This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't forget to check out our weekly soccer betting show Kits & Wagers, which covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the lads bet on Chelsea versus Tottenham along with a couple other matchups.
The only thing I missed on in Gameweek 1 was trusting the Leicester City back line, as they couldn't hold a two-goal lead, at home against Brentford. It was a dumb result, something that happens a lot in this sport and something you have to get used to if you're going to bet on it.
Because of the World Cup, there is only one international break before the winter break. There is a constant run of matches until the end of September, which means if you lose on something like Leicester City again, you'll have a few days (or few hours) to get your money back. That's the fun part of betting.
Record: 3-1. Up $245 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Leeds United at Southampton
Southampton Race to 7 corners +190
Southampton corner bets can be found at the DraftKings Sportsbook. If you need to sign up, click through our DraftKings Promo page for a deposit bonus.
I didn't have a ton of success with corner bets last season, but I didn't want to bet -140 on over 2.5 goals, so I found something else. Southampton had 15 corners in two matchups last season and I think it's worth a shot at +190 odds for them (James Ward-Prowse) to reach seven corners first. They were fourth in the league in terms of corners taken last season and as long as they don't score in the first 20 minutes and sit back, I think they can reach seven corners. While Leeds won their opener, I'm still not overly positive on their back line, which features Pascal Struijk at left-back.
The other part is that we should get a better read on Southampton newcomers like Joe Aribo and Romeo Lavia in this match after they both went full 90s in the opener at Tottenham. I think both add a little something new to Southampton and a match against Leeds should highlight that a bit more than last week's 4-1 loss.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle at Brighton
'No' on both Newcastle and Brighton to score -105
Both teams not to score at -105 is available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up yet, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
This may be the hardest match to bet this weekend, but I like a challenge. Both teams kind of want to do the same thing, which is control possession and limit opportunities for the opponent. That's a main reason under 2.5 goals is -145, so I'm going a different route with 'No' on both teams to score at -105. While both are solid in the back, they are also inconsistent offensively and either side could win this match to nil if it doesn't finish in a scoreless draw.
I probably took the same bet last season except it lost in both meetings. I think the process is correct and that's what I'll lean on, or at least that's what I'm telling myself. Neither team is much different than a season ago and I'm comfortable taking at least one team not to score in this matchup.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Aston Villa and Leicester City at Arsenal
Parlay: Aston Villa Double Chance (-450) and Arsenal ML (-215) at -127 odds
I don't normally do this, but since I hit my first parlay this season (Newcastle ML & Tottenham ML), I'll continue with one in my articles until it doesn't hit. Instead of betting Aston Villa to win at -120 because I don't trust them, I'll take them at -450 on a simple double chance since I don't think they'll lose in their home opener to Everton. Villa are maybe the hardest team to project but losing this match would be maybe more surprising than last week's loss at Bournemouth.
The other part is Arsenal, who are against the team that screwed me last week. The Gunners had no problem in the opener and they were one of the best teams at home last season, winning 13 of 19 matches. I think they find a way against this nervy Leicester City back line and I wouldn't hate a win-to-nil bet after Arsenal won both meetings last season 2-0.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Brentford
Brentford Double Chance versus Manchester United -120
I specifically remember taking this bet last season and it blew up in my face when Manchester United won 3-1. However, the score is not all that matters, as Brentford dominated the first half and even finished with more expected goals at 2.78. It's probably not a good idea to go back to the well in this spot, but there's value in the Bees, who not only won last season's home opener against Arsenal but also allowed just 21 goals at home all season (three to Man United). I think they can again take it to a sketchy Man United squad and the main hope is that they can grab an early lead, similar to what Brighton did to the Red Devils last weekend.
EPL Betting Picks Saturday, Aug. 13
- Southampton Race to 7 corners +190
- 'No' on both Newcastle and Brighton to score -105
- Parlay: Aston Villa Double Chance (-450) and Arsenal ML (-215) at -127 odds
- Brentford Double Chance versus Manchester United -120
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet.
