This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells continues Monday, including numerous clashes between seeded opponents. A pair of Frenchmen will look to keep their runs going with upset wins, while a couple of Americans -- including a former champion here -- will try to give the crowd something to cheer about, though this could be the end of the road for an upstart American on the women's side. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Arthur Fils (+205) vs. Casper Ruud
Ruud is off to a strong start this season, but the world No. 9 is much more vulnerable on hard court than clay, with a 58.9 percent career hard-court win percentage, compared to a 72.9 percent clay-court mark. The Norwegian broke serve only once in his 6-4, 7-6 (4) second-round win over Lukas Klein, and Ruud's unlikely to make inroads against Fils' serve considering the unseeded Frenchman has been broken only once all tournament while racking up a pair of straight-sets victories. Fils is supremely talented, and the buy-low window on the 19-year-old Frenchman may not be open much longer.
Adrian Mannarino (+250) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Mannarino is 0-4 against Dimitrov -- all on hard courts -- but the veteran Frenchman has come tantalizingly close in two of their last three meetings, losing a third-set tiebreak in Acapulco in 2020 and falling 7-5 in the third the last time they met in Washington in 2022. Dimitrov's having a strong season overall, but the world No. 13 has been prone to lapses throughout his career, such as his surprising third-round loss to Nuno Borges at the Australian Open. Mannarino's unconventional strokes worked well in these conditions in his first match, as the No. 21 seed cruised by Tomas Machac 6-1, 6-2 in the second round after a first-round bye.
Honorable Mention
Caroline Dolehide (+180) vs. Yue Yuan
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Taylor Fritz (-550) vs. Sebastian Baez
Fritz has played some of his best tennis at Indian Wells over the years. It's his favorite tournament, as the local kid often attended as a youngster and boasts a 14-2 record at this tournament since the 2021 event, including a title in 2022. The 6-foot-5 American's superior serve and power off the ground should allow him to control play against the 5-foot-7 Baez. Only seven spots separate these two in the rankings, but the difference between them is much greater in this environment, as Baez is much more comfortable on clay while there may not be another venue where Fritz is more comfortable than Indian Wells.
Holger Rune (-300) vs. Lorenzo Musetti
Thanks to a bye followed by a walkover, Rune hasn't had to lift a finger to reach the third round, so he may need a few games to shake off the rust and adjust to the conditions. Once he gets rolling, it should be smooth sailing for the No. 7 seed. Rune's superior firepower off the ground will enable him to push around the crafty Musetti, who's off to a slow start in 2024. The 22-year-old Italian is just 5-7 in 2024 and has a sub-.500 career hard-court record, while the 20-year-old Rune has won nearly 62 percent of his career matches on this surface. Rune won their only previous encounter in straight sets last year.
Honorable Mention
Coco Gauff (-1100) vs. Lucia Bronzetti
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Tommy Paul (-105) vs. Ugo Humbert
Humbert's on a roll coming off a title in Dubai, which has propelled the Frenchman to three spots above Paul in the rankings. The 17th-ranked American still has a substantial edge in big-match experience, though, as Paul reached the semifinals of a Grand Slam (Australian Open) and Masters 1000 event (Canadian Open) in 2023 after making two Masters 1000 quarterfinals in 2022, while Humbert has been to only two Masters 1000 quarterfinals in his career. Paul won their only previous meeting in straight sets last year in Cincinnati, so Paul looks to have a slight edge in this matchup, even though Humbert has been hot lately.
Elina Svitolina (-160) vs. Emma Navarro
Navarro survived a 4-6, 7-5, 7-5 second-round thriller against Svitolina's Ukrainian compatriot Lesia Tsurenko in the second round, but Svitolina presents a step up in competition for the 23rd-seeded American. This will be only the second career WTA 1000 third-round match for the 22-year-old American, who has never reached this stage at a Grand Slam. Meanwhile, Svitolina has been to at least the third round in 23 of her last 24 Grand Slams played, so the 16th-seeded veteran is comfortable at this stage in big tournaments and has an extensive history of getting through players of Navarro's ilk.
Honorable Mention
Cameron Norrie (+105) vs. Gael Monfils
