The third round of the Australian Open begins Friday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia, with the action starting Thursday night in the United States. A couple of seeded Americans will face top-10 opponents, while a former semifinalist here tries to pull off a second top-20 upset at this year's event.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Frances Tiafoe (+407) vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur is seeded sixth here while Tiafoe is the No. 29 seed, but the gap in ability between these two is far smaller than the difference in their seeding suggests. Tiafoe's aggressive game style gives him a higher ceiling than the counterpunching de Minaur, which is why the American has been to a pair of Grand Slam semifinals while the favored Aussie has failed to surpass the quarterfinals in six attempts at that stage. De Minaur has won three of their previous four matchups, but Tiafoe has won at least one set in every encounter. A strong serving day will likely be required for Tiafoe to pull off the upset given the large disparity between his excellent first serve and attackable second serve, but he has the ability to find a rhythm and cruise through service games while de Minaur will need to work hard for every hold if Tiafoe doesn't let him off the hook with mental lapses.
Magda Linette (+311) vs. Karolina Muchova
Muchova hasn't bee very sharp to start this tournament, converting just eight of 29 break-point opportunities, which resulted in her narrowly avoiding a third set with an 8-6 tiebreak win over Jaqueline Cristian in the first round and having to dig her way out of a hole in a 4-6, 6-4, 6-4 second-round victory over Alycia Parks. Linette has already taken out a top-20 seed in Emma Navarro, and the 2023 Australian Open semifinalist backed that victory up by taking out Ann Li in straight sets for Linette's second top-40 win of this tournament. Muchova's superior variety makes her the better player when she's on her game, and the favored Czech has a 3-1 edge in their head-to-head, but Linette has been in better form so far at this event.
Honorable Mention
Clara Tauson (+149) vs. Victoria Mboko
Australian Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Alexander Bublik (-384) vs. Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Bublik has dealt well with a somewhat tricky draw, as the No. 10 seed didn't drop a set to either Jenson Brooksby or Marton Fucsovics in the first two rounds. The 62nd-ranked Etcheverry is less accomplished on hard courts than either of those two players, as he has never been past the third round of a hard-court Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event and has just a 42-49 career record on the surface. Bublik's big serve should carry him in this one as he looks to build on his perfect 6-0 start to the 2026 season.
Alexander Zverev (-435) vs. Cameron Norrie
Zverev is a perfect 6-0 against Norrie in his career and has dropped only two sets across those six matches, though they both came in a five-set thriller at the 2024 Australian Open that came down to a deciding-set tiebreak. The margin's likely to be larger this time around as the 28-year-old Zverev remains at the peak of his powers as the world No. 3 while the 30-year-old Norrie has declined from his top-10 days to the 27th spot in the rankings. Zverev's cautious game style on the ground works well against Norrie, who lacks any big weapons to consistently take command of points, and Zverev has a massive edge when it comes to getting free points on serve. The backhand is the more solid wing for the favored German, which neutralizes the lefty Norrie's preferred game plan of rolling forehands to that wing.
Honorable Mention
Daniil Medvedev (-488) vs. Fabian Marozsan
Australian Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Andrey Rublev (-145) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Both of these players love to blast forehands, but Rublev gets more out of his serve and is the better hard-court player. The Russian has a narrow six-spot edge in the rankings at No. 15, but Rublev has seven hard-court Grand Slam quarterfinal showings in his career compared to none for Cerundolo, who has never advanced past the third round of a Grand Slam other than the French Open. Cerundolo leads their head-to-head 3-1, but this will be their first meeting on an outdoor hard court.
Jasmine Paolini (-137) vs. Iva Jovic
The 18-year-old Jovic is rapidly ascending, but she hasn't been able to solve Paolini so far, as the seventh-seeded Italian beat the American teenager in both of their meetings last year, including a 6-3, 6-3 result in the second round of the U.S. Open. Paolini's edge in experience and rock-solid game make her the favorite in this third matchup, as Jovic has yet to prove she can hang with players of Paolini's caliber despite climbing into the top 30 herself. Jovic is 0-5 against top-20 opponents and has won only one set in those five matches.
Honorable Mention
Yulia Putintseva (-139) vs. Zeynep Sonmez
