The fourth round of the Australian Open begins Sunday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Saturday night in the United States. A pair of ascendant young players will try to take out favored Grand Slam champions, while previous head-to-head results may not be a forward-looking indicator for certain matchups.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Learner Tien (+181) vs. Daniil Medvedev
This is a rematch of a second-round clash at last year's Australian Open, which Tien won in a fifth-set tiebreak. Tien added another hard-court win over Medvedev later in 2025, though Medvedev exacted a modicum of revenge with a hard-court victory of his own, which came down to 6-4 in the third set. The 20-year-old Tien's well-rounded game style has given Medvedev plenty of problems in their meetings so far, as the young American does a remarkable job for his age of avoiding dips in focus and maintaining his level, while Medvedev has started to go through a lot more peaks and valleys during matches over the course of the past year. Medvedev was in deep trouble in the third round before ultimately climbing out of a two-set hole against Fabian Marozsan, and if the 11th-seeded Russian brings the same level he had in the first three sets of that match, it will likely result in his second Australian Open loss to Tien in as many years.
Victoria Mboko (+412) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Mboko demonstrated an extremely high ceiling in winning the Canadian Open last year, and the Canadian teenager showed tremendous mental fortitude in the third round here, as she bounced back after failing to convert three match points in the second set to knock off No. 14 seed Clara Tauson, 7-6 (5), 5-7, 6-3. Like Mboko's matchup with Tauson, this match will pit the No. 17 seed's outstanding retrieving skills against the superior offense of Sabalenka. The world No. 1 played a spotty and error-filled match in her 7-6 (4), 7-6 (7) win over Anastasia Potapova in the third round, and Mboko's ability to get extra balls back will cause trouble for Sabalenka if the Belaursian doesn't clean up her game substantially. Sabalenka's more than capable of doing so considering she hasn't lost before the quarterfinals of a Grand Slam since the 2022 French Open, but Mboko's impressive skill set should allow the young underdog to pose a much greater challenge than the odds suggest.
Honorable Mention
Tommy Paul (+565) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Mirra Andreeva (-198) vs. Elina Svitolina
Andreeva's into the Round of 16 at the Australian Open for the third time in as many tries, and it's likely just a matter of time until the supremely talented 18-year-old starts racking up major titles. A fourth Grand Slam quarterfinal appearance would mark another step in the right direction, and Andreeva comes into this match on a roll, having dropped only one set during her current seven-match winning streak while losing no more than four games during any of her other 14 sets during this stretch. Andreeva has all the necessary counters to Svitolina's solid ball-striking while also bringing far superior athleticism and more variety to the court. Svitolina tends to come up a little short when facing the cream of the crop, which is why she's just 3-10 in Grand Slam quarterfinal matches in her career and lost in the semifinals all three times she managed to get through the QFs. Andreeva has a five-spot edge in the rankings at No. 7 and won their only previous meeting in straight sets on the hard courts of Indian Wells last year.
Alexander Zverev (-255) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Zverev is ranked 18 spots ahead of Cerundolo at No. 3 and has much more experience in the second week of Grand Slams, as this is the first time Cerundolo has made it to the Round of 16 at a hard-court major while Zverev is trying to reach at least the semifinals of the Australian Open for a third consecutive year. Cerundolo actually won their first three head-to-head meetings, all on clay, but Zverev responded with a pair of hard-court victories in 2025 during which the German didn't drop a set. Cerundolo will look to get into as many forehand-to-forehand rallies as possible, but Zverev's superior backhand and ability to earn many more free points on serve will likely prove to be the difference in this one. Zverev has been in a nice serving rhythm, recording at least 15 aces in each of his first three matches with a first-serve percentage north of 70 percent in the tournament.
Honorable Mention
Iva Jovic (-339) vs. Yulia Putintseva
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Karolina Muchova (+159) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff has won all four of the previous encounters between these two in straight sets, but these odds understate Muchova's chances of winning this match based on recent form and the conditions. Muchova doesn't have the power to consistently hit through Gauff's impressive defense, but the hard courts here play pretty fast, which should give Muchova a little more ability to penetrate the court with her groundstrokes and approach shots, making it more difficult for Guaff to consistently come up with passes when Muchova gets forward. Gauff has made it past the Round of 16 only twice in six previous tries at the Australian Open, and both of these players have been as far as the semifinals here. Muchova has played her way into form here, raising her level substantially in a 6-1, 6-1 third-round win over Magda Linette after a pair of lackluster performances in the first two rounds. Gauff dropped the first set against Hailey Baptiste in the third round and has continued to struggle serving, with just two aces compared to 17 double faults at this tournament.
Honorable Mention
Alexander Bublik (+133) vs. Alex de Minaur
