This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Both Australian Open men's semifinals will be played Friday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, with the action starting at 10:30 p.m. EST on Thursday night in the United States. An up-and-coming American will look to shock the tennis world against the defending champion while an all-time great continues his quest for history against arguably the best player ever without a Grand Slam title.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Friday's men's semifinal matches.
Australian Open Odds: Djokovic vs. Zverev
Novak Djokovic (-165) vs. Alexander Zverev (+135)
Djokovic has a 24-0 edge in career Grand Slam titles, which trumps Zverev's five-spot edge in the rankings when it comes to picking a favorite in this match. The 37-year-old all-time great is also coming off a convincing 4-6, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4 quarterfinal win over Carlos Alcaraz that suggests Djokovic still has what it takes to compete for major titles, but Zverev has had no shortage of success at big tournaments outside of slams, including numerous victories over Djokovic in big moments. These two have surprisingly played only once since the start of 2022, with Djokovic winning in Cincinnati in 2023 to improve to 8-4 overall and 7-3 on hard courts against Zverev. That advantage includes a 3-0 edge for Djokovic at Grand Slams, though Zverev has gotten closer with each subsequent best-of-five set match between them and forced a fifth set in the semifinals of the 2021 U.S. Open.
Despite the lack of recent matchups, these two are quite familiar with each other's style and strategies. Zverev will look to channel the aggressive approach that helped him beat Djokovic in the semifinals of the 2021 Tokyo Olympics en route to winning the gold medal, while Djokovic will look to break down Zverev's forehand, which has a tendency to get tentative in big moments. Peppering Alcaraz's forehand return paid dividends for Djokovic in his previous match, so he'll likely repeat a similar serving pattern in this match. Djokovic's lack of recent exposure to Zverev's serve could be an early advantage for the German, though the greatest returner of all time shouldn't take too long to adjust. Zverev normally has a lofty first-serve percentage, and while limiting exposure to his relatively attackable second serve will be key, the 6-foot-6 Zverev will also need to take more risks than usual with his first serve to press his advantage in that department. Zverev showed he can sustain near superhuman serving accuracy for an entire best-of-five set match against an elite opponent when he made 85 percent of his first serves in his own four-set Australian Open quarterfinal win over Alcaraz last year, and he'll need to be closer to that level than the pedestrian serving performance he put up in this year's 7-6 (1), 7-6 (0), 2-6, 6-1 quarterfinal win over Tommy Paul. The 12th-seeded American broke Zverev four times but let the world No. 2 off the hook by failing to serve out each of the first two sets, which is a mistake Djokovic almost certainly won't make if given the opportunity.
Australian Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Djokovic def. Zverev 4-6, 7-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4
Australian Open Odds: Sinner vs. Shelton
Jannik Sinner (-2000) vs. Ben Shelton (+1100)
Both of these players are at their best on hard courts, but there's quite a gap in their results on this surface. Sinner has won 19 consecutive hard-court Grand Slam matches since the start of last year's Australian Open, dropping just seven sets during this winning streak. Shelton has more talent than the vast majority of opponents Sinner has faced during this dominant stretch, and the big-serving American actually won their first meeting on hard courts late in 2023 in a third-set tiebreak, but Sinner has responded with four straight-set victories since -- three on hard courts and one on grass at Wimbledon. They have played exactly one tiebreak in each previous encounter, and Shelton's best chance at winning this match is to manage his service games effectively and then step up in the tiebreaks. It would also be beneficial for Shelton to be extremely aggressive, keeping the points short to keep Sinner from building a rhythm.
Sinner will employ his usual strategy of bludgeoning his opponent from the baseline. His only moment of vulnerability at this tournament came in the Round of 16 against Holger Rune, when Sinner seemed to be struggling due to the heat. The elements shouldn't be as much of an issue since this match will take place in the evening, but the grind of two weeks of best-of-five hard-court tennis still takes its toll on the body. Neither player has been pushed to five sets yet in this tournament, though the 21st-seeded Shelton's success has come in large part due to a lucky draw. While the top-seeded Sinner has knocked out two top-15 seeds, Shelton's only seeded opponent on the path to his second career Grand Slam semifinal was No. 16 Lorenzo Musetti, who is better on clay and grass than hard courts.
Australian Open Men's Semifinal Prediction: Sinner def. Shelton 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 7-5
