This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
AAA 400 Drive for Autism
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
The NASCAR Sprint Cup series heads to Dover International Speedway this Sunday where Jimmie Johnson has reigned supreme throughout his career. Kyle Busch took the top spot in the Chase for the Sprint Cup last week with his third win of the season and his first at Kansas Speedway. The drivers now face the unique challenge of Dover International Speedway. Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick split the wins here last season, and are likely to be two of the favorites heading into Sunday's event. However, drivers like Martin Truex Jr., Matt Kenseth and Joey Logano will be hungry to knock them off of their perches to grab that elusive and all-important win that will secure a spot in the Chase at the end of the season.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Number of previous races: 92
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 71
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Tony Stewart
2012 fall - Brad Keselowski
2012 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2011 fall - Kurt Busch
2011 spring - Matt Kenseth
Dover is unique in that it's a concrete surface with steep banking. Drivers will tend to run the low line throughout the turns, but there's plenty of room to move a car up the track should the handling allow. The high speeds and banking can be demanding on equipment and that combination can produce plenty of mechanical failures that result in big crashes. Similar to Talladega or Daytona Superspeedways, drivers will need to avoid getting caught by someone else's mistake. Pit road is another area where teams will need to be clean because track position can determine the outcome of this race. Surviving Dover is one thing, but to win is another. Jimmie Johnson leads the current field with 10 Dover victories.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jimmie Johnson - $10,700
Kevin Harvick - $10,400
Matt Kenseth - $10,100
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Carl Edwards - $9,900
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,700
Joey Logano - $9,600
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $9,400
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Brad Keselowski - $8,900
Kasey Kahne - $8,500
Denny Hamlin - $8,300
Austin Dillon - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Kyle Larson - $7,900
Aric Almirola - $6,700
Danica Patrick - $6,200
Casey Mears - $6,100
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jimmie Johnson - $10,700
Kevin Harvick - $10,400
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,700
A.J. Allmendinger - $6,900
Aric Almirola - $6,700
David Ragan - $5,600
It shouldn't come as much of a surprise that Johnson and Harvick lead the lower-risk lineup option for Dover. Johnson has 10 victories at the track, and Harvick has led almost 700 laps in his last four Dover races and won here last fall. You can't ask for much more than that. Backing them up is Truex Jr. who dominated at Kansas last week only to be struck down with pit trouble. He's also a former Dover winner and hasn't finished lower than 11th here in his last four starts. Allmendinger is having one of his best seasons to date, too. His top-10 last week was his third of the year and he also has three top-10s from 16 career Dover efforts. Aric Almirola delivered consecutive fifth-place Dover finishes last season, and David Ragan scored his best career Dover finish in this race last season (13th).
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $9,400
Brad Keselowski - $8,900
Kasey Kahne - $8,500
Denny Hamlin - $8,300
Kyle Larson - $7,900
Paul Menard - $6,700
Dale Earnhardt Jr. has had a very respectable career at Dover. His win from 2001 and his 12 top-10s from 32 starts push him to the top of the higher-risk lineup option. He also has four top-fives from 11 races so far this season. Brad Keselowski won at Dover in 2012, has two runner-up finishes plus no finishes worse than 16th in his last four starts at the track. Kasey Kahne underperformed a bit last week in Kansas but finished inside the top 10 in both Dover visits last season. Also impressive in his four career Dover starts is Kyle Larson. He has a worst finish of 11th at the track with an average result of 7.2 despite not leading any laps. Paul Menard rounds out the lineup confidently having finished eighth in this race last season. His 2016 season may not be off to the best start, but a trip to Dover could give him the confidence he needs to turn things around starting this weekend.
