This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Duels at Daytona
Location: Daytona, Fla.
Course: Daytona International Speedway
Format: 2.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 60
Race Preview
The start of the 2025 NASCAR Cup Series looms this weekend with one of the biggest prizes of the season in Sunday's Daytona 500. In order to race on Sunday, you must first qualify, though. The traditional Duels at Daytona get the high-bank racing underway Thursday night with the results setting the starting order for Sunday's big race. Toyotas, driven by Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell, swept victories in the qualifying races in 2024, but it was William Byron and his Chevrolet who took the biggest prize with the Daytona 500 victory that following Sunday. His win from the 18th starting spot, and Harrison Burton's win in the last race at Daytona from 20th, show that starting position in this long and unpredictable race should be taken with a grain of salt. However, Thursday's Duel races give fantasy players the best possible preview of what to expect Sunday. Players should pay close attention to what drivers and cars can move forward through the field, who works together in the draft (and who do not), and how teams perform on pit road. All of those factors will come into play over Sunday's 500-mile race, and the team that puts the pieces together the best, while making the fewest mistakes, should be in contention for the win.
Key Stats at Daytona International Speedway (points races)
- Number of races: 155
- Winners from pole: 26
- Winners from top-5 starters: 75
- Winners from top-10 starters: 114
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 14
- Fastest race: 183.295 mph
Previous 10 Daytona Duels Winners
2024 Duel No. 2 - Christopher Bell
2024 Duel No. 1 - Tyler Reddick
2023 Duel No. 2 - Aric Almirola
2023 Duel No. 1 - Joey Logano
2022 Duel No. 2 - Chris Buescher
2022 Duel No. 1 - Brad Keselowski
2021 Duel No. 2 - Austin Dillon
2021 Duel No. 1 - Aric Almirola
2020 Duel No. 2 - William Byron
2020 Duel No. 1 - Joey Logano
With nine cars not guaranteed a starting spot in Sunday's Daytona 500, this year's Duels are more than a simple procession like in recent memory. Roughly half of those nine open entries will find their way into the race and only three will enter Thursday night's contest relatively assured of racing on Sunday (Martin Truex Jr., Jimmie Johnson, and Helio Castroneves). Much more is on the line for the other six open-entry drivers than the majority of entrants as they have to race their way into Sunday's spectacle. For the full-time entries, different agendas are on tap. The two front-row qualifiers from Wednesday (Chase Briscoe and Austin Cindric) are likely to get a feel for their cars in racing conditions, but will be loathe to risk too much and lose their top starting spots in an accident. Those two may drop to the back after they feel they've learned everything they can. Everyone else will be trying to get a decent starting spot for the 500, fine tuning their setups for that bigger prize, and trying to avoid any significant setbacks that might impact their chances on Sunday. Thursday night is an opportunity to get a feel for what Sunday's race might present and knock off any rust that might have built up during the winter. In short, fantasy players will want to focus on moments that matter in Thursday's races versus the race as a whole. Identifying which cars work together, which cars don't, and which cars are able to come forward in the pack could offer a better assessment of potential success on Sunday than simply where they may finish Thursday night.
RotoWire NASCAR DFS Tools
DraftKings Value Picks for the Duels at Daytona (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Ryan Blaney - $9,700 - Duel 2
Bubba Wallace - $9,600 - Duel 1
Brad Keselowski - $9,300 - Duel 2
Ross Chastain - $9,200 - Duel 1
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Chris Buescher - $8,700 - Duel 2
Chase Elliott - $8,600 - Duel 1
Justin Allgaier - $8,400 - Duel 1
Joey Logano - $8,400 - Duel 2
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kyle Busch - $8,000 - Duel 1
Carson Hocevar - $7,800 - Duel 1
Cole Custer - $7,600 - Duel 2
John Hunter Nemechek - $7,400 - Duel 2
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Justin Haley - $7,400 - Duel 1
Michael McDowell - $6,400 - Duel 1
Noah Gragson - $6,400 - Duel 2
Riley Herbst - $6,200 - Duel 2
NASCAR DFS Picks for the Duels at Daytona
Duel 1
Bubba Wallace - $9,600
Ross Chastain - $9,200
Justin Allgaier - $8,400
Carson Hocevar - $7,800
Ryan Preece - $7,600
Justin Haley - $7,400
Duel 2
Ryan Blaney - $9,700
Brad Keselowski - $9,300
Chris Buescher - $8,700
Joey Logano - $8,400
Cole Custer - $7,600
Riley Herbst - $6,200
Setting a fantasy lineup for the first race of a season, at a superspeedway, with little to go by from a single practice session, makes this Thursday's Duels difficult to decipher. However, we know that drivers and teams will have differing goals for the night, which gives some insight into where to look. First, players should look at historically good racers in the draft at Daytona and Talladega, and preferably find those drivers starting further back in their qualifying races. This leads us to Bubba Wallace and Ryan Blaney as our two top choices. Both start 10th or lower and tend to be in the mix for the wins at these tracks at the end. Next in line would be Ross Chastain and Brad Keselowski. Again, these are two good superspeedway drivers who should race to win, if possible, Thursday night.
