished 27th-place at the Phoenix oval and that's like a good mark to expect for Martinsville as well.