This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, May 29
YTD 75-75-1
Prior article 2-3 (-0.47 units)
POWER OUTAGE
Scoring and home runs continue to be down and UNDERS are hitting at a nice clip. Oddsmakers have adjusted totals and we are seeing a lot more 7.5s and 8.0s. I will continue to focus on OVERS on pitcher-recorded outs at 15.5 or 17.5 as opportunities to get value. You can add unearned runs, hits allowed and strikeouts to the pitcher props I am focused on. Until we see a major change in offense with the weather heating up or major line/odds adjustments, I would continue to hammer pitcher props.
WEATHER IMPACT
Always check weather for every game. Look at the temperature and wind. If the temperature/humidity is high, the ball will carry more; if the wind is blowing in or the temperature is cold the ball will stay in the ballpark. As we enter the end of May, the temperatures and humidity are starting to rise, so keep an eye on if scoring starts to see an uptick.
BULLPEN USAGE
You need to check bullpen usage for each team before making your plays. The starting pitching represents about 55 percent of the game, and the bullpen is 45 percent and often overlooked. The quality of the bullpen combined with availability is critical when taking a full game play vs. a F5 inning play.
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES/DOUBLEHEADERS MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky, especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game. I avoid all doubleheaders now as there is just too much of an unknown with how lineups will be constructed unless I am taking an UNDER.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line/Totals strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL/Totals Medium Plays, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs; F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned Runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props, Alt Props)
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Washington Nationals 
at Atlanta Braves 
Finding plus money options is a must in baseball wagering as you need them to offset the majority of picks in which you are laying odds. The Nationals are 14-16 straight up on the road, but they have returned +$573.
This is a nice spot as we get MacKenzie Gore as a road dog against a rookie pitcher in Spencer Schwellenbach. Gore has really come into form this season with a 3.04 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 62:17 K:BB in 53.1 innings.
The Braves are just 5-8 in their last 13 games with an average of 3.5-4.2 (-0.7 run differential). Baseball is all about finding inefficiencies in the market, and oftentimes a better "team" gets priced above the better "pitcher." For reference, the Nationals are actually about EVEN odds in F5 so the value is in the full game.
MLB Picks for Nationals at Braves
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +138)
Chicago Cubs 
at Milwaukee Brewers 
We got rained out on Shota Imanaga last week, so time to fire this one back up. I think I have taken him in this article every time he has started and no reason to stop as the Cubs are 8-1 in his starts.
He has gone OVER 6.5 strikeouts in five straight starts, OVER his recorded outs prop in five out of six, UNDER his walks allowed prop in six out of eight, and UNDER his earned runs allowed in eight out of nine.
The Brewers are hitting just .223 against left-handed pitching in the month of May. But the Cubs are just 3-7 in their last 10 and Shota's last three starts have ended in a no decision. Bryse Wilson is not a good pitcher, but he has a 2.86 ERA and could limit the Cubs offense.
I'm willing to look at Shota's props here and avoid any outcome involving the Cubs.
MLB Picks for Cubs at Brewers
- Shota Imanaga OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (BetRivers -117)
- Shota Imanaga UNDER 1.5 earned runs allowed for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
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New York Yankees 
at Los Angeles Angels 
After having some early command issues, Luis Gil has put up Cy Young-type numbers in May with a 0.59 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and 10.3 K/9. He has gone at least 6.0 innings in those starts with a 35:10 K:BB ratio. Gil has allowed zero, one, zero, one and zero earned runs in his last five starts and has recorded at least 18 outs.
I will ride the hot pitcher again here with Gil against the Angels.
MLB Picks for Yankees at Angels
- Luis Gil UNDER 1.5 earned runs allowed for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Luis Gil OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Nationals ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +138)
- Shota Imanaga OVER 6.5 strikeouts for 1 unit (BetRivers -117)
- Shota Imanaga UNDER 1.5 earned runs allowed for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Luis Gil UNDER 1.5 earned runs allowed for 1 unit (DraftKings +105)
- Luis Gil OVER 17.5 recorded outs for 1 unit (DraftKings -135)
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