This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
My Bariatric Solutions 300
Location: Fort Worth, Texas
Course: Texas Motor Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile quad-oval
Laps: 200
Race Preview
Austin Cindric finally earned his first wins of the season last week, sweeping the weekend double-header at the track. The pair of victories secure his position in the playoffs with less than 10 races remaining until the knockout stages get underway. Brandon Brown, Myatt Snider and Jeremy Clements are all battling for the 12th and final playoff spot with just 30 points separating the trio. That battle resumes this weekend in Texas where the last five races at the track produced five different winners. However, Kyle Busch is the only prior Texas winner entered in this weekend's race. Starting up front matters at this track, too. No driver has started outside of the top 10 and won here since 2008 when Busch won from the 31st starting position.
Key Stats at Texas Motor Speedway
- Number of races: 38
- Winners from pole: 6
- Winners from top-5 starters: 24
- Winners from top-10 starters: 32
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
- Fastest race: 151.707 mph
Previous 10 Texas Winners
2019 fall - Christopher Bell
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
2018 fall - Cole Custer
2018 spring - Ryan Blaney
2017 fall - Erik Jones
2017 spring - Erik Jones
2016 fall - Kyle Larson
2016 spring - Kyle Busch
2015 fall - Brad Keselowski
2015 spring - Erik Jones
With just one former track winner entered into Saturday's race, the odds would suggest another first-time Texas winner this weekend. The track is one of three tracks on the NASCAR calendar to feature the 1.5-mile quad-oval configuration. Similar to Atlanta and Charlotte, Texas is a horsepower and handling circuit. The surface is less abrasive than Atlanta due to a more recent repave project. Additionally, Texas features lower banking in turns 1 and 2 than in turns 3 and 4. The difference resents a unique challenge for drivers as they may have to take different lines at opposite ends of the track to find where their cars work best. Still, maximizing corner speed through the middle will produce the fastest speeds at the end of the straights, opening the door to passes in the turns.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $17,000
Chase Briscoe - $11,300
Austin Cindric - $10,800
Ross Chastain - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Justin Allgaier - $9,700
Harrison Burton - $9,400
Brandon Jones - $9,100
Alex Labbe - $8,900
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Jeremy Clements - $8,700
Riley Herbst - $8,500
Anthony Alfredo - $8,300
Michael Annett - $7,700
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Myatt Snider - $7,400
Brett Moffitt - $7,100
Ryan Sieg - $6,500
Stephen Leicht - $5,500
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Chase Briscoe - $11,300
Ross Chastain - $10,000
Riley Herbst - $8,500
Myatt Snider - $7,400
Josh Williams - $6,400
Vinnie Miller - $6,200
Chase Briscoe finished fourth at Texas in this race last year and has been the most successful Xfinity regular so far this season. Another top-five finish on Saturday would be his fifth in as many races. Ross Chastain may be next in line for a win this week. The Kaulig Racing driver finished second at Texas last fall, leading 29 laps. He has only finished outside of the top 10 twice this season and is the highest-placed driver in the championship standings without a win. Riley Herbst is also looking for a win to finalize his ticket to the playoffs. He has three top-10s from the last five races, and this week will be his first Texas start. Another playoff contender looking for a win to guarantee his spot in the battle is Myatt Snider. He sits just outside the top 12 and needs consistent top-15 finishes to move into the playoff positions. He has two top-15 finishes from four truck series starts at the track. Josh Williams could be another good option after scoring two 14th-place finishes at the track last season. He is 17th in the championship standings and finished 15th at Kentucky last week. Finishing this roster option is Vinnie Miller, who will start 34th. Miller has only finished outside of the top 30 at Texas once after crashing out of his first series start at the track. He should offer fantasy owners extra points for finish differential this week.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $17,000
Anthony Alfredo - $8,300
Brandon Brown - $6,700
Ryan Sieg - $6,500
Chad Finchum - $6,000
Stephen Leicht - $5,500
Choosing Kyle Busch this week is akin to putting all your fantasy eggs in once basket. His upside is high but comes at a steep price. He will start 28th, but he is one of only a few drivers capable of still winning the race from that spot. By contrast, Anthony Alfredo will start inside the top 10 and will be seeking his fourth top-10 finish in five races if he can finish there or better. Similarly, Brandon Brown will be looking to add another top-15 finish to continue solidifying a place for himself in the championship playoffs. His best Texas finish is 17th. Ryan Sieg brings back-to-back top-10 finishes at Texas into this weekend. His starting position of 18th should also provide fantasy managers additional points for finish differential. Both Chad Finchum and Stephen Leicht will be relied upon for finish differential points. Both drivers start outside of the top 25 and hold the potential to move higher in the field to add points to fantasy rosters. Fantasy managers taking this route will have to rely on Busch making his way to the lead early and going on to win.
