This article is part of our College Baseball Picks series.
College Baseball Best Bets: Saturday, April 20
Florida State losing a game they led 3-1 going into the bottom of the sixth is sickening. The Seminoles do what nobody else did all season: make Chase Burns fail to complete more than five innings, and they can't hold on. That implosion cost me a lot of money last night. Depressed as I am, let's see if we can grab a rebound on Saturday.
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Oklahoma State Cowboys (-145) @ Kansas State Wildcats (+114) | Total: 12.5
Friday night was a slugfest between these two Big 12 squads, one that ultimately saw K-State squeak out a walk-off in the bottom of the 12th. Both teams are firmly in the mix for the top spot in the conference, but OK State is definitely in the better position at the moment. The Big 12 is one giant jumble right now. These matchups usually seem to be a coin flip, which makes it very difficult to find an edge and pick a side, but I believe I have one.
The Cowboy's Brian Holiday has probably been a top-20 pitcher this season, maybe even better. One blow up disaster against Oklahoma in a tornado a couple weeks ago inflated his stats big time. Holiday's very respectable 3.13 ERA and 64 K/9 BB ratio across 60 IP have been a rejuvenation to an OK State pitching staff that was starving for pitching. The JUCO transfer has been a staple in the starting rotation for the Cowboys, dishing seven quality starts out of nine tries. By the way, the start against the Sooners had winds that exceeded 43 MPH, and if you erase that game from his stat line, he's allowed just 13 ER in 57 innings. True road games have been no issue for Holiday has he's given up only two earned in three stats (22 innings). Against a Wildcats lineup that has a few studs, like Kaelen Culpepper (potential '24 first rounder) and Brady Day, Holiday's main task is keeping the base runners to a minimum. Coming into the weekend, the Cats lead all power five schools in steals, and are ninth in the NCAA (89).
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The pitching for Kansas State was always going to be their biggest issue coming into 2024, but I definitely felt it would be better than last season. They've made so many mix and match combos all year that it's hard to properly handicap them. Saturday will feature a reliever in Jackson Wentworth, who has been good this season. It's a 3.24 ERA, and 62 K/9 BB ratio for the redshirt sophomore. He'll see some studs on the Cowboys side of things, like potential '24 first rounder, Carson Benge, and Nolan Schubart (potential '25 first rounder). State has gotten some other producers going like Zach Ehrhard and Lane Forsythe, so it's definitely a tough task.
Heading into the year, I was down on OK State, and to be honest I am still not buying them, but they're better than I thought. Meanwhile, K State was one of my sleepers this year, a team I had in my preseason Omaha roster. Even on the road at a tough opponent, it's hard to pass up on Oklahoma State on a bounce back with one of the best arms in the NCAA going. A short price for Holiday is where I think we need to head on this Saturday.
Pick: OK State ML -145
