This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets and Expert Picks for
Wednesday, April 17
YTD 25-25 (+0.58 units)
Prior article 3-3 (+1.44 units)
WEEKEND/DAY GAMES MLB BETTING
Lineups can get very tricky especially with day games after night games. I would caution about playing any totals (especially team) before lineups come out on early games. One or two key players out of a lineup can completely change the projection of a game.
MLB Unit Betting Guide (Here is a basic guideline that I use when it comes to betting baseball and knowing what unit value to place on each bet)
- 1 unit (Moneyline/Run Line strongest plays, System Plays)
- 0.75 unit (ML/RL medium plays, Totals, Pitcher Props – Ks, Outs, F5)
- 0.50 unit (Pitcher Props – Earned runs; Hitter Props – TB, HRRBI; Team Totals, F5 Run Line/Totals)
- 0.25 unit (Parlays, HR Props)
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Kansas City Royals 
at Chicago White Sox 
Playing the second game of a doubleheader can be risky, as you do not know the starting lineups or how the bullpen usage will go. But the White Sox are so bad right now, that I want to take every chance I can to go against them.
The moneyline is not in play for me at -170, and with the White Sox's weak lineup, laying -1.5 at -105 on PointsBet is the preferred option.
Both starting pitchers (Michael Wacha and Erick Fedde) are close in stats, but these teams are not. The Royals are 11-6 and 8-2 over their last 10. while the White Sox are 2-14 and 1-9 last 10 (outscored 55-24). Fedde allowed three home runs to the Guardians in his last start, and they are not known for their power prowess. The Royals are one of the hardest-hitting teams in baseball and could continue the long ball trend against the White Sox starter.
MLB Picks for Royals at White Sox
- Royals -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet -105)
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Colorado Rockies 
at Philadelphia Phillies 
I took the Rockies on the run line last week against Kevin Gausman and it paid off. Picking your spots with the Rockies on the road (run line only) will pay off in profits long term. This is another one of those spots as we get Ryan Feltner, who has pitched well in his three starts (1-1, 3.68 ERA, 18 strikeouts, six walks) against Cristopher Sanchez.
The total is only eight runs and the Phillies' offense is not hitting, which makes the +1.5 even more attractive. We do not need the Rockies to win, just not lose by more than two runs. The Phillies have averaged 3.1 - 3.1 in their last 10 games. This has all the makings of a low-scoring run environment which plays to our favor.
MLB Picks for Rockies at Phillies
- Rockies +1.5 for 0.5 unit (BetMGM -110)
Los Angeles Angels 
at Tampa Bay Rays 
Reid Detmers is becoming a go-to pitcher for OVER strikeout props and I will go ahead and "ladder" him today. The ladder means we place additional bets each "rung" up on the strikeout ladder, which expectation is he could exceed his base prop considerably.
Detmers has posted seven, 12 and seven strikeouts in his three starts with a 1.04 ERA and 0.81 WHIP. The Rays do hit lefties pretty well at .240 batting average, but Tropicana Park suppresses offense and they have a 23.9% strikeout rate against left-handers. This Rays lineup has minimal history against Detmers with the exception of Amed Rosario.
MLB Picks for Angels at Rays
- Reid Detmers OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -156)
- Detmers OVER 7+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +132)
- Detmers OVER 8+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +250)
Cleveland Guardians 
at Boston Red Sox 
The starting pitching matchup looks to heavily favor the Red Sox with Tanner Houck against Ben Lively. But this Boston lineup is without Rafael Devers, Tyler O'Neill and Trevor Story. Half of their lineup right now is Triple-A quality. These two teams are headed in opposite directions, with the Red Sox blowing another lead, losing 10-7 in extra innings last night. Their bullpen is running very thin, so Houck may end up in the game longer than he should.
MLB Picks for Guardians at Red Sox
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +112)
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Royals -1.5 for 1 unit (PointsBet -105)
- Rockies +1.5 for 0.5 unit (BetMGM -110)
- Reid Detmers OVER 5.5 strikeouts for 0.5 unit (FanDuel -156)
- Detmers OVER 7+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +132)
- Detmers OVER 8+ strikeouts for 0.25 unit (FanDuel +250)
- Guardians ML for 1 unit (BetRivers +112)
- PARLAY for 0.25 unit KC -1.5 / COL +1.5 / CLE ML for 0.25 unit (DraftKings +668)
