This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open continues Monday, with the men set to wrap up the third round and the women starting the fourth. The top 32 seeds in both singles draws had first-round byes at this outdoor hard-court ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 event, but every player has taken the court at least once to get to this point. Two of the top players on the men's side should keep right on rolling, while one women's seed rarely loses at this stage of a tournament and is unlikely to buck that trend here. Match odds are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook.
We've gotten a look at how all of the remaining players handle the humid conditions and fast hard courts in Miami, which should help inform assessments of everyone's form as the tournament unfolds. Using players' results thus far in this tournament coupled with their recent form coming in and historical results can help pinpoint enticing options to bet on, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Lucia Bronzetti (+290) vs. Daria Saville
Saville has been playing much better than her ranking indicates over the past month, but it's still surprising to see a player ranked No. 249 listed as such an overwhelming favorite. Considering Saville has lost in straight sets to the likes of Ana Konjuh, Rebecca Peterson and 206th-ranked Asia Muhammad in 2022, she's certainly capable of falling to world No. 102 Bronzetti, especially with all the pressure in this one on the 28-year-old Aussie as the clear favorite. Bronzetti has been playing with house money all tournament as a lucky loser, saving match point against Saville's countrywoman Ajla Tomljanovic in the first round before beating Stefanie Voegele 6-2, 6-1 and receiving a walkover over Anna Kalinskaya.
Honorable Mention:
Alison Riske (+260) vs. Naomi Osaka
Lock It In
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-290) vs. Alex de Minaur
De Minaur's a scrappy defender with great speed, but he doesn't have the offensive weapons to trouble Tsitsipas if the No. 3 seed is on his game. Tsitsiapas has beaten the 25th-seeded Aussie in all seven of their previous meetings, losing just one set in the five times they've faced off since 2019. This is a familiar and comfortable matchup for Tsitsipas, and there's not much reason to expect a different result this time around.
Hubert Hurkacz (-225) vs. Aslan Karatsev
Hurkacz loves it here, as the 2021 Miami Open champion is on a seven-match winning streak at this tournament, with each of the last three victories coming in straight sets. Karatsev has plenty of firepower, and the 29th-seeded Russian got the best of Hurkacz in San Diego last year. Hurkacz responded with a convincing 6-1, 6-3 win over Karatsev at Indian Wells, and the eighth-seeded Pole also topped Karatsev in a challenger event back in 2017, giving him a 2-1 head-to-head edge, all on outdoor hard courts. Ultimately, it's hard to see Karatsev becoming the man to end Hurkacz's winning streak at this tournament.
Honorable Mention:
Carlos Alcaraz (-575) vs. Marin Cilic
Value Bet
Belinda Bencic (-165) vs. Aliaksandra Sasnovich
Bencic has dropped just nine games in her two matches to get to this point, as the No. 22 seed is playing her best tennis of the year in Miami. Sasnovich took out 25th-seeded Daria Kasatkina among her three wins to get to this point, but facing Bencic presents a step up in difficulty of competition for the 60th-ranked, 28-year-old Belarusian. Bencic is tough to take out once she's played her way into a tournament, as she's won her last eight Round-of-16 matches dating back to June of last year. She's also on an 11-match winning streak in the Round of 32.
Lloyd Harris (-170) vs. Yoshihito Nishioka
Harris is having an impressive tournament, as the 44th-ranked South African knocked off both Facundo Bagnis and No. 12 seed Denis Shapovalov in straight sets in the first two rounds. The 2021 US Open quarterfinalist should keep his run going against the 96th-ranked Nishioka. Harris beat Nishioka 6-3, 6-4 on the hard courts of Cincinnati in the lead-up to last year's US Open, and Nishioka's wins in this tournament have been much less convincing, as he needed three sets to get through both Emilio Gomez and Daniel Evans after also playing a three-setter in the final round of qualifying.
Honorable Mention:
Miomir Kecmanovic (-125) vs. Sebastian Korda
