This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Gander Outdoors 400
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
NASCAR's first road course race at Charlotte Motor Speedway left the playoff contenders waiting for the dust to settle before confirming who would advance to the round of 12 and who would have their championship hopes eliminated. Denny Hamlin, Erik Jones, Austin Dillon and Jimmie Johnson all failed to make it through to the next round, while Kyle Larson squeaked through in a heavily damaged car. The race was an unpredictable affair with Johnson almost advancing until he lost control in the final chicane and collided with Martin Truex Jr., ruining both drivers' chances at winning. Ryan Blaney drove through the wreckage and claimed his first victory of the season. This week at Dover the points will be reset and the 12 remaining drivers have it all to do again through the next three races. This round includes another unknown in Talladega Superspeedway, though. The restrictor-plate behemoth means many teams will be placing extra emphasis on success this weekend at Dover. The "Monster Mile" has a knack for hard racing and punishing mistakes. Drivers will have to be on their toes all afternoon as they race to get an early entry into the final eight.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Number of previous races: 97
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 56
• Winners from top-10 starters: 75
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2018 spring - Kevin Harvick
2017 fall - Kyle Busch
2017 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2016 fall - Martin Truex Jr.
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
Had Jimmie Johnson advanced he might be feeling very bullish about this weekend's race where he has an incredible 11 career victories. Kevin Harvick won at the circuit earlier this season in dominating fashion while Kyle Busch is the defending winner of the fall race. Dover is a unique circuit with its punishing concrete surface and high speeds. Perhaps the biggest key to success at the track is staying on top of the changing conditions. Drivers say that handling characteristics change dramatically throughout the race as rubber wears into the surface. Making the right adjustments at the right time cane mean the difference between a car running away with the win or falling back into the pack. This track tends to see crashes, and the confines mean drivers can easily get caught in someone else's trouble. In the spring just three laps passed before the first caution period waved. Saving fuel to gain stage points early could be a strategy fantasy owners see employed again this weekend, but teams gambling for the race win will likely make moves early to set themselves up to have optimal track position for the final stage.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $12,100
Kyle Busch - $11,800
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $10,700
Kyle Larson - $10,200
Chase Elliott - $9,900
Clint Bowyer - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Joey Logano - $8,900
Aric Almirola - $8,300
Jimmie Johnson - $8,200
Ryan Newman - $7,800
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Jamie McMurray - $7,500
Alex Bowman - $7,300
Ricky Stenhouse Jr, - $6,000
David Ragan - $5,500
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,500
Clint Bowyer - $9,300
Aric Almirola - $8,300
Ryan Newman - $7,800
Alex Bowman - $7,300
Michael McDowell - $5,600
Only a last-turn crash kept Martin Truex Jr. from winning on the road course last week, and he'll be hungry to put that disappointment behind him at Dover. He has been exceptionally quick at the track with two wins in 25 starts and four consecutive top-fives heading into this weekend. Teammates Clint Bowyer and Aric Almirola both finished in the top 15 at Dover in the spring with Bowyer taking the runner-up spot. Stewart-Haas Racing knows what this track needs and they have been consistent in getting all of their cars toward the top of the speed charts. Ryan Newman's replacement in the No. 31 machine was announced this week, but he still has plenty to race for this weekend. He leads the standings among non-playoff drivers and has three prior wins at this track. Alex Bowman remains in playoff contention after a hard-fought first round, and will hope to do the same again in the second. He finished 23rd at the track earlier this year, but led 26 laps that afternoon. Adding a better finish to those laps led would be a big payoff for fantasy owners that put their trust in him this week. Michael McDowell finishes off the lower-risk selections. He had a long stretch of DNFs at Dover earlier in his career, but has the hang of it recently. He finished 22nd there earlier this season after starting 29th, and has improved his finish from his starting position in each of his last four races at the circuit.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Larson - $10,200
Chase Elliott - $9,900
Jimmie Johnson - $8,200
Daniel Suarez - $8,000
Matt Kenseth - $7,100
A.J. Allmendinger - $6,500
Not giving up on a demolished racecar sent Kyle Larson into the next round of playoffs last week in Charlotte. He won't want to leave it that close again in the round of 12, and can get off on the right foot at Dover. He led more than 100 laps in two of his last three races at the track, and started from pole before finishing 10th earlier this season. His price represents good value compared to the three favorites. Chase Elliott remains alive in the playoff hunt, and led 138 laps before finishing second in this race last season. There is arguably no better driver at this track then Elliott's teammate Jimmie Johnson, too. He has won an astonishing 11 races at the track. He will be aiming to overcome last week's huge disappointment, but should be in prime form given how much more speed Hendrick Motorsports is showing in recent weeks. Daniel Suarez is another driver on the back foot after losing his ride for 2019. He has plenty to prove in this race, and it is one of his better tracks. He hasn't finished outside of the top 10 in his three Cup races here and will be using this as an audition for next season. Matt Kenseth still offers fantasy rosters value even though he isn't delivering the finishes he used to. He has three Dover wins and has been cracking the top 20 in his return with Roush Fenway Racing. Finally, A.J. Allmendinger adds another driver looking to impress future employers for 2019. He has three Dover top-10s, and should be expected to take some risks to get a better-than-average finish this weekend with nothing to lose.
