This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
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UCL Best Bets for Manchester City vs. Real Madrid
This is about as difficult as it gets in terms of projecting how a match will go. Manchester City and Real Madrid are considered two of the best teams in the world, if not the two best. The first leg was a wild thriller that featured six goals despite the expected goals totaling just 1.45. That seems unlikely to happen again, but when you put elite players on a pitch with everything to play for, sometimes that means incredible goals that not many others would score.
Including last week's 3-3 draw, these teams have played five times in the past three seasons. Real Madrid surprised a lot of people when they won 3-1 at home in the second leg of the 2021/22 semi-finals.
Man City got revenge in last season's semi-final second leg when they won 4-0 at home after the first match finished 1-1. Many are looking to that match as a reason City will win and that's not a terrible idea. Manchester City haven't lost at home in a competitive match since November 2022 against Brentford.
I think you can play this like last week's xG numbers suggest and aim for a low-scoring, back-and-forth game where brilliance is needed. In that case, under 2.5 at +145 is reasonable, something I looked at last week. However, given prior matchups, I can't get there.
I don't hate going heavy Manchester City at -1.5 at +155 odds in case last season's result repeats. Real Madrid have cruised through La Liga, but the absence of Aurelien Tchouameni is worrisome, as is a mostly healthy City side at the Etihad.
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Betting on Corners
Similar to last week's match, City will control possession, but it's about what that leads to. There's little value in taking anything involving City corners, so I think Real Madrid over 3.5 corners at -110 is viable. Unlike most teams, they have the midfield to contend with City while sending Vinicius Junior on runs down the wing to hopefully result in corners.
There's also the possibility of City getting a lead and Madrid being forced to play more open, which should help their corners. If you don't care about your money, Real Madrid race to 5 corners is +450.
Betting on Shots
Unfortunately, the odds are juiced for shots and I don't want to bet them after they combined for 26 shots in the first leg. Instead, I think you can put together a relatively safe single-game parlay with a focus on decent odds for Real Madrid players.
Again, I don't think they'll be blanked, so betting on guys like Vinicius and Federico Valverde to have a shot or two makes sense. The simplest parlay would be Vinicius to have two or more shots and Valverde to have at least one for -105 odds. If you don't want to worry about anything else happening, call it a day and double your money.
Single-Game Parlays
I built a SGP based off everything I mentioned while adding some low-projection shot bets for a couple Manchester City players. On the City side, I have moneyline, over 1.5 goals, Jack Grealish one-plus shot and Kevin De Bruyne at least two shots. For Real Madrid, I have over 2.5 corners, Valverde one-plus shot and Vinicius two-plus shots.
That equals +600 odds.
Manchester City vs. Real Madrid Betting Picks
- Manchester City -1.5 +155
- Real Madrid over 3.5 corners -110
- SGP: Valverde 1+ shot and Vinicius 2+ shots = -105
- SGP: Man City ML + Man City O1.5 goals + Grealish 1+ shot + KDB 2+ shots + Real Madrid O2.5 corners + Valverde 1+ shot + Vinicius 2+ shots = +600
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