This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
We're already entering our third weekend of the NASCAR calendar and have had action-packed racing in all series so far. We also get the return of F1 this weekend, packing some racing into Friday (qualifying) and Saturday (race). We'll give our PrizePicks selections for both the Bahrain Grand Prix and the Pennzoil 400.
Pennzoil 400
After beginning the season with a pair of races at Superspeedway style tracks, the shift to Las Vegas has many in the sport stating that this weekend is the true beginning of the NASCAR schedule. Like it or not, the first two races of the season count for the standings, but on the other hand, we should avoid the big and almost unending crashes that we've seen in the first two races – particularly in Atlanta.
Vegas is a classic intermediate track and we're likely to see a lot of the traditional superstar names rise to the top of the field.
Alex Bowman – Qualify less than 14.5
Bowman hasn't had great results at Las Vegas of late, so I'm steering clear of his race points prop. Qualifying is a different story. We know that Hendrick will bring a quick car, and Bowman has qualified inside the top 14 in seven consecutive races at this track.
Ross Chastain- Qualifying more than 8.5; more than 32.5 NASCAR Points (top-10 finish)
Chastain has the opposite profile of Bowman. He's never qualified better than eighth at Vegas, yet has three finishes inside the top five in the last four races. Chastain also hasn't looked particularly quick over one lap early this season, beginning each of the first two races in 21st place. We know he won't be shy about moving up the field and has consistently done so at this track.
Ty Gibbs – Over 27.5 NASCAR points (better than 15th)
There was considerable hype surrounding Gibbs entering this season. He's had a fairly nondescript start and isn't known for his prowess on Superspeedways, yet still would have topped this projection at both Daytona and Atlanta. Gibbs' record at intermediate tracks hasn't been spectacular either, but two things make me optimistic. First is that he's only in his second full season in the Cup Series and should continue to improve. Second is that despite Chevy collecting both wins to this point, Toyota remains confident in its redesigned car. We should be able to see it shine on this intermediate track.
Martin Truex Jr. – Over 33.5 (better than 10th)
Perhaps no drivers are happier than Truex or Kyle Larson to be moving away from Superspeedways. Neither has performed well in that style of track, but both have lengthy track records of elite levels of results pretty much everywhere else. Truex has been particularly elite at Vegas, tallying top-ten finishes in each of his last six races there. Larson won't be listed as a best bet because he has less margin for error (he has to finish at least sixth to top his projection) but is still a solid choice for those looking to bank on the drivers with elite results at this track.
Kyle Busch – Over 34.5 (better than ninth)
Larson enters the weekend as the favorite to win the Pennzoil 400, but there's a strong case to be made for Busch. He has five top-five finishes at this track in the last six races. Admittedly, most of those results came as a member of Joe Gibbs Racing, but he also pulled off a third-place finish at the fall race last season with Richard Childress Racing. Busch has also proven to have plenty of speed early this season, leading laps in both Dayton and Atlanta and coming within hundredths of a second of victory at the latter track last weekend.
Bahrain Grand Prix
We'll keep things light for the first week of F1 as we get a lay of the land. In one sense, less information offers opportunity, but I'd rather get at least something of a sample before venturing heavily into picks. There are projections available for F1 points earned, first pit stop times and overtake points.
Pit stop times are self-explanatory. F1 points are based on the sport's point-scoring system, which can be found on the site. An additional point is awarded for the fastest lap. The overtake points are also fairly straightforward, though an overtake by a teammate is worth 0.5 extra points, whether positive or negative.
Oscar Piastri – over 2.0 F1 points (better than 9th)
Unlike the 2023 season, the McLaren appears to be fast from the start. Even better is that Piastri also kept up with teammate Lando Norris, as the duo qualified seventh and eighth for this race. All he needs to do from there is maintain his position. Having Lewis Hamilton in ninth makes this slightly uncomfortable, but it's equally possible that Piastri could come out ahead of his teammate depending on pit strategy, and perhaps Fernando Alonso.
Sergio Perez- over 13.5 F1 points (podium finish)
Perez's seat at Red Bull is in doubt for 2025, but that's primarily a result of his struggles at qualifying rather than in the race. He turned in a solid session in the opening round of 2024 and will start fifth on grid. We don't know the exact pace advantage that Red Bull will have this season, but it's safe to project them as the fastest team once again. In contrast, Ferrari was known as a fast car over one lap in 2023, with their performance lagging during the race. With both Charles Leclerc and Carlos Sainz Jr. ahead of Perez on the grid to start, Perez should have little trouble making it to a podium position if trends carry over from last season.
