WISE Power 400 Preview: Big Oval Action

As we put last weekend's thrills and crumpled sheet metal of Daytona behind us, the NASCAR Cup Series travels out west this week. NASCAR's top touring series comes to Auto Club Speedway in Fontana, Calif., for the one and only visit to this huge, two-mile oval for the season. Thanks to the Coronavirus pandemic, it's been two years since NASCAR last competed on the wide corners of Auto Club Speedway. The sanctioning body has scheduled other events the last two seasons to take the place of this vast oval, but now we return to the entertaining action of Fontana after a long absence.

The racing action should be equally entertaining as Daytona, but somewhat different as the drivers will compete on a wide-open oval that is moderately banked, with only 14-degree banking in the corners. The huge track is very forgiving from a handling standpoint as there are many grooves to race in. In fact, it is not unusual to see traffic jams go four or five lanes wide, especially on restarts. If your car isn't working low, you can head up the banking and ride the top around the outside wall. If your car doesn't work there you can head to the middle of the track and find a happy medium. It's this versatility that allows lots of long green-flag runs, few wrecks and an emphasis on fuel mileage as a result. 

With the many racing grooves to choose from, restarts can be a bit chaotic. It's not unusual to see some three- and four-wide racing on this very wide oval. Drivers will make use of that fresh rubber to grab as many positions as possible on the restarts. This will be our first event of the season on a two-mile oval and it will also be our first with the Next-Gen car. It will be interesting to see which teams hit the pavement rolling on this huge, sweeping track. Those that do will be headed for success at Auto Club Speedway and later in the summer at the similar oval in Michigan.

Let's look at the loop stats for the last 22 races at Auto Club Speedway for some background on the drivers. This information should prove to be quite helpful since it is early in the season and we don't have much to base the drivers on large oval performance right now other than their Daytona 500 outings. This speedway has been one marked by historical trends and manufacturer dominance, so the loop stats should come in very handy for the WISE Power 400. 

This will be the first time racing at Fontana with the new Next-Gen car. There will be a lot of unknowns until the drivers take to the two-mile track and begin practice laps later this week. Until that time, our focus will be on drivers who've had a lot of success in the past in this style of racing. Looking back to the last race that was held at Auto Club Speedway in 2020 could bear some clues as to who are the drivers to watch closely this weekend as the teams unload and shakedown their new cars at the speedway.

When the NASCAR Cup Series last competed at Auto Club Speedway two years ago, it would be Hendrick Motorsports driver Alex Bowman and his No. 48 Chevrolet team that would dominate to the victory. The win carried on a recent trend at the track of Chevrolet and Toyota drivers monopolizing victory lane and leaving just the scraps for Ford drivers. Only one Ford driver (Brad Keselowski) has won at the two-mile track in the last 13 events. Bowman led 110 of 200 laps that March afternoon and held off fellow Chevrolet drivers Kurt Busch and Chase Elliott as well as Toyota suitor Kyle Busch to capture the win. That would be the bowtie brand's third victory in the last five races at Auto Club Speedway. The prior two going to Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Larson. Toyota is not to be overlooked in this recent success either. Kyle Busch has won three races at the California oval since 2013 and he's been joined by JGR teammate, Martin Truex Jr., as the 2018 victor at the Fontana track. The big question this weekend will be can the next Gen-Car enable Ford drivers to break up this monopoly?  We'll soon find out. In the outline below, we'll give you our picks for fantasy racing success in the WISE Power 400 at Auto Club Speedway. 

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Kyle Larson – The reigning Cup Series champion is a one-time Fontana winner (2017) and also a one-time runner-up finisher (2018) at this huge facility. Larson now makes his first visit to Auto Club Speedway with his championship-winning team, the No. 5 Chevrolet squad. There's good reason for major optimism. Larson is also a three-time winner at the similar-sized oval in Michigan, and his last two starts at that track netted a pair of strong third-place finishes. This style of racing really seems to play to Larson's strengths and he understands the aerodynamics of these big ovals. Changing lanes and utilizing the high groove for maximum momentum has always been a favorite tactic of Larson, and it really translates well at this big track in Fontana.        

Kyle Busch – The Joe Gibbs Racing star is the active wins leader at Fontana with four victories over his Cup Series career. Three of those four victories have come since the 2013 season, so Busch's success here has been more recent than earlier in his racing career. The last of those victories came in 2019 at Auto Club Speedway and his last outing at the California track fetched a runner-up finish in 2020. With one win and eight Top-5 finishes in his last 10 starts between Fontana and Michigan, Busch is one of the more successful drivers in this style of racing in recent seasons. The new Next-Gen car is a bit of a variable entering the weekend, but Busch showed good speed in that car at Daytona last weekend. The WISE Power 400 could be the race that kicks off Busch's winning ways in the 2022 season.

