Echopark Texas Grand Prix Preview: A New Date for COTA

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

This weekend the NASCAR Cup Series returns to the Circuit of the Americas road course for their fifth visit after NASCAR's 2021 debut at the facility. This will be the first year that NASCAR will be using the National Course layout, which will shorten the lap by a little over a mile. This layout is a 20-turn, 2.3-mile long road course that is located in Austin, Texas. The event is 95 laps, divided into three stages of 20 laps, 25 laps and 50 laps, which was increased over the 68 laps raced here previously due to the shorter circuit length. Top speeds (94 mph pole) are limited by the highly-technical layout and 20 challenging turns. The circuit is very reminiscent of the many Formula One tracks that dot most of the landscape of Europe. In fact, the facility was created as a venue to specifically host F1 events. The track is really unlike any other road course that NASCAR races on with the possible exception of the Mid-Ohio Sports Car Course. F1 races regularly at COTA and IndyCar and IMSA have raced at the circuit in the recent past. NASCAR has spent the last few seasons making this facility a regular part of its annual Cup Series schedule. This year the event moves up in the calendar three weeks from its prior spot to be race number three of the 2025 season.

We've had incredible racing action at this facility since the event's inception a few years ago. With now four COTA races in hand the data is beginning to accumulate and we're getting a feel for which drivers have started to master this challenging circuit. The usual road racing faces are among the elite here, but some of the oval track guys have found COTA to their liking as well, maybe more so than the average road course. We'll dive into the loop stats and take a look at who has experience early success at Circuit of the Americas. As an aide in driver determination for this event, the loop stats in the table below are from the last four Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Four seasons ago we saw history made with NASCAR running their first-ever Cup Series event on the challenging COTA circuit. The event and weekend would be marred by bad weather, and the race would even be cut short of full distance, but the excitement and action would leave fans yelling for more. NASCAR renewed this event and for the last three seasons we have witnessed incredible racing action on the very technical Texas road course. This is the first road course event in the schedule and it will likely set the standard going forward for future road tracks that NASCAR will visit during the summer and fall.

Last season's Echopark Texas Grand Prix would come down to tons of green-flag racing, pit strategy and a three-driver battle to the finish. William Byron would overcome Christopher Bell and Ty Gibbs in the closing laps and capture his first-career victory on the Texas circuit. The Hendrick Motorsports star would cash in for Chevrolet's third win in the four total races in Austin. The theme has been established. The bowtie brand is at the top of the mountain at COTA and taking on all challengers this weekend to keep control. We'll look at the track, drivers and some parts of last season's race in order to give you the drivers you need to succeed in your fantasy racing games for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix at Circuit of the Americas.      

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Tyler Reddick – Reddick is one of the top road racing performers of the past few seasons. Since elevating to the Cup Series level, he's grabbed three wins, 200 laps led and 15 Top-10 finishes for a stellar 12.4 average finish across his road racing career at NASCAR's top level. The 23XI Racing youngster won this event two years ago for his first COTA victory, in convincing fashion. Reddick now has one pole, 44 laps led, three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his four starts at Circuit of the Americas. The average finish across those starts is a microscopic 5.0 average finish. We've come to expect the No. 45 Toyota racing up front and battling for the win in these events, and we're certain Reddick will do so again this Sunday in Austin. 

William Byron – Byron has started this season on fire and looking to keep it going at COTA this weekend. He's a two-time victor on NASCAR road circuits and has shown dramatic improvement over the past couple seasons. The Hendrick Motorsports star has won the last two pole positions at the Austin road circuit and he cashed in with the victory in last year's Echopark Texas Grand Prix. His 7.3 average finish across four starts in Austin speak to his consistency and improvement here. Considering how strong his last two outings were at Circuit of the Americas (70 combined laps led) and how fast he's been to start this season, Byron seems like a very good play for the first road course battle of 2025.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been a consistent performer on road courses since moving to Trackhouse Racing a few seasons ago, but no course better than the Circuit of the Americas. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has been thick in the middle of the outcome of all four races at the Austin road course. Chastain broke through and took the victory in the 2022 installment after a thrilling last-lap battle with AJ Allmendinger and Alex Bowman. He's led 45 total laps at this facility and managed a stellar 4.0 average finish across his four starts at COTA. Chastain proved those performances were no fluke with his steady seventh-place finish in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran is pretty good on typical road circuits, but he really elevates his game at COTA.           

