Grant Park 165
Location: Chicago, Ill.
Course: Chicago Street Course
Format: 2.2-mile road course
Laps: 75
NASCAR Grant Park 165 Race Preview
Former NASCAR Cup Series champion Chase Elliott survived to win at his home track last week, securing his spot in this season's championship playoffs. He became the 12th different driver to win his way in, which leaves just four spots to be claimed with eight races still remaining. This weekend the series returns to the streets of Chicago and if the past is anything to go by, this race could jumble the playoff picture again. Shane van Gisbergen, who won a few weeks ago at Mexico, won this race's calendar debut while Alex Bowman, who is currently 15th in the standings, won a rain-impacted race last year. This will be the third road course race of the season and the first of two consecutively with a trip out west to Sonoma next week. As is typical, several road course specialists will be out to emulate SVG's win two years ago, but competition to get to Victory Lane will be tight with the playoff battle heating up and drivers getting more accustomed to racing on Chicago's city streets.
Key Stats at Chicago
- Number of races: 2
- Winners from pole: 0
- Winners from top-5 starters: 1
- Winners from top-10 starters: 2
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 0
- Fastest race: 60.281 mph
Previous Grant Park Winners
2024 - Alex Bowman
2023 - Shane van Gisbergen
The Chicago Street Circuit is a unique road course made up of normal streets that aren't as clean, flat, or smooth as permanent race courses. City streets have crowns, different grip levels, and off-camber turns that are challenging under the best of circumstances, and this weekend rain is expected to impact the racing again. Despite the challenges of racing on city streets, the course's many 90-degree turns offer many opportunities for passing, which has made Chicago's races exciting. Most challenging for the drivers under the conditions is finding enough grip. Getting the power down on the greasy track to have as quick of an entry into the next turn as possible is where differences can be made. Traction is expected to be at a premium and cars that can find the most will be able to move through the field, making passes or building gaps. As usual, road course races are track position focused with strategy playing a key role in the outcome. Fantasy players should look for drivers starting in the first few rows, but keep in mind that unexpected rain or cautions can disrupt even the best laid plans.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Grant Park 165 (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Shane van Gisbergen - $12,000
Kyle Larson - $10,500
Christopher Bell - $10,200
William Byron - $10,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Tyler Reddick - $9,800
Chase Elliott - $9,500
Ty Gibbs - $9,300
AJ Allmendinger - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Alex Bowman - $8,800
Chris Buescher - $8,600
Michael McDowell - $8,300
Ross Chastain - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Austin Cindric - $7,800
Kyle Busch - $7,700
Will Brown - $7,300
Zane Smith - $6,000
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Grant Park 165
Christopher Bell - $10,200
Ty Gibbs - $9,300
Michael McDowell - $8,300
Austin Cindric - $7,800
Will Brown - $7,300
Denny Hamlin - $7,100
Shane van Gisbergen is the clear favorite to win again at Chicago, but his price this week makes his selection prohibitive. That isn't a bad thing since there are many drivers that could potentially win as well. One of those drivers is Christopher Bell (DK $10,200, FD $13,500). The Joe Gibbs Racing driver's best Chicago finish is only 18th, but his average qualifying effort was 5.5 and he led a combined 51 laps in the two races. Bell has also won and finished second in the two road course races held so far this season. That is the best average finish on road courses this season, and Chicago is a venue Bell should keep those results coming. If Bell wasn't enough, his teammate Ty Gibbs (DK $9,300, FD $12,500) boasts one of the best average finishes at Chicago. Gibbs persevered through the two races' variable conditions and many pitfalls to finish in the top 10 both times. His best finish was last year's third-place result after starting on the front row. He also led 17 laps that day. While it is only two races, Gibbs is one of just three drivers to have finished in the top 10 in both Chicago visits. One of the other drivers that can boast that type of Chicago success is Michael McDowell (DK $8,300, FD $9,000). The Spire Motorsports driver has enviable statistics at this track with an average start of 4.5 and and average finish of 6.0. McDowell has one career road course win and finished 11th and fifth in the two road course races run so far this season.
There are still a number of productive road racers left to consider. Austin Cindric (DK $7,800, FD $6,800) should be one of them. We talk frequently of Cindric's prowess in the Xfinity Series on road courses, and some of that is finally manifesting in this series. His drive at Mexico just a few weeks ago on slick tires in rainy conditions demonstrates his ability at these tracks. He just needs a full race with an effective strategy to capitalize on it. In 2023 at Chicago he drove from the 31st starting spot to finish sixth and then came home 15th after starting 21st last season. A better qualifying effort this week could unlock a world of potential from him Sunday afternoon. A lesser-known name to NASCAR fans is Will Brown ($7,300, FD $7,500). The Australian will be making his second series start and hails from the Supercars series where he is currently second in the standings with one win. Expecting Brown to win like SVG did in 2023 is a stretch considering this will be the third track visit for the majority of the field with little time to get up to speed. However, Brown should get better as the race wears on and a top finish could be within reach. Lastly, how often can fantasy players get Denny Hamlin (DK $7,100, FD $6,500) this deep in the order? And why not take him? Hamlin has won on road courses and consistently places inside the top 10. He is on a great run of form despite the troubles endured at Atlanta, and he qualified on pole at Chicago in 2023. Hamlin and team will figure out a way to maximize points this week even if they aren't capable of winning, and that is great value for fantasy players who can choose him.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Grant Park 165
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 10:00 AM ET Saturday
Race Winner - Shane van Gisbergen +185, Christopher Bell +750
Top-Five Finish - Kyle Busch +350
Top-10 Finish - Austin Cindric +180
Group Winner - William Byron, Michael McDowell +275, Chris Buescher, Alex Bowman
Winning Manufacturer - Toyota +275
Yet again, Shane van Gisbergen's odds are not giving wagerers any value. So many things can happen during a NASCAR race, let along a street-course race, odds like his are very tough to take. To give perspective, Kyle Larson at many circuits this year has been the clear favorite at +350. For four times the payout, fans can grab Christopher Bell, who also has a legitimate shot at victory. Bell finished first and second in the two road course races so far this season and has led 51 laps in the prior two Chicago races. By taking Bell, wagerers can also potentially leave some money in their budget to grab some long-shot options as well.
Kyle Busch and Austin Cindric also make attractive options for top-five and top-10 finishes. Busch has been consistent at Chicago with two top-10 finishes. One of those was his fifth-place finish in 2023, and those results all have come from starting spots outside of the top 15. Austin Cindric finished sixth in 2023 despite starting 31st, too. Cindric might even have more upside. There is rain in the forecast for Sunday, and his run on dry tires in the wet at Mexico was nothing but impressive. With better qualifying and a sound pit strategy Sunday, both of these drivers should feel confident of walking away with top finishes. Similarly, Michael McDowell, with his top finishing average at this track, is worth considering when pitted against Byron, Buescher, and Bowman. His fifth-place finish at Mexico topped all but Bowman, and and his consistency at this track gives him an edge that is a relatively confident option this week.
One final wager to consider is Toyota as winning manufacturer. With drivers like Christopher Bell, Ty Gibbs, and Tyler Reddick behind the wheel, Toyota isn't one to snooze on. The race favorites may be driving Chevrolets, but Toyota has a stacked lineup, too. Denny Hamlin landed pole in 2023, Gibbs started second in 2024, and Toyota drivers finished second and third in this race last season. With just a few things going their direction, several Toyota drivers are capable of visiting Victory Lane, and odds for that versus the favorites are significantly more profitable with a relatively similar amount of likelihood.
