This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
This is one of the first gameweeks of the season when after initially looking at the slate, I didn't have a lot of convictions. Outside of Liverpool and Manchester City being major favorites, all of the games are projected to be fairly close. A lot of the matchups are either two teams I want to bet on or two teams I don't want to bet on. So does that mean we should pass on the week? Nah.
Record: 21-19. Up $438 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen take on three matches, including Spurs against Chelsea.
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EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Fulham
Fulham Race to 5 Corners against Man United +115
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Speaking of teams I don't want to bet on. I don't have faith in either of these teams, but since they play each other, I have to side with the one at home. Fulham have been okay at home (two wins, two losses), but more importantly, they actually showed life in the second half against Brighton and followed up with a nice midweek Cup win at Ipswich Town. As for Manchester United, I argued on last week's Kits & Wagers that they haven't really shown real life all season. Unlike Fulham, their struggles continued midweek against Newcastle.
I mistakenly bet Manchester United corners in their trip to Sheffield United and fortunately I've learned from that mistake. I expect Fulham to open attacking against a lost Man United side and under Marco Silva, there seems to be a bit more motivation than under Erik ten Hag for the Red Devils.
Given the form of each team, the odds are changing on this bet, so there's a chance +115 could be closer to -110 come match start. I also like Fulham -.25 corners in the first half at +100.
EPL Best Bets for Liverpool at Luton Town
SGP: Liverpool to beat Luton Town and Mohamed Salah to score -105
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This is the best Liverpool have been in a couple years and I don't think they'll drop points against an injury-hampered Luton Town, even at Kenilworth Road. I don't think taking Liverpool over 2.5 goals at -130 is worth it, especially given that Luton Town have yet to allow more than two goals in four home matches.
On the other side, Liverpool seem to allow at least one bad goal in every match away from home this season. While I initially had Liverpool and both teams to score at +140, I'm not sure I want to bet on Luton to score after they couldn't convert when up a man for 45 minutes against Tottenham a couple weeks ago.
Instead, I'll bank on Salah to find the back of the net for the ninth time in league play. Liverpool will get opportunities and with numerous questions on the back line, I'm not sure how Luton keep out Salah.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Nottingham Forest
Over 4.5 corners in the first half between Forest and Villa -115
Are Nottingham Forest better than they were last season? I'm not sure. I've liked some of their signings and Murillo has played well on the back line, but things still aren't clicking, which is the opposite of how Aston Villa are playing, though away from home, three points are far from guaranteed. Only two weeks ago, Villa couldn't figure out Wolves and drew 1-1.
Because of that, I'm staying away from Aston Villa moneyline and focusing on corners. I don't think this will be a complete demolition and because Villa aren't a possession-dominant side, both teams should be in play to accrue corners, which leads me to over 4.5 in the first half.
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EPL Parlay for Wolverhampton at Sheffield United and West Ham United at Brentford
Parlay: Under 3.5 goals between Sheffield United and Wolves, and Under 3.5 goals between Brentford and West Ham = -110
Instead of taking moneylines on a bunch of matches projected to be close, I'm turning to over/unders. This is what I call a safe parlay, turning a 2.5 number I already like into 3.5.
Sheffield United are at home and know this is a great spot to secure at least a point. Most of their matches have resulted in goals, but most of those have come from opponents. It's also unlikely top striker Oliver McBurnie will be available due to injury. This is a weird spot for Wolves, as an away favorite without their best player in Pedro Neto. Will goals be scored? Probably. I'm not sure they'll combine for more than three, though.
For the other match, it's pretty simple. In their last five meetings in all competitions (since Brentford returned to the Premier League), these teams have combined for more than two goals once and that was a 2-1 result. This isn't a great matchup for West Ham's counter-attacking style, as Brentford aren't a team to fully lose themselves in the attack.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 11
- Fulham Race to 5 Corners against Man United +115
- SGP: Liverpool to beat Luton Town and Mohamed Salah to score -105
- Over 4.5 corners in the first half between Forest and Villa -115
- Parlay: Under 3.5 goals between Sheffield United and Wolves, and Under 3.5 goals between Brentford and West Ham = -110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