Next, fantasy players will want to find drivers with extra incentive to race hard versus saving their car for Sunday. A driver that definitely needs to give his all is Justin Allgaier. The NASCAR Xfinity Series ace is in a one-off Daytona attempt for JR Motorsports, and he is not in Sunday's race on time alone. He will be working to be the top finishing open entry in his race in order to have a shot on Sunday. He won the fall Daytona Xfinity race in 2023 and boats 14 top-10s from 28 Xfinity starts at this track. Allgaier and this team have what it takes to race this entry into Sunday's show.
Finally, rosters should then prioritize drivers that will look to get the most possible out of Thursday's races. Drivers like Carson Hocevar, Riley Herbst, and Cole Custer fit that bill. All of these drivers are assured of racing Sunday and don't have much to lose. Their goals Thursday night are likely to be learning as much as possible to adjust their cars and approaches for Sunday's race. Cars that already have speed, like Joey Logano, Chris Buescher, and Ryan Preece could also be good options. While these drivers won't want to ruin their already quick cars by getting caught in a wreck, they may have the strength get out front and stay there until the checkered flag.
NASCAR Best Bets for the Duels at Daytona
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook as of 11:00 AM ET Thursday
Duel 1 Winner - Bubba Wallace +1000, Ryan Preece +1600
Duel 2 Winner - Christopher Bell +750, Chris Buescher +1100
Duel 1 Top-Three Finish - AJ Allmendinger +1100
Duel 2 Top-Three Finish - Riley Herbst +1400, Cole Custer +1400
Finding value bets for Thursday's Duels is also a challenge. Since Daytona races can be unpredictable, it can make sense to take some chances on drivers capable of winning but that are getting better odds than the favorites and avoid the lower-priced drivers since anything can happen in these races. Anyone who follows NASCAR knows that Bubba Wallace has the potential to win on superspeedways, and his current odds offer value due to his lower starting position. That starting spot shouldn't hold him back from getting to the front for the finish, though. On the other hand, Ryan Preece demonstrated significant speed in single-car qualifying Wednesday night. He starts on the front row for his Duel and could park himself at the point throughout the 150-mile race. Similar things could be said about Christopher Bell and Chris Buescher in the second race. Both drivers start inside the top 10, have shown the pace and skill to win while offering better odds than many other options.
Another way to look at the betting options is to pick which drivers have the potential to be at the front at the finish. Again, no regular followers of NASCAR would be surprised to see AJ Allmendinger, Riley Herbst, or Cole Custer in the top five or top three at the finish of these races. Allmendinger has three top-three Daytona finishes from eight Xfinity Series starts. Herbst has three fourth-place Daytona Xfinity finishes, and Custer finished fifth in the 2023 fall Xfinity race at the track. Each driver is with a team that can give them a shot at the win or a top finish, which is what wagerers should be looking for Thursday night.
Perhaps more importantly, wagerers should pay close attention to Thursday's races in preparation for what to expect on Sunday. Daytona has a history of producing long-shot victors, which means it often doesn't make much sense to choose the favorites. Starting position also isn't terribly important in this race, which can also make betting on Thursday's races an even bigger challenge. However, the 300 racing miles run Thursday night will give insight into where potential values can be found when Sunday rolls around.
