This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Best Bets Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Sunday, May 26
The Philadelphia Phillies show us another way to win a baseball game daily. Trailing 3-2 in the top of the ninth inning with two outs and two men on base, Bryce Harper hit an opposite-field three-run homer to complete the rally. The Phillies scored six runs in the ninth inning. The rally started with the bottom of their lineup as Brandon Marsh got on base and scored on an Edmundo Sosa triple. Then Garrett Stubbs, who was filling in for J.T. Realmuto (day off), singled to score Sosa. Leadoff batter Kyle Schwarber and then Bryson Stott got on base ahead of Harper's homer, but they were not done yet. Alec Bohm, who is hitting .317, got on base and scored on a Nick Castellanos single. They are the best offense in MLB for many reasons and last night underscored that fact.
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There have been 221 games since 2004 in which a team scored six or more runs in the ninth inning and those teams have produced a 200-21 record that has averaged a –104 favorite using the moneyline for a 79 percent ROI. There have been 74 games – 44 with the team on the road – since 2004 in which a team was trailing heading into its half of the ninth inning and scored six or more runs to secure the win.
For the Phillies, it marked the 15th game in which they scored six or more runs in the ninth inning and the sixth game in which they trailed entering the ninth inning since 2004. It is interesting to note that one of those games occurred in 2008, which was the season the Phillies won the World Series.
The Best Bets for Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals
The Seattle Mariners will look to end their four-game losing streak when they take on the Washington Nationals in the last game of their three-game inter-league series at Nationals Park and set to start at 1:35 ET. The betting markets price the Mariners as –164 favorites at FanDuel and with a posted total of nine runs.
Who are the Starters in This Game?
The Mariners will send to the hill right-hander Bryan Woo, who is 2-0 in three starts with a 0.57 ERA and a 0.511 WHIP, including 15 strikeouts over 15.2 innings of work. He is coming off a great start, completing six innings allowing two hits with zero walks and seven strikeouts in a 6-0 road win over the New York Yankees.
The Nationals will have their right-hander Patrick Corbin on the bump, and he is 1-5 in 10 starts with a terrible 6.29 ERA and a 1.767 WHIP, including 32 strikeouts over 54 .1 innings of work. He is coming off his worst start of the season, allowing eight earned runs, walking three and striking out three batters in a 10-0 loss to the Minnesota Twins.
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The MLB Betting Algorithm Supporting a Bet on the Mariners
The following MLB betting algorithm has produced a 66-33 record averaging a –152 wager resulting in a 12.5 percent ROI and making a $15,940 profit for the Dime Bettor since 2010. The requirements are:
Bet on road favorites of at least –130 using the moneyline.
The game is a non-divisional matchup.
The favorite has lost its last four games against the host.
Bet on the Seattle Mariners priced as –164 favorites using the moneyline.
The Best Bets for the Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
The Chicago Cubs have been struggling of late, losing three straight and eight of their last 12 games. They will look to get a much-needed road win against their NL Central division-rival St. Louis Cardinals in a game that will be televised nationally on ESPN with the first pitch set for 7 p.m. ET. After a beleaguered start the Cardinals have played well recently, winners of four straight and nine of their last 11 games. The betting markets have the Cardinals priced as –135 favorites with a posted total of 7.5 runs.
Who Are the Starters?
The Cubs will have on the hill Javier Assad, who is 4-0 in 10 starts with a 1.70 ERA and a 1.113 WHIP, including 46 strikeouts spanning 53 innings of work. He is 2-0 in five road starts with a 2.08 ERA and a 1.038 WHIP spanning 26 innings of work and has been consistent all season. His second-to-last start was impressive going on the road and shutting down a potent Atlanta Braves offense by throwing six innings allowing zero ER on just four hits.
For the Cardinals, Sonny Gray will be on the hill, and he is 6-2 in eight starts, compiling a 2.87 ERA and a 1.043 WHIP, including 59 strikeouts spanning 47 innings of work. He has won his last two starts and four of his last five, but allowed 12 earned runs including five home runs over his last three starts for a concerning 6.48 ERA.
The Trends and Angles Supporting a Bet on the Cubs
The Cardinals are 4-13, losing 12 units per unit wagered in home games and facing a starter who allows an average 0.5 or fewer home runs per start in games played over the past two seasons.
The Cardinals are 11-21, losing 22 units per unit wagered when they have been priced between a –125 and –175 home favorite in games played over the past two seasons.
Cardinals' skipper Oliver Marmol is 10-22, losing 14 units per unit wagered in home games and facing a starter who has a 3.20 or lower ERA.
Bet the Cubs priced as a 120-underdog using the moneyline.
