This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Round 3 of the French Open ended unceremoniously for a top seed on the women's side, as No. 4 Elena Rybakina had to withdraw from her match against Sara Sorribes Tormo due to Illness. The Men's draw saw veteran Grigor Dimitrov roll through Daniel Altmaier, while the No. 9 seed Taylor Fritz played an uncharacteristically sloppy match after taking the first set to lose in four frames against Francisco Cerundolo. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
Alcaraz is the World No. 1 for a reason, but I don't like how hard he's had to work in this tournament against mediocre competition, dropping a set 6-1 to Taro Daniel and hitting a combined 60 unforced errors in his last two matches. Compare this to Musetti, who notched a 30:18 ratio of winners to unforced errors in his first-round match against Alexander Shevchenko before breezing past a man who has had a terrific season on clay in Cameron Norrie. We should also note that while they are 1-1 in career meetings, the Italian won their only match on Tour, beating Alcaraz in three sets last year in Hamburg. Alcaraz gets himself in trouble by taking too many chances, while Musetti is the perfect combination of control and aggression.
Lock it in
The popularity of Stephens seems to have kept this line fairly manageable. The women's No. 2 has bested Stephens in all three of their previous meetings, though it must be pointed out they have never played on clay. A year ago, it would be difficult to imagine calling Sabalenka the cleaner player against almost any top-20 opponent, but the Belarussian has been the picture of ruthless efficiency in Paris, as she has faced just six break points in her first three matches, while Stephens had to contend with 17 break points (losing five) in her last match alone. Both women have had good clay court seasons, but current form and head-to-head history don't give us much to think about here.
In an effort to provide as much content as possible while the field dwindles, we are kind of merging a value play with an upset here, as Sonego has looked in his best form every step of the way at Roland Garros. The Italian not only came back from a two-set deficit to upset Andrey Rublev on Friday but showed incredible power and precision in the process, blasting 76 winners. Khachanov has looked shaky more often than not in Paris, having to come from two sets down against the World No. 70 Constant Lestienne before salting away Thanasi Kokkinakis in a nail-biting fourth-set tiebreak. It's not quite accurate to say either one of these men is out of form, rather that Sonego has shown the greater resolve against tougher competition. In a match between two excellent players, that is enough for me to take a shot on the underdog.
Tormo has proven the naysayers (namely, me) wrong throughout this tournament, but I think it's fair to say that the party ends here, as Haddad Maia is listed a whopping 118 places above her in the WTA rankings. This doesn't mean no further analysis is required, of course, but it does indicate the difference in level the two have been playing at this season. The Brazilian really looked to find her form just prior to the start of this tournament, notching wins over Elena Rybakina and Martina Trevisan in Stuttgart before losing a tough quarterfinal match in Rome against Anhelina Kalinina. Tormo won just 20 percent of her second-serve points during her second-round win over Petra Martic, while actually having to fend off one more break point than her opponent (11). None of this makes a case for repeatable success against a player in Haddad Maia who is always attacking on court.