Christopher Bell – Bell comes to Texas looking to challenge for a win and hopefully to collect a Top-5 finish. He's been a good performer on the road circuits during his Cup Series career with two wins, 54-percent Top-10 rate and sharp 13.5 average finish. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota has crashed out of two of his four starts at Circuit of the Americas, but he has also nabbed a pair of Top-3 finishes. Bell's start in this event one year ago would yield a second-row starting spot on the grid and he'd drive the No. 20 Toyota to an impressive runner-up finish. We believe that Bell will show up this weekend for the Echopark Texas Grand Prix and look to claim their first win at the track.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Despite being winless on road circuits the past couple seasons, we still have to pay major respect to Elliott and his road racing skills. He's a seven-time winner on NASCAR road circuits and carries an improbable 67-percent Top-10 rate on these style tracks. Last season alone, Elliott has managed 18 laps led and three Top-10 finishes (50-percent). He hasn't broken through to win, but Elliott has clearly been a major factor in these races the last couple seasons. The Hendrick Motorsports star won at COTA in 2021 and he managed a strong fourth-place finish at the track in 2022. Elliott missed the Top 10 at Austin last year, but we'd consider that performance the outlier.

Alex Bowman – Bowman is coming off a disappointing finish at Atlanta and looking to rebound this week in Austin. The Hendrick Motorsports star is not really known for his road racing skills as seven of his eight-career victories have come on ovals. However, COTA has been a special exception for the driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet. Bowman has three Top-5 and four Top-10 finishes in his prior starts at Circuit of the Americas for a very sharp 4.3 average finish. He's been battling for the win in the closing laps of each of the previous four races at COTA. While he's probably not as good odds of winning as the names in the contenders list, he's a great outside contender and he'll be racing among the leaders again Sunday at Circuit of the Americas.

Kyle Busch – While road course racing isn't really his big niche, Busch has certain courses where he shines. The Richard Childress Racing star has performed well for years at the winding fast course at Watkins Glen, and COTA mimics many of those characteristics. He led 12 laps in the inaugural race at Austin to nab a Top 10 and returned two seasons ago to battle for the win and finish runner-up in the 2023 installment of the Echopark Texas Grand Prix. After a ninth-place finish here last season, which brings his average finish to a strong 12.3 at this facility and shows that he's battled among the leaders in three of the four prior events at this track. While the sample size is small, the 75-percent Top-10 rate is a good mark of what to expect in the future for this driver and team. Coming off a Top-10 finish at Atlanta this past week; Busch will carry that momentum into Sunday's Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

Ty Gibbs – The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster is looking to turn his slow start to the season around and COTA could be just what the doctor ordered. Clearly Gibbs has some road racing skills as his 33-percent Top-10 rate illustrates. However, the driver of the No. 54 Toyota has been much sharper in his prior two starts at Circuit of the Americas. Gibbs has one Top-5 and two Top-10 finishes in his two starts. In this event one year ago, he sat on the outside pole and finished a very impressive third-place in the EchoPark Automotive Grand Prix. Gibbs was a 50-percent Top-10 finisher on the NASCAR road circuits in 2024.  That's 50-percent rate is an encouraging statistic heading into this road racing battle in Austin.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history of road course racing & solid upside

Austin Cindric – The Penske Racing youngster has had his struggles on ovals, but road racing has always been his true gift. Cindric has 23 Top-10 finishes to this point in his Cup Series career and nine (39-percent) of those have come on the various road and street courses of NASCAR. As it relates to Austin, the driver of the No. 2 Ford has led 17 total laps there and grabbed two Top-10 finishes in his four starts. The average finish is checking in at a respectable 14.3 over the span. Cindric ended last season well grabbing Top 10's at both Watkins Glen and the Charlotte Roval. Given Cindric's success at COTA and in road racing generally speaking, we believe the No. 2 Ford team is a lock for success in Austin this Sunday.   

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford has started the season reasonably well and now we come to a track to demonstrate his skill. Buescher was simply flawless on the road circuits last season. He piloted the RFK Ford very well on these tracks. Buescher would nab a victory at Watkins Glen and five Top 10's and post an impressive 7.2 average finish in the six road racing events of 2024. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing driver took some time to figure COTA out, but he did so in a big way the last two seasons. Buescher has driven to a pair of eighth-place finish his last two starts in Austin despite not qualifying well. The No. 17 team will be focused Sunday in the Echopark Texas Grand Prix.

AJ Allmendinger – The Kaulig Racing veteran gets the fantasy racing nod this weekend in the No. 16 Chevrolet. Allmendinger is an obvious choice. The veteran driver has a lot of experience and success in road course racing. His last six starts alone, Allmendinger grabbed one win (ROVAL) and five Top-10 finishes on these style tracks. It only added to a strong career record for him in this style of racing. Allmendinger has three-career Cup Series victories on road circuits, and he also boasts 11-career trophies on Xfinity Series road courses. In this event last year, the veteran driver peddled to an impressive sixth-place finish at Circuit of the Americas. It was his second Top 10 in four starts at the challenging Texas road course.   