Joey Logano – We've only had one Ford victor at Auto Club Speedway since the 2010 season, and it was Brad Keselowski's 2015 win that stands out for that camp. Logano will attempt to reverse years of Ford underperformance at this track. The Penske Racing star has demonstrated years of consistency at this track, despite being winless here. Logano has posed six Top-5 finishes in 14 starts for a strong 43-percent Top-5 rate at Fontana. The No. 22 Ford has just seemed to lack the speed to get over the top for that big win. That could change with the new Next-Gen car. Logano looked incredible at Daytona last week, and we know he has the understanding to succeed at Auto Club Speedway. He's a three-time Michigan winner, and that bodes well for Sunday's 400-mile battle in California.

Kevin Harvick – Harvick has quietly been very successful on the two-mile oval in Michigan the last few years. The Stewart Haas Racing star has nabbed four victories there since 2018. Harvick is also a one-time winner at Fontana (2011) and he's grabbed three-career runner-up finishes at Auto Club Speedway. With a Top-10 percentage at this track checking in around 48-percent, Harvick has been quite consistent here just not dominant. He'll look to make that change starting with Sunday's WISE Power 400. The driver of the No. 4 Ford collected a pedestrian ninth-place finish in his last start at Auto Club Speedway. We see that as the floor for this weekend. We expect to see Harvick racing among the leaders and vying for the win in the closing laps of this race.    

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Martin Truex Jr. – The 2018 Auto Club Speedway winner checks in on our solid plays list this week. In that race four years ago, Truex piloted his former Furniture Row Racing Toyota to a dominant performance in the Auto Club 400. He led 125 of the 200 laps from the pole and marched away with his first-ever Fontana victory. Truex's numbers at this two-mile oval have been improving in recent seasons, so that victory was a great reward for a lot of hard work. With well over 200 laps led in his last four visits to Auto Club Speedway, one victory in hand and two Top-5 finishes, the No. 19 Toyota team is clearly a strong performer heading back to California this week for the first time since 2020. 

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski will look to bring his current six-race Fontana Top-10 streak to his new Roush Fenway Keselowski race team and keep it going. The star driver of the No. 6 Ford kicked off that string with a big win at Auto Club Speedway in 2015 and he's visited the Top 10 in every start since. That includes a runner-up finish in 2017 and third-place effort in 2019. Keselowski overcame years of struggles earlier in his career at this two-mile oval, and now when the Cup Series visits there he's among the leaders in every event. The change to the new race team was somewhat of a concern, but Keselowski had so much speed and was so strong at Daytona last weekend our outlook is very optimistic for race two of the season at Auto Club Speedway.   

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has yet to win at Fontana, but he's been pretty consistent to this point in his career. Elliott has three Top 10's in his first five starts at the two-mile oval and carrying a strong 9.4 average finish into Sunday's action. His last outing at Auto Club Speedway in 2020 has been by far his best. Elliott started 13th on the grid that afternoon and peddled the No. 9 Chevrolet to a strong fourth-place finish in the Auto Club 400. He's enjoyed even more success at the similar two-mile Michigan oval in recent seasons. Elliott cracks the Top 10 there at an astounding 91-percent rate and boasts an average finish at Michigan of 7.7. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet would seem primed for success in this Sunday's WISE Power 400.

Denny Hamlin – The Joe Gibbs Racing veteran is coming off a crash and disappointing finish at Daytona. He'll look to rebound this week at Auto Club Speedway. The two-mile oval in California has been a real puzzle for most of Hamlin's career, but he always brings fast cars to this track. More recent seasons have seen the driver of the No. 11 Toyota find a good streak of consistency here. Hamlin rides a three-race Fontana Top-10 streak into Sunday's action and four of his last five starts at the two-mile oval have netted Top 10's. The similar oval in Michigan has yielded some success for Hamlin as well. He's a two-time winner at that track and rides a current four-race Top-10 streak at Michigan to boot. This style of racing should lend a good rebound opportunity to Hamlin and the No. 11 Toyota team this week.

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Fontana & solid upside

Ryan Blaney – Coming off a strong Top-5 finish at Daytona, Blaney will look to keep things rolling with a good performance at Auto Club Speedway. The Penske Racing star has been pretty effective on the two-mile ovals the last few seasons. Blaney has one victory and seven Top-10 finishes in the last 10 two-mile oval events. The win came at Michigan last year, and may signal he's ready to challenge for wins at Fontana. Blaney has three Top 10's in five starts at Auto Club Speedway (60-percent) and last time in action at the track he led a career-best 54 laps in the 2020 Auto Club 400. A Top-10 finish would seem to be in the bag for the No. 12 Ford team.  

Aric Almirola – The Stewart Haas Racing veteran erased a lot of the pain of a poor 2021 campaign with his Top-5 performance at Daytona last weekend. The struggles of last season have been put squarely behind Almirola as he kicks off his farewell season in the NASCAR Cup Series. Fontana has been a good oval for the driver of the No. 10 Ford in recent years. His last three starts at Auto Club Speedway have netted 12th-, ninth- and eighth-place finishes. Since moving to SHR in 2018, he's really come alive at this oval. In addition, Almirola has also been strong at the similar oval in Michigan. He has a pair of Top-10 finishes at the track in his last six starts. This driver and team have started the season well and should carry that momentum into the WISE Power 400.

