This article is part of our World Cup series.
The first time I bet on a World Cup was 2010. I can't remember how much I lost, but it probably wasn't a lot heading into my final year as a college student. While I liked Spain, who ended up winning the tournament, I doubt I capitalized on their string of 1-0 wins in every knockout round.
Fortunately, I'm smarter than I was 12 years ago. Maybe not academically, but I definitely know more about how to turn a positive when betting soccer than when I randomly bet overs and parlayed teams I thought were better to win.
Following the legalization of sports betting in the United States, this is the first World Cup in which almost half the country can partake (legally). With that comes a ton of betting possibilities from futures to exact game scores and who will score the first and last goal of a match. It's not quite the Super Bowl, but there are tons of betting options for every match, something new if you've never bet on a soccer game before.
While I don't have all the answers, I have a few ideas to help you come away in the green by the end of the World Cup. Also, this wouldn't be a true betting article if I didn't promote my other content. My weekly Premier League article is 36-23-1 and in our betting podcast Kits & Wagers, I'm 32-13, both of which can be found here.
Our 2022 World Cup betting previews
Group A | Group B | Group C | Group D | Group E | Group F | Group G | Group H
1. Don't create extravagant parlays
This rule is kind of for myself because it'll be too easy to string together bets when there are three or four matches in a day. The first Monday of the tournament features a couple decent-sized favorites. A lot of people will see England at -340 and Netherlands at -160 to win, and put them together for better than even odds. Don't do that. Find a way to bet England or Netherlands by themselves. Given the likely amount of those exact moneyline parlays, it's inevitable one of those teams won't win.
2. Don't bet what everyone else is betting
Don't be the public. It's that simple. No matter the sport, people will bet overs because that's what they want to watch, which in turn leads to better odds for the under. There will also be a lot of places talking up the best teams in the world. For example, it wouldn't be surprising to see everyone betting on teams like Brazil and Argentina, creating -1.5 or even -2.5 bets. Those are public bets. Just because a team is better than their opponent doesn't mean they'll easily win by five goals. Brazil were favored to win the 2018 World Cup and not only did they lose in the quarter-finals, but they didn't score more than two goals in a match.
3. You can still bet overs
World Cup matches are lower scoring in general, but that doesn't mean you can't bet overs. In the 2020 Euros, over 2.5 goals hit 27 times and under 2.5 hit 24 times. In the last World Cup, over 2.5 goals hit 31 times compared to 33 for the under.
That said, in the past eight World Cups, matches are averaging 2.49 goals scored. It's never been above 2.71 goals for one World Cup and the average has been 2.3 or below in three of those eight. Heat was a concern for the 2018 World Cup in Brazil and those matches averaged 2.6 per match. For comparison, since 1992, the Premier League averages 2.65 goals per match, but that number is 2.87 in the current season. In Germany's Bundesliga, the average is usually around three per match.
4. Find the best number
Fortunately, you can use the RotoWire Sports Betting page to compare numbers at four different sportsbooks. I assume numbers at American sportsbooks will differ a bit than ones overseas. In general, there will probably be more public money gambled on the World Cup than any other soccer event, so line movements should be expected leading up to each match.
5. Sportsbooks will trick you
This isn't anything new. Sports gambling was legalized to make money. You'll find bets like Double Chance, Win or Draw, and +.5 on the spread, which all mean the same thing. The same goes for PK and Draw No Bet. Yet, some sites will have different odds for those bets. If there's any chance your bet could be worded differently, make sure you aren't getting a bad number on something that's listed under the 'Popular' section.
6. Sometimes the number will be off
If you think you have a good read on a team and they are surprisingly big underdogs, it doesn't mean the sportsbook is tricking you, at least not always. The World Cup happens once every four years and these teams have less training together than clubs. That means weird things can happen and upsets are inevitable. Even if a team like Senegal probably aren't going to win the whole thing, that doesn't mean they can't get an upset or two.
7. Line movement doesn't always matter
The general thought with line movement is that some sharp betting group found an edge in a number and attacked it, moving a line a certain way. However, while sharps are smarter than the public, they aren't always correct and with this being the World Cup in Qatar, historical numbers don't mean as much. If you're on a side and see that the odds aren't moving in your favor, don't worry about it, assuming you feel confident about your selection.
For example, big favorites will almost always be bet up leading to a match. No one wants to back Saudi Arabia against Argentina, so all the money will go to the favorite. Similarly, few people will bet teams like Australia, Cameroon or Iran through group stages as large underdogs.
8. If you think there will be goals, bet exact goals
Of the 31 overs that hit last World Cup, 12 of them involved at least four goals, meaning 19 of them had exactly three goals. It's a small sample, but a lot of times, especially in early rounds, even if a team is losing, they don't want things to get more out of hand. There's a chance progression to the knockout stages is decided by goal differential. Depending on the odds, instead of taking the over, it's sometimes better to bet exactly three goals or even a goal band of 3-4 goals in a match.
9. Don't wait to bet on USA at American sportsbooks
There will likely be no value in betting the United States to win in any of their games because the numbers will be inflated. This goes for wherever you're located. I'm not saying they won't win, but there's a chance 90 percent of the bets at American sportsbooks are on the USA in their opener against Wales. In September after their two ugly friendlies, you could get them at +160 to win. Two weeks ahead of their match, FanDuel listed USA at +135 to beat Wales. One week before the match, they were +160 again. If you see a number you like, take it before it's gone.
10. Forget about yesterday
This one is important and it applies to betting in general. Don't let the prior day's bets influence what you do going forward. If you win every bet one day, don't increase the size of your bets the next. That's a good way to see prior winnings disappear. In the same mold, if you lose all your bets, don't double down and try to win back all of your losses at once. These are simple things to live by that'll guarantee your bankroll won't be gone after the first round of group-stage matches.
11. Have fun
Wild things happen in the World Cup and the likelihood of upsets happening may be enhanced even more by this one being in the middle of league seasons. For normal World Cups, players and teams have a month of training leading up to the tournament. For this one, a lot of players will have league matches the weekend before things kick off in Qatar. So if your parlay loses on the first Monday, well, then you'll just have to reread this article.
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This year for the World Cup, sports bettors in Maryland will be able to wager. You can take advantage of pre-live Maryland betting promos available now to get hundreds of dollars worth of free bets. Once live, our favorite promotion is the BetMGM Maryland bonus code.
