This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
MLB Bets Today: MLB Props for Tuesday, April 16
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2024 Regular-Season Betting Record: 3-3 (-0.24 RW Bucks)
2024 Regular-Season Props Betting Record: 1-2 (-1.20 RW Bucks)
We have a plentiful Tuesday slate on tap in MLB, and I'll hone in on three player props for evening games that I think could pay some solid dividends.
Rockies vs Phillies Best Bets
For years, the story with the Rockies' bats has largely been the same – they can hang with anyone when conditions are right at Coors Field and they often go into a shell when on the road. This season hasn't started much differently, with 4-13 Colorado striking out 26.2 percent of the time and posting a .230/.296/.369 slash line, .298 wOBA and -5.9 wRAA on the road over 405 total plate appearances.
The assignment isn't an easy one Tuesday, as southpaw Ranger Suarez takes the hill for Philadelphia. Suarez has gotten his season off to a solid start with a 2-0 record, 2.65 ERA and 0.71 WHIP. He's gone six innings in each of his last two starts and just blanked the Pirates while recording eight Ks in his most recent trip to the mound.
Suarez's strikeout prop sits at 6.5 on Tuesday, and while I'm not completely opposed to it, I'll go with the slightly safer Outs Recorded prop. Colorado has produced a .162 average, .455 OPS and .206 wOBA versus lefties on the road in a small sample of 73 plate appearances thus far, and going back to last season, Suarez has gone at least six innings in 15 of 25 starts.
MLB Picks for Rockies vs Phillies
- Ranger Suarez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-143 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Braves vs Astros Best Bets
We'll swing for fences here, literally, and look to cash in on the sweetest MLB prop of all, the To Hit A HR bet. It's naturally also one of the most elusive, so the high price is warranted. However, if there's a hitter to roll the dice with, it's Austin Riley, who's in a very good matchup to start the game and is arguably a bit overdue to start knocking some balls out of the park.
The prodigious slugger is sitting on just two homers across 70 plate appearances, a far cry from the standard he set over the last three seasons – Riley averaged a HR every 19.2 plate appearances in that span.
Riley's launch angle is actually up this season to a career-high 15.9 percent, and his hard-hit rate per Statcast sits at a career-high 53.2 percent as well. Therefore, he's certainly sporting the metrics that should lead to him clearing the fences more frequently in coming games.
Tuesday might be as good a night as any for that surge to start, considering Astros starter Hunter Brown pitched to a 1.5 HR/9 as a rookie last season, not to mention a 6.56 ERA and 1.57 WHIP at home. The right-hander has also been hit hard thus far this season, allowing nine runs on 11 hits in two-thirds of an inning in his most recent start versus the Royals and five runs on eight hits to the Rangers in his prior outing.
Brown has seen his most frequently thrown pitch to righty bats by far, his four-seam fastball, get blasted for a .500 average and .655 wOBA thus far, while Riley has a .346 average and .396 wOBA against the pitch in same-handed matchups this season.
Given Riley's power and Brown's struggles, this should be a fun prop to sweat Tuesday.
MLB Picks for Braves vs Astros
- Austin Riley To Hit a HR (+420 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
Nationals vs Dodgers Best Bets
In a scenario that is beyond tantalizing, the potent Dodgers lineup gets a crack at Patrick Corbin to start the game Tuesday and does so in the friendly confines of its home park. Naturally, as we're well aware of as MLB bettors, anything can happen on any given night, but we'll go with what should be a reasonably high-percentage bet here.
Mookie Betts has opened the season in MVP-caliber fashion, posting a .347 average and 1.115 OPS across his first 91 plate appearances. The talented veteran owns a .296 average and .386 wOBA against left-handed pitching specifically, a split in which he's also accrued 13 total bases in 31 plate appearances.
Betts is already averaging an abundant 2.6 total bases per game, while Corbin has pitched to a .352 BAA and .387 wOBA against right-handed hitters thus far. The embattled southpaw has surrendered 29 total bases to the 56 right-handed hitters he's encountered overall, and he has a 9.90 ERA and .419 BAA over the 10 road innings he's logged thus far.
Betts also has a .300 career average against Corbin in 10 plate appearances, with two of his three hits in the sample being a double and a home run. Given Nationals relievers have also already allowed 10 doubles and four homers this season, I like Betts' chances of delivering in this spot.
MLB Picks for Nationals vs Dodgers
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
MLB Best Bets Today Recap
- Ranger Suarez Over 17.5 Outs Recorded (-143 on Caesars Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Austin Riley To Hit a HR (+420 on FanDuel Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
- Mookie Betts Over 1.5 Total Bases (-115 on Bet365 Sportsbook) for 1 RW Buck
