This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The women will play two of their quarterfinals Tuesday at the Miami Open, while the men are scheduled to play their entire Round of 16, so there's no shortage of highly anticipated matchups on the docket. A red-hot top-10 seed on the women's side makes for an enticing pick as a substantial underdog, while a former world No. 2 on the men's side should continue to showcase his hard-court bona fides on the heels of a milestone win.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the Miami Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Miami Open Picks: Upset Alert
Maria Sakkari (+200) vs. Elena Rybakina
Rybakina' rightfully favored in this match after righting the ship with a 6-3, 7-5 third-round win over Madison Keys following three-setters in her first two matches, but Sakkari's chances are underrated given her form since pairing up with coach David Witt. Sakkari reached the final of Indian Wells, and while she got lucky with a fourth-round walkover against Anna Kalinskaya here, Sakkari preceded that result with a pair of straight-sets wins. The hard courts in Miami play relatively fast, which benefits the big-serving, big-hitting Rybakina, but Sakkari's superior movement should give her the edge in any extended rallies. This clash of styles has produced some entertaining encounters between these two in the past, with Rybakina winning a third-set tiebreak at the 2023 WTA Finals to move ahead 2-1 in their head-to-head.
Honorable Mention
Karen Khachanov (+175) vs. Alexander Zverev
Miami Open Odds: Lock It In
Victoria Azarenka (-270) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Azarenka's eyeing a fourth Miami Open title, and she has been in great form at the 2024 edition. In her last two matches, the No. 27 seed took out No. 7 seed Qinwen Zheng and No. 24 seed Katie Boulter without dropping a set. The unseeded Putintseva has outplayed her No. 68 ranking lately, winning seven of eight matches since the start of Indian Wells, but Azarenka's massive edge in big-match experience and comfort level at this venue make her the clear favorite in this quarterfinal. This will be Putintseva's seventh quarterfinal at a WTA 1000 or Grand Slam event, and she has lost the first six.
Casper Ruud (-215) vs. Nicolas Jarry
After a down year in 2023, Ruud is looking much more like he did in 2022, when he climbed to No. 2 in the rankings and reached the final of both the French Open and US Open. While Ruud was still excellent on clay last year, his hard-court form slipped, but those struggles have become a distant memory after an 18-4 start to 2024. Ruud's 6-3, 6-4 third-round win over Alejandro Davidovich Fokina marked the 25-year-old Norwegian's 100th career hard-court win, making him the youngest current male player with at least 100 wins apiece on clay and hard courts. Jarry has a nice all-court game thanks to an excellent serve, and the South American tennis fans always show up in full force in Miami, but the 23rd-ranked Chilean will have trouble hanging in rallies with the eighth-ranked Ruud, as Ruud is the far superior mover and can control rallies with his elite forehand. Ruud leads their head-to-head 2-1, including 1-0 on hard courts.
Honorable Mention
Daniil Medvedev (-750) vs. Dominik Koepfer
Miami Open Predictions: Value Bets
Tomas Machac (-130) vs. Matteo Arnaldi
Machac and Arnaldi are both in the first Masters 1000 fourth round of their respective careers, and one of these unseeded 23-year-olds will continue on to their first such quarterfinal. Both talented youngsters are rapidly ascending, as each entered this event boasting a career high ranking (No. 38 for Arnaldi and No. 60 for Machac). Arnaldi has the edge in big-match experience, having reached the Round of 16 at the 2023 US Open, but Machac has racked up the more impressive victories at this tournament, outclassing No. 5 seed Andrey Rublev 6-4, 6-4 in the second round before showing nerves of steel to escape with a 5-7, 7-5, 7-6 (5) victory over Andy Murray. Arnaldi hasn't dropped a set while taking out Arthur Fils, Alexander Bublik and Denis Shapovalov, but the Italian hasn't been asked to respond to adversity, and Arnaldi's 3-4 record in his last seven three-set matches suggests that's an area that still needs improvement.
Honorable Mention
Grigor Dimitrov (-140) vs. Hubert Hurkacz
