This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Tuesday marks the last of the first-round matches at Roland Garros, allowing us to take stock of what we have seen so far and prepare for the week ahead. While no major shocks have come our way to this point, we did say goodbye to a top-10 player on the men's side in Felix Auger-Aliassime, an upset that was predicted in a previous edition of this article series. Our picks this time around include a mix of established veterans and baby faces looking to make a name for themselves. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, The men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
Upset Alert
Sara Errani (+390) vs. Irina-Camelia Begu
The line here seems mostly informed by the last two meetings between Errani and Begu, which have been won by the Romanian player in an emphatic fashion. However, this play is based primarily on the former finalist's sparkling record at the French Open, which currently stands at 30-15. The Italian player also has a better record on clay than her opponent this season, though it must be noted that most of that time has been spent at the ITF level. If this line were a bit closer, we may not consider it, but Begu is far from a consistent performer, which leaves plenty of meat on the bone.
Dominic Stephan Stricker (+210) vs. Tommy Paul
We've spoken about court familiarity in the past, but I've yet to state outright that one of my favorite ways to look for upsets is to find an underdog against a higher-ranked player who has made their bones on a different surface. Paul fits this mold to a tee, as he has logged a 20-11 record on Tour this season but holds just a 4-5 record on clay. Stricker has played almost exclusively on the Challenger circuit this year, notching a 7-2 record on the soft stuff. We had good luck with Clara Tauson as a debutante in Paris, and while I can't promise the same result, it may be worth selecting a player with whom the bookmakers seem unfamiliar.
Honorable Mention
Hugo Dellien (+255) against Nicolas Jarry
Lock it in
Francisco Cerundolo (-285) vs. Jaume Munar
Those who have been following along this week may have noticed that I tend to boost the credentials of any given player by highlighting a recent victory of Cerundolo. This is because the Argentine is one of the hotter players on Tour heading into Roland Garros, having notched six wins in his last eight matches, including victories over two top 15 players in Jannik Sinner and Cameron Norrie. Munar has never beaten Cerundolo in two meetings on clay and will have a hard time dictating against an opponent who can hit such heavy groundstrokes.
Yannick Hanfmann (-250) vs. Thiago Monteiro
Hanfmann is another player who has gotten positive ink from us this week, due in no small part to the 25-10 mark he's notched on clay this season. He also gave a strong accounting of himself in Rome, tallying a win over the No. 7 ATP-ranked Andrey Rublev. Monteiro's struggles on clay this year (7-9 record), as well as a 3-1 match deficit against Hanfmann, make this an easy pick at a fairly reasonable price.
Honorable Mention
Ons Jabeur (-500) vs. Lucia Bronzetti
Value Bets
Giulio Zeppieri (-125) vs. Alexander Bublik
Bublik has been vocal in his dislike for clay court tennis. This is more than just airing a bit of frustration, as the player from Kazakhstan has never logged a winning season on clay and is currently sitting at 5-8 on the surface in 2023. Zeppeiri's 13-11 mark on the soft stuff is actually a big departure from recent years, but his comfortability on the surface should pay big dividends against a player who can quit on himself when the chips are down. Bublik's win over Pedro Martinez in Rome was mildly surprising, but he has yet to show that he can be consistent on his least favorite surface.
Richard Gasquet (-140) vs. Arthur Rinderknech
As both players have performed below expectation in 2023, this pick is chiefly based on the event, as Gasquet has logged a stout 29-19 record at Roland Garros, while Rinderknech has yet to tally a win in Paris in three attempts. Gasquet's 11-14 mark on Tour this year may not be ideal, but he is in a much better spot than Rinderknech, who has won just four of his 14 matches at the highest level. I expect Gasquet's experience to carry him in this all-French affair against an opponent who is not used to going deep in Major tournaments.
Honorable Mention
Petra Martic (-140) vs. Shelby Rogers
