This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday was light for baseball, but Friday is business as usual. We have 13 games starting at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. Your DFS options are abundant, but I'm here to help you drill down on a few names. Here are my lineup recommendations.
Pitching
Corbin Burnes, MIL vs. KC ($9,200): Burnes' first couple starts were rough, but he's proven himself an elite pitcher so it isn't surprising he's turned things around. Over his last five starts he has a 2.08 ERA. His strikeouts are still way down, but I expect that to change. The Royals have picked it up offensively, but they are still fighting to keep their team OBP above .300.
Drew Smyly, CHC at MIN ($9,100): This is looking like a pitching duel, with Smyly facing Sonny Gray. However, the matchup definitely looks better for Smyly. The Twins are in the bottom 10 in runs scored, and they tend to use a lot of lefties. Smyly has a 3.05 ERA, but he's also a southpaw. That makes this matchup in his favor.
Martin Perez, TEX at OAK ($8,300): This would be a more-confident recommendation if Perez hadn't just struggled in his last start. Even so, he still has a 3.86 ERA after having a 2.89 ERA last season. Mostly, I like this matchup. The A's have a pitcher-friendly ballpark, and they also rank in the bottom five in runs scored.
Top Targets
After having 14 homers and 21 stolen bases last year, Thairo Estrada ($5,500) seems primed to put up a 25/25 season in 2023. He has six homers and 10 swiped bags, and he's slashed .329/.382/.507 as well. Ryne Nelson had a 1.47 ERA in three starts in 2022, but a 3.76 FIP. Now, he has a 4.72 FIP and has struck out a mere 5.50 batters per nine innings.
Let Rafael Devers ($5,400) face a righty at home, and he'll excel. Since 2021 he has a .946 OPS against right handers and a .902 OPS at home. Adam Wainwright is a righty, and while it was impressive how much he pitched in his age-40 season, his 3.71 ERA was not impressive. He's made one start in MLB this year, and he allowed four runs in five innings.
Bargain Bats
There are still holes in the approach of Josh Jung ($3,900), but he has power, and he has crushed lefties. In his career he has an 1.005 OPS versus southpaws. Ken Waldichuk is a southpaw, and in his career righties have hit .300 against him. Although, though his ballpark tends to be friendly to pitchers, he has allowed 2.1 homers per nine innings at home with Oakland.
Lefty Luis Garcia ($3,300) is still only 22, and he's a career .264 hitter with doubles power. He's also performed admirably at home, as since 2021 he has a .760 OPS at home. Tylor Megill has a 5.04 FIP this year, and he's struggled versus left-handed pitchers in his career. Southpaws have hit .303 against him in the majors.
Stacks to Consider
Phillies at Rockies (Austin Gomber): Trea Turner ($5,800), J.T. Realmuto ($5,400), Nick Castellanos ($5,200)
Gomber has a career 4.84 ERA, and this year he's striking out fewer batters and allowing more home runs than ever. Also, this game is at Coors Field. It's a great day to be stacking Phillies, though Gomber is a southpaw. Thus, I am stacking three right-handed Phillies.
Turner hasn't quite delivered yet, but he has four home runs and four swiped bags, so he's still making an impact in ways DFS players like. He's a career .300 hitter who has batted .261, so I expect things to pick up. Realmuto is a catcher with a career .276 average, and what's maybe the most impressive thing about him is the work he does on the basepaths. This is a catcher with three triples and five stolen bases in 2023. Castellanos resembles the guy the Phillies wanted now after a tough 2022. He's slashed .322/.370/.524 with five homers, and since 2021 he's slugged .502 against lefties.
Astros at White Sox (Michael Kopech): Yordan Alvarez ($6,000), Kyle Tucker ($5,300), Jose Abreu ($2,900)
Kopech is the poster child for "A big fastball isn't going to cut it, dude." His heater may average 95.6 miles per hour, but Kopech has a 7.53 FIP. His control has been disastrous – he's walked 5.26 batters per nine innings – and he's allowed 2.87 home runs per nine as well. The only tricky thing is finding a third bat for this stack from the Astros. I decided to take a gamble on a traditionally steady hand to go with the two easy calls.
Just as a pure hitter, Alvarez is as good as anybody. He has a .946 OPS with eight homers, and that's actually below his career .971 OPS, so the Cuban slugger is arguably underachieving. Tucker has hit exactly 30 home runs in each of his last two seasons, with 25 stolen bases added in 2022. This year he has six homers and five swiped bags. Additionally, since 2021 he has an .877 OPS versus righties. Abreu has struggled after leaving Chicago, but this is a chance to show out against his former squad. In the three seasons prior to this one, he slashed .289/.366/.489, so it's not like he's trading off the distant past at this point.
Orioles vs. Pirates (Johan Oviedo): Cedric Mullins ($5,100), Adley Rutschman ($4,800), Austin Hays ($4,200)
Oviedo hasn't allowed a home run since the season opener (when he gave up three), and yet he still has a 5.59 ERA through seven starts. He's posted a 12.08 ERA over his last three starts even without giving up the long ball. Sure, maybe Oviedo doesn't allow many homers, but he does allow a lot of hits, and runs, and that's good for the Orioles.
Mullins has a .351 OBP, and he's stolen 12 bases without being caught once yet. While he's not a power hitter typically, the lefty has slugged .483 versus righties since 2021. Also, Oviedo has allowed lefties to hit .310 against him this year. Rutschman is a switch hitter, but he's largely scuffled versus lefties while he's posted an .880 OPS against righties. Plus, he has an .862 OPS at home in his career as well. Hays is off to a hot start, as he's slashed .304/.352/.504. Plus, since 2021 he's managed an .809 OPS at home.
