This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The busy schedule is putting a strain on defenses and the success of my bets. There have been just five clean sheets the last two gameweeks in the Premier League and random matches seem to pop off every weekend. I'm not sure what that means for the month ahead, but there isn't time for the teams to change strategies. Matches are coming every few days and there's little time to react, especially for Sheffield United.
Record: 26-30-1. Down $104 on $100 bets.
Looking for more more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris Owen bet on three other matches, including Aston Villa home against Manchester City.
EPL Best Bets for Burnley at Wolverhampton
Wolves to beat Burnley -115
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I think you can go a few different ways in this match, as long as you think Wolves have the advantage and that there will be goals. Wolverhampton have taken points in each of their last four home matches with Tottenham being the only one of those opponents not competing in Europe. Burnley aren't either and while coming off a big win, I'm not sure they make it two in a row.
Both teams to score is -125, Wolves over 1.5 goals is -110 and Wolves to win with over 2.5 goals is +205.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Brighton & Hove Albion
SGP: Brighton Double Chance against Brentford + Both teams to score -105
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Brighton have had a couple lower scoring matches in their last two at home and that's what has me worried about taking any kind of over. If they can't score twice against Fulham or Sheffield United, I can't bet that against Brentford.
That said, Brentford could have even more absences than usual with Christian Norgaard suspended and Mathias Jensen still dealing with an injury. At some point, rotation is going to hurt them and that could be in this spot, as Brighton rotated Pascal Gross and Kaoru Mitoma in their last game.
I think both teams can score and I think the home side will get at least a point. Easy bet.
EPL Best Bets for Chelsea at Manchester United
Under 10.5 corners between Man United and Chelsea -110
I thought this would've been an over/under of 9.5 corners, but it's at 10.5, making it one of my favorite bets. Like most teams, Manchester United have been better at home, somewhere they haven't played since Nov. 11. Instead of falling prey to five-plus goals being scored due to Chelsea's variety in performances, I'm going to corners.
While some of the numbers don't say it, United have played better since the beginning of November. I thought they were terrible the first few months, but since, there have been sparks of how Erik ten Hag wants to play. That means grind-it-out games in which they hope to bang in a goal and hang on for a 1-0 win, something they relied on last season.
Again, I don't know how this will play out with the erratic Chelsea on the other side, but the focus of defense at home is enough for me to take the under on corners instead of goals.
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EPL Picks for Newcastle United at Everton
Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Newcastle -115
I hit Newcastle's 1-0 win against Manchester United spot on (yes, I have receipts) and I think this one could be similar. Due to a limited lineup, Newcastle have played a bit more defensive in away matches and I think they'll aim for another 1-0 win in this spot.
Trusting Everton's back line is always iffy, as I lost an under bet on them against Manchester United, but this feels like a perfect spot for them to struggle to score, yet again.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 15
- Wolves to beat Burnley -115
- SGP: Brighton Double Chance against Brentford + Both teams to score -105
- Under 10.5 corners between Man United and Chelsea -110
- Under 2.5 goals between Everton and Newcastle -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2022: 79-58-2. Up $2,281 on $100 bets.
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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