This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
Location: Loudon, N.H.
Course: New Hampshire Motor Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 301
Race Preview
Martin Truex Jr. pulled off the sweep at Kentucky Speedway, winning pole position, both stages and the race win. It was Truex' fourth victory of the season, and he was in a class of his own the entire weekend. His Furniture Row Racing team has been one of the hottest on the circuit in recent weeks, winning three of the last six races and only missing a top-five once in the last seven. Truex is demonstrating the type of form that carried him to the championship last year. Still, Kevin Harvick and Kyle Busch aren't going to go away quietly. Those drivers were the ones to beat early in 2018 and continue to rack up regular wins and top finishes. There has been little to choose between the trio for fantasy owners, but Toyota may be the manufacturer to beat now as Ford has plateaued. Kyle Busch is the favorite of the group at New Hampshire this week with three victories, but Harvick is right behind him with two. Truex has never won at this track but could very well be in the mix for his first at the track this Sunday. He led more than 100 laps in each of the last two races at the track. Joe Gibbs Racing swept the New Hampshire victories last season with Busch and Denny Hamlin each visiting Victory Lane. Toyota may again have the fantasy edge this week, especially considering Ford has only won two New Hampshire races in the last nine years.
Key Stats at New Hampshire Motor Speedway
• Number of previous races: 46
• Winners from pole: 6
• Winners from top-5 starters: 13
• Winners from top-10 starters: 25
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 9
• Fastest race: 117.134 mph
Last 10 New Hampshire Winners
2017 fall - Kyle Busch
2017 spring - Denny Hamlin
2016 fall - Kevin Harvick
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Matt Kenseth
2015 spring - Kyle Busch
2014 fall - Joey Logano
2014 spring - Brad Keselowski
2013 fall - Matt Kenseth
2013 spring - Brian Vickers
New Hampshire is a 1.0-mile oval that requires heavy braking into the tight turns, and early launches down the long straights. The tight turns make track position valuable. The tire strategy that some teams played last week may come into focus again this week as drivers work to get clean air at the front of the field. Winners typically start inside the top 10. Additionally, with 301 scheduled laps, fantasy players will want to find the driver they think is capable of spending the most time out front. The fast straights put pressure on brakes, and drivers will need to manage their equipment for runs later in the race. The quick circuit drives a bit more like a short track, but the racing can get spread out due to the longer lap distance. Drivers will work hard inside and out to get passes completed on their preferred line. Keeping momentum through the middle of the sweeping turns will help drivers get that run down the long straights to out brake others at corner entry. The relatively flat banking will also stress right-side tires, and failing to manage break temperature can make that situation even worse.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $11,600
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,300
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Kyle Larson - $9,900
Brad Keselowski - $9,700
Clint Bowyer - $9,200
Chase Elliott - $8,900
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Ryan Blaney - $8,600
Aric Almirola - $8,300
Erik Jones - $8,200
Daniel Suarez - $7,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Matt Kenseth - $6,800
Paul Menard - $6,600
William Byron - $6,000
David Ragan - $5,400
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $11,600
Brad Keselowski - $9,700
Clint Bowyer - $9,200
Daniel Suarez - $7,100
Matt Kenseth - $6,800
Ty Dillon - $5,500
Busch and Keselowski lead off the lower-risk option for the second week in a row. Busch won here last fall and was fastest in the weekend's opening practice, and Keselowski could ride his recent improvement to another top finish at the track he won at in 2014. Pit trouble stymied his progress last week in Kentucky, but the team is scratching the surface of finding their way into Victory Lane. Bowyer already has two wins under his belt this season, and he also brings two track wins to fantasy rosters this week. He dominated New Hampshire in 2007, leading 222 laps of the 300 raced. He has been a regular contender each week and should be so again. Fantasy owners should also not forget about Suarez. The driver presents a huge bargain this week after delivering two top-10 finishes at this track last year while also in the midst of an upward swing of 2018 finishes recently. While Kenseth and Dillon are certainly longshots this week, Kenseth could be a confident selection. He has always been quick at New Hampshire, and this week could be the best barometer of how much Roush Fenway Racing has improved since his return. Dillon, for his part, delivered positive finish differential here both visits last year including his finish of 16th in the spring race.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,300
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
Ryan Blaney - $8,600
Erik Jones - $8,200
A.J. Allmendinger - $6,200
Landon Cassill - $4,700
New Hampshire's higher-risk lineup is top-heavier than the lower-risk option. Having Truex and Harvick in the same lineup gives fantasy players a good shot at collecting high laps-led totals, and they'll certainly have a shot at the win, too. Fantasy players who choose this lineup will need those points from since they won't have much budget left to select more productive drivers in the remaining roster slots. Blaney and Jones also skew more to the expensive side, but with good reason. Jones adds another Toyota to the roster, and Blaney continues to make a good case for, "best of the rest" status of the nonwinners so far in 2018. Jones had a great season at New Hampshire in 2017 despite crashing out of the spring race. From there the lineup needs to take some gambles. Allmendinger and Cassill are very hit or miss, but both should stay in the race and potentially offer points through finish differential. Either one of these drivers finishing in the top 20 would be a good day for him and for fantasy owners, too.
