Women's World Cup: USA v. Netherlands Final Breakdown

Two of the biggest GPPs in fantasy soccer are being offered Sunday, with both DraftKings and FanDuel posting $12-entry tournaments with $111,000 and $100,000 guaranteed, respectively. Some of the biggest payouts in DFS soccer will also occur, with the top prize on DraftKings sitting at $25,000, while FanDuel will be paying $20,000 to the first place entry(ies). (and if you're curious, eighth place pays $700 and $500, respectively.) The matchup between the United States and the Netherlands in the World Cup final is highly anticipated, though the oddsmakers have a firm favorite going in.

Despite winning all six matches leading up to the final, outscoring their opponents 11-3, including shutouts in each of their last two, the Netherlands are +700 underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook to win in regular time and +400 to win the tournament. Meanwhile, the United States are -240 to win in 90 minutes but -600 to win in either extra time or penalties. Goals are expected, though not a lot of them, with the over 2.5 sitting at -118 and the under is -106. Additionally, the odds of both teams scoring are -106 versus -132 for only one team to find the back of the net.

To simplify things, here's a breakdown of the players' salaries, positions, average points scored and anytime goal scorer odds (each column is sortable): 

As expected, Alex Morgan and Megan Rapinoe are the two most expensive players on both sites, though FanDuel has Vivianne Miedema tied with Rapinoe. Given the Americans' high win odds, it will be no surprise when they're highly owned. The U.S. lineup has some question marks, as Rapinoe didn't play the semi-final because of a hamstring injury and Rose Lavelle left that match early because of her own hamstring problem. Both players have said they are fit to play, though that doesn't guarantee they're fit enough to start. Lavelle's minutes have been consistently inconsistent in that she's only played more than 65 minutes once, so even if she does start, it seems unlikely she'll go the distance. She has dealt with hamstring injuries a number of times in her career, so the latest issue is not one to take lightly. Meanwhile, Rapinoe seemed pretty upbeat about her availability, but you can't forget that the injury kept her from playing at all against England in the semi-final.

Morgan finally broke out of her goal slump by finding the back of the net against the English, and she's probably going to be the highest-owned player in GPPs and cash games if Rapinoe doesn't start. If they both do, they're still likely to be very highly owned, and there will be plenty of people trying to play them together, especially with both sites allowing for 150 entries. Taking up 52.6 percent of the salary cap on DraftKings and 60.0 percent on FanDuel doesn't exactly lead to a balanced lineup, but they're the two most likely goal scorers in a match that probably doesn't have a lot of goals. Unfortunately, Rapinoe being on the bench doesn't really save us much since most people considering Rapinoe would probably pivot to Christen Press, who is $12,000 on DraftKings and $12 on FanDuel. Press has been expensive throughout the tournament on DraftKings, but her substitute-price on FanDuel is a thing of the past.

The easier path to cheaper U.S. exposure, as it's been all tournament, is through the midfield, with Lindsey Horan moderately priced on DraftKings and cheap on FanDuel, while Samantha Mewis and Lavelle provide more attacking upside at decent salaries. Lavelle's injury would be what allows Mewis to get back into the starting XI, with Julie Ertz, who is a beast on set pieces but doesn't do a lot of attacking in open play, also an option. Meanwhile, the U.S. fullbacks are always possibilities in GPPs, though Crystal Dunn is still weirdly a forward, and priced as such, on DraftKings despite playing all of her minutes at left-back. You could also hope to get lucky with an Abby Dahlkemper or Becky Sauerbrunn goal, though their most important attribute on DraftKings is that they're cheap.

The Dutch attackers are fairly cheap on DraftKings, though that's to be expected since they are such big underdogs. Lieke Martens will get some attention if she's fit enough to start after playing just 45 minutes in the semi-final against Sweden because of a toe injury, but we could get an even cheaper option in Jill Roord, who is $5 on FanDuel and $7,000 on DraftKings, if she's the Martens replacement. Then again, how much exposure to the Dutch attack do you want if they're missing one of their best players? Vivianne Miedema would certainly be a viable pivot after taking 13 shots in the past three games, including at least four in each, though if the U.S. tries to control possession, it might be tough for her to get those shots off. The Netherlands are certainly not going to back down, and while you'll have to likely give up on one of the higher-cost Americans to roster her on FanDuel, she's cheaper than the expected U.S. starting midfielders on DraftKings.

If set pieces are what you're after, Sherida Spitse is the key for the Netherlands, and she comes in with very well-rounded box scores on DraftKings, putting up two assists on seven chances created, four shots (one on goal), 12 crosses, six fouls drawn, six interceptions and five tackles won in the past two games. Given the lack of scoring expected from the Dutch, Spitse makes more sense than Miedema and Martens in cash games, and possibly GPPs too if they don't score a goal. Unfortunately, like Miedema, you won't get a Spitse discount on FanDuel, as only Miedema, Morgan and Rapinoe are more expensive. Going a bit off the standard Dutch attackers will be a decent GPP strategy, as one of Lineth Beerensteyn or Shanice van de Sanden are likely to be pretty low owned for a front-line player in a single-game format, though midfielders like Danielle van de Donk and Jackie Groenen could be even lower. All of the Dutch defenders are fairly cheap on DraftKings too, though the opposite is true on FanDuel, with Desiree van Lunteren and Dominique Bloodworth two of the three most expensive at the position. van Lunteren is coming off a great 35.3 fantasy points on FanDuel against Sweden, though you may have to chalk that one up to the official scorer from Opta, who credited her with nine interceptions after she had eight in her previous five starts combined. Yes, that last game went 120 minutes, but she only had more than two in 90 minutes once before that. At least Bloodworth had two games with eight clearances. If anything, I could see people looking at American Abby Dahlkemper's $4 price on FanDuel as just too cheap despite her really pedestrian returns.

And speaking of 120 minutes, this match could certainly go the distance, just like any other knockout round match in a World Cup. Given her injury issues, expecting Rapinoe to go 90 (or 120) seems crazy, so guessing someone like Press or Carli Lloyd or Mallory Pugh to come off the bench and save the Americans is definitely a viable strategy for people willing to throw enough lineups into these GPPs, though that strategy makes very little sense in cash games. Lloyd could get some attention from those hoping to get lucky, though Pugh may be even more interesting because fewer people will be looking her way. Then again, maybe we forget about the subs and finally get our money's worth on Tobin Heath!