Kyle Larson – Larson gets a bit of a downgrade this week going to the sleepers list, but he does still present some value on the winding Austin circuit. The Hendrick Motorsports star grabbed two victories on the road circuits down the stretch run of last season and carries that momentum into 2025. Larson is not a big threat to win here, and he should not be expected to do so. Still, his road racing ability is good enough forge a hard-fought Top 10. Larson registered a solid 11.7 average finish on these style tracks last season and that's a good indicator for success at COTA. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet sat on the outside pole and raced to a runner-up finish in the inaugural race at Circuit of the Americas, so there is great potential possible.

Connor Zilisch – Trackhouse Racing will field a fourth entry this weekend in Austin. Young rising star Zilisch will climb in the teams No. 87 Chevrolet and attempt to make the field on lap time. The prospect is a good hand at road racing as his resume shows. He grabbed a dominant win from the pole in the Xfinity Series last year at Watkins Glen in addition he collected the ARCA/Menards Series win at the Glen that same weekend. Zilisch has a background of sports car racing in which he's driven to both Rolex 24 at Daytona and 12 Hours of Sebring victories last year. The 18-year-old prodigy may be making his NASCAR Cup Series debut this weekend at COTA, but do not underestimate his ability to race at a very high level in this event.  

Shane van Gisbergen – The one-time Cup Series victor (Chicago Street Course) and two-time Xfinity Series winner on road circuits comes to COTA this weekend for his second-career Cup start at the challenging track. Van Gisbergen was a somewhat disappointing 20th-place finisher in his debut last season at Circuit of the Americas. You could say that was an educational experience and he'll be much better equipped and informed to succeed in his second Cup start in Austin. Van Gisbergen comes from an incredible background of road racing in Australia's Supercars Series where he won multiple championships and dozens of races on Australia's most challenging road circuits. He has tremendous upside in Sunday's EchoPark Texas Grand Prix.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Ryan Blaney – The Penske Racing star was a hit-and-miss performer on the road circuits last season. Blaney would race to three Top 10's and a reasonable 14.7 average finish on these style tracks in 2024. However, the driver of the No. 12 Ford has had his struggles at Circuit of the Americas. Blaney has nabbed just one Top-10 in his four starts here and a 14.0 average finish. His last two starts at Circuit of the Americas have led to disappointing qualifying efforts and distant 21st- and 12th-place finishes. The consistency needed to endorse fantasy racing deployment just simply isn't present with this driver and team. Among the A tier drivers, Blaney is one of the riskier propositions this weekend.

Joey Logano – Logano is in much the same position as his teammate, Ryan Blaney, this weekend. He was a hit-or-miss performer on the road circuits last season with a similar three Top 10's in six starts (50-percent) but also with his struggles at Circuit of the Americas. Logano's previous four starts at the Texas road circuit have yielded just one Top-10 finish and a subpar 18.3 average finish. The Penske Racing star is a homerun threat in road racing, but he's a bigger threat to pull a disappearing act in this field of talented road racing performers. We believe it's best to bench Logano and the No. 22 Ford team this weekend and save their starts for upcoming short tracks and intermediate ovals.

Brad Keselowski – The veteran driver's lack of road racing success was on display last season. Keselowski only nabbed a pair of Top 15's on the road circuits in 2024 and collected an average finish of 21.3. This has mainly been his NASCAR career on road circuits outside of some isolated success at Watkins Glen. In Keselowski's four prior starts at COTA, he's grabbed only one Top-15 finish and accumulated an average finish of 25.3. He struggled in this event one year ago and finished a disappointing 33rd-place. It was his second-straight season finishing outside the Top 30 at Circuit of the Americas. We would recommend passing on Keselowski for Sunday's road racing battle in Texas.

Bubba Wallace – Although Wallace has improved his road racing skills the past year or so, he's still clearly a fantasy racing downgrade this weekend at Circuit of the Americas. The 23XI Racing veteran is a much more skilled short track and superspeedway performer by the numbers. Wallace has DNF'd in three of his four starts at COTA and accumulated an average finish of 32.3. Despite racing reasonably well in this event one year ago, the history is still stacked against him in this race. When we look at Wallace's career numbers on road circuits, he has a 10-percent Top-10 rate and 22.8 average finish. Those numbers don't instill much confidence and indicate we should save his starts for the upcoming short tracks.