This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
In case there was any doubt that intermediate tracks have taken over as the best races with the next gen car package, last weekend's race at Kansas cemented that statuswith the closest finish in NASCAR history. We'll follow that up with another traditional intermediate track at Darlington this weekend, which has hosted races consistently since 1952. It's unique egg-shaped circuit that creates unique demands as compared to other tracks, making it best to use a combination of a driver's recent form and historical success at the track as the best indicators of potential success moving forward.
William Byron over 36.5 NASCAR points (fourth place or better with no stage wins)
Byron has uncharacteristically failed to contend for race wins in each of the last two races, crashing at Dover and running only 48.9 percent of the laps in the top 15 in Kansas. This is a good spot for him to return to his usual form as he's posted driver ratings over 100 at Darlington in each of his last four races. He's typically one of the steadier hands among the drivers with elite weekly projections, and his upside at this track makes him a strong option. I want to limit my exposure to the overs on the highest projections each week, but Byron is the choice for this weekend. Denny Hamlin (over 37.5) is also in the running, but I wouldn't take the over on both.
Martin Truex Jr. under 34.5 NASCAR points (sixth place or better with no stage wins)
Despite not having a race win, Truex is having a predictably solid season and is currently second in points to only Kyle Larson. He's done that primarily by not making mistakes, as he's finished inside the top 10 in seven of 12 races and inside the top five on four occasions. That's enough to justify an "over" selection, but his history at Darlington has been boom or bust. He's failed to finish three of the last four races there due to accidents or car issues, and his protection is among the highest of the week.
Chase Elliott over 33.5 NASCAR points (seventh place or better with no stage wins)
After a middling -- arguably worse -- start to the season, Elliott has finished inside the top five in five of the last six races. That includes both short and intermediate tracks. His projection has risen slightly, but he has reasserted himself as a top contender to win every weekend alongside Hendrick teammates Larson and Byron. Until his projection reaches a comparable range to them or his pace slows, I'm willing to bank on Elliott. His history at Darlington adds a bit more confidence, as he's finished inside the top eight in three of the last four races there – including in his down 2023 season.
Ty Gibbs over 29.5 NASCAR points (11th place or better with no stage wins)
Gibbs began the season overrated on PrizePicks and in most NASCAR markets, but we've seen things level out in terms of his price over the last few weeks. As was noted in the introduction, this isn't the typical intermediate race, but he has typically shown solid pace at that style of track this season whether in qualifying, the race or both. Most recently, we saw that at Dover where he tallied his sixth top-ten finish of the year. A word of warning is that Gibbs has not had success at Darlington yet in his career, making this one of my least confident picks of the weekend.
Kyle Busch under 31.5 NASCAR points (10th place or worse with no stage wins)
Busch has finally started to see his luck turn for the better of late with three top 10s in his last four races, but things have gone badly for him this season overall, whether by a mistake of his own or his pit team. At some tracks, it's possible to rally from and still salvage a decent result after such an error. That's not the case at Darlington, and he simply hasn't put enough clean weekends together so far in 2024 for me to feel confident that he'll get through unscathed.
