Women's World Cup: Monday DFS Breakdown

While we still have classic two-game slates on DraftKings and FanDuel for Monday's Women's World Cup action, there will likely be more focus on the United States v. Spain match because of $20,000 GPPs on both sites, with the former requiring a $10 entry and the latter $9.

That match kicks off the day at 12:00 p.m. EDT, and unsurprisingly the Americans are favored, with their win odds sitting at -310 on FanDuel Sportsbook as of Sunday evening. Spain, meanwhile, are +800 to win after beating South Africa 3-1, losing to Germany 1-0 and finishing the group stage with a scoreless draw against China. The U.S. comes in having scored multiple goals in each of their three group stage games, a 13-0 win over Thailand, a 3-0 win over Chile and a 2-0 victory over Sweden, who is a +230 underdog against Canada (+140) in the second match of the day. The biggest difficulty with getting value out of the Americans is that so many players are producing that targeting just a few means you're going to end up missing out on someone. Here's the goal breakdown we've seen so far (* indicates substitute):

And if totaling them makes it easier for you, here it is:

So, you could look at Alex Morgan and think that she leads the team in goals and co-leads in assists, but they all came in the Thailand match, and she comes in with a knock that forced her off at halftime of the Sweden game. Manager Jill Ellis said Morgan is good to go for M, but it's unclear if she'll get the start or if Lloyd will come back into the starting XI. Either way, whoever leads the line for the Americans will be an elite option. Their individual goal odds aren't spectacular, but Morgan at -135, Carli Lloyd and Megan Rapinoe at +100 and Tobin Heath (who surprisingly hasn't scored or assisted yet) at +110 are all better than anyone else on the slate, while Press at +185, Pugh at +200 and Jessica McDonald, none of whom are likely to start, at +220 are all better than Jennifer Hermoso, who leads Spain's goal scorer odds at +340. The one player who sticks out on DraftKings from a salary perspective has to be Mewis, who is only $9,500 on the showdown slate and $7,400 on classic despite her two goals on nine shots (four on target) and three assists on nine chances created in two starts. Even with those great returns, it's possible she actually doesn't start Monday if Julie Ertz makes her way back in, though it seems more likely that Mewis will keep her spot and Lavelle could be benched. It's certainly a plethora of riches for the Americans. And speaking of these riches, she's highly unlikely to start, but Tierna Davidson is only $3,300 on DraftKings' classic slate despite her two-assist outing that included nine crosses and a role on corners.

Heath has been quite the enigma for the U.S. because she is a really important piece of their attack but she just can't seem to get on the scoresheet despite the 750 goals they've scored this tournament (I may have to check that number again). She's only $8,000 on DraftKings' classic slate and $14 on FanDuel ($10,300 and $14 on the showdown/single game contests, respectively), but it's just really hard to see rostering her and expecting her to produce in a match when Rapinoe or Lloyd or Morgan don't. Lloyd is surprisingly cheap on both sites given that she may lead the line if Morgan isn't fit enough to start, though you have to go in knowing she's highly unlikely to play 90 minutes and could play as few as 45. Then again, the same applies to Morgan and she costs $4,700 more than Lloyd on DraftKings' showdown slate and $8 more on FanDuel, where Lloyd costs only $8. It seems a bit crazy to go into a single-game/showdown contest where the United States is a big favorite where the odds of both teams scoring sit at +122 versus -172 for only one team scoring and deciding to fade the players with the highest goal-scoring odds, but there may be something to prioritizing players like Mewis, Lavelle and Lindsey Horan and letting others hope for big games out of Morgan, Rapinoe, Heath or Lloyd.

Meanwhile, Spain's Hermoso has been a fantasy star on DraftKings, scoring at least 9.50 fantasy points in each outing thanks to 15 shots, including seven on goal, 11 chances created and 24 crosses in three starts. Her $7,500 price on the classic slate seems really cheap for a player of her caliber until you remember she's facing the no. 1 ranked team in the world, and she's likely taking up a roster spot from an American attacker. If you want to go cheaper, midfielder Marta Corredera has been a solid fantasy scorer because she's taken multiple shots, won multiple tackles and intercepted multiple passes in each of the three group stage games, but she's really not cheap enough to warrant a ton of consideration on a single-game slate, especially since she's only $1 less than Horan, $1 more than Lloyd and $3 more than Ertz. Given the expected lopsided nature of the match, it wouldn't be surprising to see people paying down for a Spanish center-back on FanDuel in order to load up with American attackers, while the same could apply to DraftKings because they are so cheap. Then again, if you think Spain can get a little going, we can hope that Patri Guijarro gets another start after a really good showing against China when she put three of five shots on target, won three tackles and drew three fouls.

In terms of the classic slates, it seems much more viable to focus on players from Canada and Sweden than Spain, with their match showing +108 for both teams to score versus -152 for just one. Canada is the favored side, but Sweden showed during the group stage that they won't be pushed around, beating Chile 2-0, Thailand 5-1 and then losing to the U.S. 2-0. The biggest decision from this match will be whether fantasy players on DraftKings decide to pay up for Janine Beckie or save the forward spot for another American attacker. Despite not being nearly as high a favorite, Beckie is the sixth-highest priced player on DraftKings' classic slate, and it's possible only one or two of the players ahead of her actually start. She has been a cash-game dream, scoring at least 14.50 floor points in every match, coming in with 15 shots (five in all three group stage games), including four on goal, 29 crosses, 12 chances created, five fouls drawn and five interceptions. Rostering her certainly makes it tough to load up on Americans, but you're also unlikely to get as good a floor from another player. Christine Sinclair has the best anytime goal scorer odds in the match at +175 (Beckie is +340), and fantasy players are probably more likely to look her way instead of Nichelle Prince, if both start. But again, the problem is that you're choosing to roster them over the likes of Dunn, Horan and Mewis (both are midfielders) or Sweden star Kosovare Asllani, who was pretty terrible against the United Sates but still managed to score in each of the other group stage matches, including a dominant performance against Chile when she had one goal, one assist on six chances created, eight crosses and five fouls drawn.

Sweden's attackers will probably be under-owned on the classic slates because Canada has been really good defensively and people will probably turn their attention there or the American, so Asllani, Anna Anvegard, Fridolina Rolfo or Stina Blackstenius will have solid leverage if they start and score. Meanwhile, Magdalena Eriksson didn't start against the U.S. but sent in 10 crosses against Chile and another 10 against Thailand thanks to a role on set pieces. She may not get a plethora of opportunities against Canada, but a $4,100 price on DraftKings isn't bad for a set-piece taker, even if she's an underdog.