2022 World Cup Preview: Group C Betting Picks | Can Poland Play Spoiler?

2022 World Cup Preview: Group C Betting Picks | Can Poland Play Spoiler?

This article is part of our World Cup series.

Our 2022 World Cup betting previews

Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H

Summer Preview Show

Argentina enter the 2022 World Cup as the heavy favorite to win Group C, which isn't surprising as Lionel Messi is still around, along with a glut of talent in Paulo Dybala, Angel Di Maria and Lautaro Martinez. Despite that talent, the team followed up a second-place finish in 2014 by getting knocked out in the Round of 16 at the 2018 World Cup. Their recent win over Italy in Finalissima has fans thinking this could be the year and while it could be, this isn't an easy group.

The other spot to advance from the group is a toss-up between Mexico and Poland, who both sit at -120 to advance to the knockout rounds. While Messi might have a more recognizable name around the globe, Poland's Robert Lewandowski is certainly a world-class striker, having recorded 75 goals in 130 caps for Poland, in addition to leading Bundesliga in goals with Bayern Munich for five consecutive seasons. For their part, Mexico may not have the elite star power but has won the Gold Cup four of the last seven tournaments while finishing second in CONCACAF World Cup Qualifying. 

Argentina are favored to win Group C at -195 with Poland and Mexico both sitting at +450, longshot Saudi Arabia round out the group at +3800. 

GROUP A WINNER

There's not a ton of return to take Argentina at -195 to win the group, though they are the best team in the group from top to bottom by a wide margin. If you don't like the return, a better option may be targeting specific matchups, like Argentina -2.5 against Saudi Arabia (+155) in their opening contest. 

Poland To Advance from Group C -120

The other team to come out of Group C alongside Argentina could come down to the early matchup between Mexico and Poland, though a draw in that contest could create some intrigue the rest of the way. 

Poland boast one of the top strikers in the world in Lewandowski and Piotr Zielinski is the team's set-piece specialist but the their struggles in major tournaments are prevalent. No Polish team has advanced out of the group stage since 1986, ironically enough when the World Cup was played in Mexico. 

If you want to really get some value, it's not outrageous to suggest Poland as the Group Winner at +450. It would almost certainly require either an upset or draw versus Argentina, as well as potentially advancing on goal differential, but at those odds, it's certainly worth considering. 

BEST MATCHUP TO BET

Nov. 22, Mexico v. Poland, Stadium 974, Doha

Without overstating it, this will likely be the most influential matchup of Group C. A winner will almost certainly secure advancement out of the group and could be in a position to upset Argentina for first place. As of June at DraftKings, Poland were slightly favored at +165 to win with Mexico at +175 and a draw at +205. 

You could take less risk instead of going with a straight-up winner, as Poland are a decent -120 for the Draw No Bet, which would get you money back on a draw. However, in my opinion, the risk is worth it to take a side. Closer to the start of the tournament, you should be able to get Robert Lewandowski to score props, which should be around even odds.

Poland to Win +165

'Yes' on Both Teams to Score -115

It's the first game for each team in group stages, so the offenses could be limited, but the strong talent on both sides could lead to some goals. Lewandowski is a threat to score anytime on the pitch and it almost seems inevitable that Poland will allow one given their back line play in recent tournaments, so if you can get close to even odds on both teams to score, take it.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
AJ Scholz
Co-Host of PuckCast with Statsman and AJ and unabashed Penguins fan.
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