This article is part of our Game Previews series.
Barcelona and Atalanta line up Wednesday at Lluis Companys Olympic Stadium in Barcelona for their first ever encounter.
The clash is a matchup of third-placed Spanish and Italian clubs who each find themselves in the top-eight of the Champions League table entering the final matchday of the League Phase. Barcelona have earned their automatic berth in the Round-of-16 by virtue of securing a top-eight finish. A win by Atalanta will see the Italian outfit also achieve a berth in the Round-of-16.
Champions League Predicted & Confirmed Lineups
ODDS
Moneyline
DraftKings: BAR -135, Draw +320, ATA +320 (PROMO CODE)
FanDuel: BAR -145, Draw +330, ATA +340 (PROMO CODE)
Bet365: BAR -138, Draw +333, ATA +310 (BONUS CODE)
BetMGM: BAR -135, Draw +320, ATA +300 (BONUS CODE)
RECENT FORM
Barcelona (WWDWW) have reeled off six successive Champions League victories after falling to Monaco in the opening match of the competition. Overall, the Catalans are unbeaten (six wins, one draw) over their last seven fixtures in all competitions.
Atalanta (WWLDD) have won three of their last four Champions League fixtures by an aggregate score of 15-4. However, they've emerged victorious just once in their last five league fixtures (one win, three draws, one loss).
FORMATIONS
Barcelona have commonly employed a 4-2-3-1 under Hansi Flick, who allows for a dynamism within the Barca shape that contributes to a 4-4-2 look when in possession. Raphinha and Robert Lewandowski are typically paired in attack, with the former sometimes playing alongside Lewandowski and at other times, more recently, playing off the left wing of the attacking unit. The system has been predicated upon the ability of a midfield duo consisting some combination of Frenkie de Jong, Gavi, Marc Casado and Pedri to operate from box-to-box in an effort to create chances going forward without shirking their defensive responsibilities.
Atalanta manager Gian Piero Gasperini's 3-4-1-2 system has its' roots in the principles of building up play in the wide areas of the pitch and then quickly bringing the ball centrally for his two strikers to attack. Gasperini asks his team to build from the back with patience, using the width of their formation to pass through their opponent's press and create numerical advantages on the flanks where their wingbacks can dictate the angle of attack. When forced deep into their own half, Atalanta will recede into a 5-3-2 shape as they aim to regain possession.
LINEUP & INJURY NEWS
Barcelona
Flick has opted for veteran Wojciech Szczesny in favor of Inaki Pena over three of Barcelona's last five fixtures across all competitions, with Szczesny conceding seven goals in his three starts and Pena allowing just two goals in his two starting appearances. Given their comparative form, I expect Pena to earn the starting nod Wednesday, but another Szczesny appearance is not out of the question.
Jules Kounde and Alex Balde are some of the first names on the team sheet as they lineup at right-back and left-back, respectively. Pau Cubarsi has started in central defense in each of the last five Barcelona fixtures and is likely to be paired with either Eric Garcia or Ronald Araujo, who just signed a new contract with the club, as Inigo Martinez (hamstring) remains weeks away from a return.
After rotating the squad in Barcelona's last fixture, a 7-1 victory over Valencia, I expect Flick to return to the midfield that catalyzed Barca's 75% possession rate versus Benfica in their most recent 5-4 Champions League victory. In that fixture, Gavi and Pedri were able to push forward in possession, combining for seven chances created as Marc Casado played a deeper role and led the team with five tackles (four won). If Flick opts to deploy an alternative combination, Ferran Torres, who replaced Gavi in the Benfica match, could be an option in the No. 10 role with Frenkie de Jong also a consideration to serve in the midfield double-pivot.
Flick has a potent first-choice three in attack comprised of Raphinha playing on the left wing, Lamine Yamal on the right wing and Lewandowski spearheading the Barca attack. The triumvirate have combined for 18 goals and four assists through seven Champions League fixtures. However, with Barcelona already having sealed their fate into the Round of 16, it would be unsurprising if Flick opted to rest his best players and distribute minutes to Dani Olmo, Fermin or Torres who have each served in depth roles this season.
Atalanta
Atalanta enter the fixture at near full strength as they look to cement their place inside the top-eight.
Expect Gasperini to welcome back his first-choice defender Isak Hien (suspension) after he was forced to miss out on a 2-1 victory over Como. With Sead Kolasinac also a priority across the Atalanta back-three, Hines will likely displace either Berat Djimsiti or Giorgio Scalvini from the starting XI, each of whom have started in four of their side's last five fixtures.
Marten de Roon (head) is a fixture in Atalanta central midfield but is questionable for the bout as he is in concussion protocols. If de Roon is ruled out for the fixture, expect his typical midfield partner Ederson to be paired with Mario Pasalic who has featured in three of Atalanta's last five fixtures. Should Gasperini wish to add mettle to his attacking threat, Lazar Samardzic could be asked to drop from the playmaker role behind the strikers and serve in a deeper position.
Davide Zappacosta can operate on either flank in the wingback role. His counterpart at the opposite wing-back position is most often is either Matteo Ruggeri or Raoul Bellanova. When Ruggeri is selected, Zappacosta will slide to the right side of the formation. The trio have added one goal and two assists to the attack throughout the Champions League campaign.
The Atalanta attacking unit typically consists of two of Ademola Lookman, Charles De Ketelaere or Mateo Retegui in the striker positions. However, with the aforementioned Samardzic an option to drop a line into the midfield, Gasperini may opt to deploy his three top goal threats in the critical fixture. If the manager opts to retain one of the three on the bench for an impact substitution, look for Samardzic to fill his typical role behind the striking partnership.
PLAYERS TO WATCH
Robert Lewandowski will be the barometer by which the Barcelona performance is judged. Simply put, when the world class striker is consistently finding the back of the net, Barca is near unbeatable. Look for the Champions League's top scorer to be licking his chops to take advantage of a defensive line of three and continue the run of form that has seen him produce seven goals over his last five appearances (five starts) in the tournament.
Ademola Lookman has scored in each of his last three Champions League appearances and is tied for the team-high in the competition with four total goals. After a 78 minute shift in Atalanta's most recent fixture versus Como, I expect a semi-rested Lookman to continue his strong European form that has brought Atalanta to the precipice of automatic qualification for the Round of 16.
BETTING PICKS & PREDICTION
Man of the Match: Mateo Retegui
If Atalanta are to defy the odds and earn a victory to catapult their Champions League dreams forward, an in-form Mateo Retegui will be the man to whom they'll look for goals. Over his last four appearances (three starts), the striker has peppered the net with nine shots (five on target) while creating five chances and scoring five goals. Though he rarely plays the full 90 minutes, I back Retegui to latch onto one of the many crosses that will come from the wide areas of the Atalanta attack and trouble the Barcelona keeper.
Result: Barcelona 2-2 Atalanta
UPCOMING CHAMPIONS LEAGUE FIXTURES
Barcelona: Feb. 2 vs. Deportivo Alaves
Atalanta: Feb. 1 vs. Torino
