This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for Sunday, May 5
Happy Cinco De Mayo! Let's try to celebrate with a couple winning picks.
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Los Angeles Angels at Cleveland Guardians
If you love great pitching duels, it may pay to avert your eyes on this one. Carlos Carrasco takes the hill for the Guardians and I hate to disparage him at all as he seems like an all-around great guy who made an inspiring return from a life-threatening illness a few years back. He pitched pretty well for the Mets in 2022 but slid big time last season with a 3-8 record and 6.80 ERA in just 90 innings of work. "Cookie" returned to Cleveland as a non-roster invitee this season and cracked the Guardians' rotation almost by default and will stay there at least for now as first Gavin Williams went down, followed by ace Shane Bieber two starts into the season. The homecoming has not gone well as the now 37-year-old carries a 6.59 ERA, although ERA estimators such as xERA (5.01) and SIERA (4.88) suggest he has not pitched quite that badly. Still, Carrasco only averages 90.5 MPH on his fastball and it scored as a negative value pitch pretty much back to his prime years when threw in the mid-90s and got batters out with his changeup and slider. Now they all play poorly.
The Angels counter with Griffin Canning, who carries an even weaker 7.45 ERA, and similar to Carrasco, an xERA of 5.52 and SIERA of 4.96. The difference here is that the Angels, and the fantasy baseball community for that matter, had high hopes for Canning in 2023. The one-time top prospect returned from injury in 2023 and really got it going late in the season, pitching to a 3.49 ERA with a 20.5 percent K-BB rate from Aug. 18 on. It has not at all carried over, as his fastball has dropped a click and like Carrasco, that has rendered his changeup ineffective.
With two shaky starters, offense and relievers should rule the day and Cleveland has a big edge in both spots. The Guardians' deep bullpen carries a 2.60 ERA and league-best 1.05 WHIP, whereas the Angels' 5.18 ERA and and 1.37 WHIP are among the worst in MLB. The offenses look similar on paper as Cleveland's .315 wOBA barely beats out the Angel's .309. But that LA number includes Mike Trout's heroics, but he will unfortunately not play. Neither will Anthony Rendon and Miguel Sano. While that sounds like that might actually help the Angels, Sano leads the league with a 97.0 MPH EV, minimum of 30 PA. Jo Adell has shown major flashes as a post-post-post-hype sleeper breakout, at least I hope he keeps it going as I got him in FAAB in a few spots last weekend. The problem is that Adell has gone from a nice upside shot in the Angels' regular lineup to the guy who along with Taylor Ward may have to carry the offense.
The Guardians lineup looks unimposing on paper, but has clicked for 4.97 runs per game, one of the top marks in the league. And that is despite a mediocre .227/.273/.394 start from Jose Ramirez. Steven Kwan (.353 Avg, .400 wOBA) and Josh Naylor (seven HR, .509 SLG) have picked up the slack, though Kwan might not play today.
The Pick
Cleveland -1.5 Run Line, +150.
Between the starting matchup and warmer May weather, offense should rule the day. The Guardians have paid off well on the run line as moneyline favorites with a 10-8 record and +20.3 percent ROI as per VSiN. At home overall they are 9-5 on the run line, with a league best 31.1 percent ROI.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cincinnati Reds
A few short years ago an Orioles-Reds game would excite few but their hardcore fans. Fast forward to 2024 and we have a matchup of perhaps the two most fun teams in baseball. What a young shortstop battle we have here between Elly De La Cruz and Gunnar Henderson, not to mention the galaxy of young potential stars on both teams. Unfortunately the Reds are down Matt McLain and Noelvi Marte, while Christian Encarnacion-Strand is mired in a horrendous .193/.217/.303 start. The Orioles young stars are all generally on the field in Baltimore or mashing in Norfolk because the big club just has no openings.
The Reds will start Nick Lodolo today, and he has looked filthy in his four starts this season, pitching to 1.88 ERA/2.61 SIERA with 31 Ks in 24 innings. The Orioles counter with Dean Kremer, more of a solid mid-rotation sort. The last player still in Baltimore from the 2018 Manny Machado trade, Kremer carries a 4.19 ERA/3.87 SIERA line with a 15 percent K-BB rate. He is solid but his 13.1 percent Barrel rate could pose more problems in Cincy's Great American (Small)Park than it does in Baltimore. Overall, though, Kremer has fared about the same home and away in his career.
Facing a lefty would seem to be a disadvantage for the Orioles offense as it takes Ryan O'Hearn off the field for a weaker righty bat, often James McCann at catcher with Adley Rutschman sliding over to DH for the day. Thus far the Orioles have handled southpaws just fine with a 137 WRC+ that ranks second in MLB. Rutschman (.552 wOBA), Henderson (.420 wOBA) and Ryan Mountcastle (.420 wOBA) have mashed vs. lefties to lead the way. Jorge Mateo will likely get the start as well today and he has slashed .313/.405/.688 against southpaws.
The Pick
Baltimore Orioles -105
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It is tough to get used to the Orioles as a powerhouse, but here we sit. We get a rare chance today to play them as a moneyline underdog. I said the same thing two weeks ago and, hey, I stumbled on a good outing from Cole Irvin and it worked out. I will go to the well again here on the hope that the O's can scratch out enough against Lodolo and Kremer can keep the ball in the yard.