Alex Bowman – The last time the NASCAR Cup Series visited Fontana, Bowman and the No. 48 Chevrolet team put on an absolute clinic. Crew chief Greg Ives gave him a car that afternoon that was capable of dominating and that's just what Bowman did to the tune 110 laps led. He would win by nearly 9-seconds over Kyle Busch that afternoon two years ago. Bowman has come down to Earth in two-mile oval outings at Michigan since then, and is the major reason for a sleepers list rating for this weekend. While Bowman and the No. 48 team could recreate that magic from two years ago, it's not a lock. The new Next-Gen car is certainly a big variable in that equation. Still, it doesn't hurt to keep an eye on Bowman's practice laps and qualifying effort leading up to this Sunday's 400-mile battle at Auto Club Speedway.      

Kurt Busch – Busch survived the carnage of the Daytona 500 and somehow managed a 19th-place finish despite the obstacles. The veteran 23XI Racing driver will get a very comfortable oval for race two of the season. Busch has been dialed-in on the two-mile ovals in the last several years. He boasts four Top-5 and eight Top-10 finishes in his last 10 starts between Michigan and Auto Club Speedway. At Fontana alone, he has one-career victory and 14 Top-10 finishes (52-percent). Busch's last start at this two-mile track netted an impressive third-place finish back in 2020. With an average finish of 7.7 in his last three starts at Auto Club Speedway, Busch should have a clear advantage this weekend.       

Austin Cindric – The Daytona 500 winner has a lot to prove for his encore to last weekend's big victory. While seeing him win for a second-straight week is not likely, and good performance is not out of the question. This will be the Penske Racing driver's first Cup Series start at a two-mile oval. However, we do have some Xfinity Series data on Cindric in this style of racing. Two of his three-career starts at Fontana have been Top-10 finishes, including his strong third-place finish in 2020. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has some big shoes to fill, but he's kicked things off in a big way. This rookie driver may not look much like a rookie by the time we're well into March.     

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe kicked off his sophomore campaign with a strong third-place finish at Daytona last weekend. Now the driver of the No. 14 Ford will look to keep the good start going with a follow up performance at Auto Club Speedway. This will be Briscoe's first-career Cup Series start at the track, but he did get in one two-mile oval event last season. His 11th-place finish at Michigan last August stands out as one of the better performances of his rookie campaign. Briscoe made two Xfinity Series starts at Fontana between 2019 and 2020. He collected one Top-5 finish in those two starts, so he's not completely unfamiliar with this track. Like for many, it will be an all new game thanks to the Next-Gen car, and that could be all the edge Briscoe needs.

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Bubba Wallace – Coming off a runner-up finish at Daytona, it may be a bit surprising to see Wallace in the slow down list this week. However, superspeedway racing and two-mile oval racing are completely different. Wallace is getting a good mastery of the former, but still working on his two-mile oval game. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota has just one Top-10 finish in his last 10 starts between Fontana and Michigan. The average finish checks in around 22.3 over the span. The last time Wallace raced at Auto Club Speedway in 2020, he struggled to a 27th-place finish that March afternoon and two laps down to the leaders. We're optimistic Wallace will improve in time on these ovals, but for now he's a bench candidate for Sunday's WISE Power 400. 

Tyler Reddick – The young Richard Childress Racing driver has been quite a fantasy gold mine the last couple seasons. Reddick has raced very well and is usually quite useful most weekends. However, he does have his weaknesses. Two-mile oval racing would fall into that category for the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet. Reddick has just one Top-15 finish and two finishes outside the Top 20 in his four starts between Fontana and Michigan. The 20.5 average finish across that span doesn't measure up to Reddick's potential. Coming off a season where the driver of the No. 8 Chevrolet logged 16 Top-10 finishes, a finish outside the Top 20 would fall short of expectations. That could likely be the outcome this Sunday for Reddick.     

Christopher Bell – Of the Joe Gibbs Racing drivers, Bell is the only one to fade this weekend. His four-career starts on the two-mile ovals have not been very noteworthy to this point. With just two Top-15 finishes, his average finish checks in at a subpar 20.3 between Fontana and Michigan. Bell still has a lot to learn about racing on these high-speed big ovals. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota ran into trouble at Daytona last weekend, and he'll be looking to hit the reset button this week. Auto Club Speedway is not likely what the doctor ordered to get Bell back in the right side of the ledger. Bell is a bench candidate this week, but look for him to be a better pick at tracks like Las Vegas and Phoenix in the coming weeks.

Cole Custer – Two-mile oval racing has been a real weakness for Custer since his move the NASCAR Cup Series. His four starts between Fontana and Michigan have netted only one Top-20 finish and three finishes outside the Top 20. The driver of the No. 41 Ford will be looking to erase those struggles, but realizes he's starting from scratch with a brand new car. Any lessons learned in the old generation car are likely moot at this point. Custer was pretty successful on these two-mile ovals in his Xfinity Series career, so it doesn't make much sense why he's struggling now. Regardless, he's a driver to observe this weekend and not deploy in fantasy racing leagues at this point.