This article is part of our Football Picks series.
Liverpool look to bounce back from their Carabao Cup defeat when they welcome their heated rivals Everton to Anfield.
In that Cup final, Liverpool were pretty badly beat by Newcastle. Even before that, Liverpool were dominated by PSG over two legs in the Champions League. Despite the hot start, the only trophy they can win this season is the Premier League title. They were poor in the previous meeting against Everton, so this one is going to be difficult.
Everton have been completely revitalized under David Moyes and are out of any threat of relegation. Since Moyes took over, Everton have picked up 17 points in 10 matches, a number far better than anything done under Sean Dyche. They scored in the dying minutes to draw Liverpool in the previous meeting, which should give them confidence heading into this fixture.
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Premier League Best Bets for Liverpool vs. Everton
Betting on Team Total Goals
Everton's mid-block completely stifled Liverpool in the previous meeting.
Liverpool may have scored twice, but they only created 0.85 expected goals with an expected threat of 0.87 and had only four deep entries.
In general, Liverpool are a tad limited against really physical teams like Everton. The Carabao Cup final was a perfect example of Arne Slot's limitations. Whenever they play a team that presses high, he almost always has his players opt for the low-risk approach of sending long balls up to their forwards.
The problem with doing that is you need to win duels and one-on-one matchups for it to be successful, otherwise, you keep losing the ball. Everton are a physical team that is outstanding at winning those duels and second balls, so I think it's going to be difficult for Liverpool to create any type of high quality chances in this match.
I like the value on Liverpool's team total under 1.5 goals at +150.
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Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Everton are more than likely going to have to play direct in this match, which isn't necessarily a bad thing.
They scored both their goals off of set pieces in the previous meeting with one of those goals coming from Beto. He's a big physical presence who is perfect for when Everton decide to play direct because he's a transition striker who is really good at making runs off the back line.
He's also a big presence in the box on those set pieces and he can win aerial duels. Liverpool are 13th in xG per set-piece allowed, so don't be surprised to see Everton put a huge emphasis on them again in this match.
With Dominic Calvert-Lewin still injured, Beto is going to be leading the line for Everton and I like the value on him to score in this match at +450.
Betting on Player Shots
Mohamed Salah is the main shot getter for Liverpool, but Newcastle completely shut him down in the Carabao Cup final.
If Liverpool can't win their one-on-one duels and second balls, it'll make it very difficult for them to not only control the match, but to pin Everton into their final third and allow Salah to get off those shots.
He scored in the previous meeting back in February, but that was the only shot he took for the entire match. In fact, Liverpool only had six shots total, so I like his prop of under 3.5 shots at -175.
Liverpool vs. Everton Betting Picks
- Liverpool Team Total Under 1.5 goals (+150)
- Beto Anytime Goalscorer (+450)
- Mo Salah Under 3.5 shots (-175)
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