Women's World Cup: France v. USA Quarter-Final Preview

Friday's quarter-final matchup between France and the United States is a bit disappointing in that it's not being played to determine the World Cup winner. Ranked fourth and first, respectively, in the FIFA World Rankings, the host nation comes in as a +210 underdog on FanDuel Sportsbook, with the United States +130 to win. A relatively tight affair is expected, with the odds sitting at -134 for under 2.5 goals versus +110 for the over, as well as -122 for both teams to score versus -110 for just one. Similar to other knockout matches, we must have winner, either after extra time or penalties, and the Americans are -142 to advance to the semi-final while France is +102.

France beat the U.S. 3-1 in an international friendly in January thanks to a brace from Kadidiatou Diani and a solo effort from Marie-Antoinette Katoto, while Mallory Pugh ended the clean sheet with a 91st-minute goal. Prior to that, the two sides had a 1-1 draw in the 2018 SheBelieves Cup, France won 3-0 in the 2017 version, and the United States' last win over France came during the 2016 Summer Olympics thanks to a Carli Lloyd goal assisted by Tobin Heath (if you told me that was the last time Heath was on the scoresheet I might believe you after her 2019 World Cup returns). Needless to say, this is a clash of titans that will be one of the most-watched soccer matches this year.

DraftKings and FanDuel have clearly recognized the importance of the match, offering $50,000 and $30,000 GPPs, respectively. If you're someone who is concerned with payout structures, the chart on the left breaks it down for each site. Obviously they're pretty top-heavy, but the opportunity to win $10,000 or $5,000 will surely entice those who may not normally play soccer to at least throw a lineup in to see what happens. The benefit of these showdown/single game slates is that it's relatively easy to make a team: you only need five players on FanDuel, none of whom are a goalkeeper, and DraftKings only requires six but you can play both goalkeepers if you want. Making a team is easy but making a GPP-winning team is hard, especially in a match that should be very close and we have pricing that doesn't allow you to load up on the elite players. As a result, there will be significant time put into which lower-priced players are worth targeting, which higher-priced ones are deserving of being faded, and the possibility of using a substitute who might make an impact while being low owned.

Megan Rapinoe, Alex Morgan and Eugenie Le Sommer are the three-most expensive players on both sites, though their order is slightly different. Here is what we're facing salary-wise (all columns are sortable):

Starting XIs shouldn't be all that different from what we've seen at other stages in the tournament, or at least we are highly unlikely to get some tremendous unexpected value play who will end up being really highly owned just because they're cheap. So, while Tierna Davidson looks great with her 63.65 points per game average on DraftKings and 37.90 on FanDuel while being close to minimum price, it's doubtful she gets the start in such a huge game. Here are the lineups we're expecting to see:

France: Sarah Bouhaddi, Amel Majri, Wendie Renard, Griedge Mbock Bathy, Marion Torrent, Elise Bussaglia, Amandine Henry, Gaetane Thiney, Kadidiatou Diani, Valerie Gauvin, Eugenie Le Sommer

USA: Alyssa Naeher, Crystal Dunn, Becky Sauerbrunn, Abby Dahlkemper, Kelley O'Hara, Julie Ertz, Samantha Mewis, Rose Lavelle, Megan Rapinoe, Tobin Heath, Alex Morgan

There are a few players France could use who aren't included in our predicted lineup, including Viviane Asseyi, who started each of the past two games, and Delphine Cascarino, with Eve Perisset and Charlotte Bilbault unlikely to break through despite starts earlier in the tournament. Asseyi started in place of Thiney against Brazil in the round of 16 and in place of Diani in the final group stage match, and she certainly performed, finishing with three shots, three chances created, seven crosses, nine fouls drawn while winning all nine of her tackles over those two games. She's subsequently more expensive than the other two on both sites, so getting another start actually makes it harder from a salary perspective.

For the U.S., Lindsey Horan could come back into the starting XI after she was on the bench for the round of 16 match against Spain because she was one yellow card away from suspension, and her inclusion in the lineup likely means either Mewis or Lavelle sits, as it's unlikely Ertz is moved to the bench or back to center-back for Dahlkemper. Morgan has been a bit banged up recently, including taking a few hard knocks during the Spain match, and if manager Jill Ellis sees her as not fit enough to start, Carli Lloyd would likely take her place. Given her upside, Lloyd will probably be owned in these big tournaments even if she doesn't start, especially since she has higher anytime goal scorer odds than anyone from France.

Speaking of which, Morgan unsurprisingly has the best odds to score at +130, but she was also held without a shot during the Spain match despite playing 85 minutes. It appeared at one point like she was going to take the second penalty after Rapinoe (+165 to score) converted the first, but Rapinoe eventually took the ball after a VAR review and completed her brace. With the expectation she'll stay on penalties and the fact she has a role on corners, Rapinoe is likely to be pretty popular in cash games and GPPs.

However, given that the match isn't expected to have a lot of goals in it, it may be wise to not pay up for the players who need goals to pay off their five-figure salaries and instead focus on the creators who are still solid attackers. Mewis, Lavelle and Horan are reasonably priced on both sites and have shown solid upside at times. The same can be said about Ertz, though she's more defensive and probably needs a set piece to get on the scoresheet. As mentioned before, Lloyd could be a popular bench option given how many entries are in each contest, but if you want to go even deeper in terms of lower-owned players, Mallory Pugh and Christen Press should get some attention. Both are active on the wings, and Press even has a role on set pieces when she's on the field, so it's certainly not crazy to think they could make an impact, especially if the match goes into extra time. In fact, the odds of a draw (which would force extra time) are +220, which is pretty close to France's +210 odds to win.

And while the odds don't favor France, you have to think the home-field advantage will play a major role, even with the U.S. team having significant support in their matches. It actually seems like a best-case scenario for both sides, as France gets to play on home soil while the Americans get to play the bully role of trying to ruin the party.

Cash-game players will surely focus on Amel Majri because of how ridiculously active she is on the wing. Not only has she sent in 42 crosses in four starts, including at least 10 in each, but she also created 16 chances over that span, helping her to three assists. That kind of floor makes her viable on both sites, and while $11 as a defender on FanDuel requires some tinkering elsewhere, she's stupidly cheap on DraftKings at $7,400, especially with a role on set pieces. Paying up for Le Sommer feels like you're spending a lot for a penalty, but she's likely to be lower owned than the U.S. front line. In fact, you could make the same case for the cheaper French players as the American ones in that it might be more beneficial to save some salary and focus on plays like Henry, Asseyi, Thiney, Diani or Gauvin instead of Le Sommer given the savings.

Another name that sticks out, or really her price, is Wendie Renard, who is only $5,000 on DraftKings and $10 on FanDuel. You won't be able to play Majri and Renard together on the latter site, but Renard's presence on set pieces simply can't be ignored in tournaments. Then again, if you're trying to jam in high-priced players, the other center-backs in the match will be targeted, including Griedge Mbock Bathy, Dahlkemper and Sauerbrunn, though at their DraftKings prices I'd probably be more interested in paying slightly more for a midfielder like Elise Bussaglia.