This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Monday's seven-game main slate features three games that are seven innings long due to the fact that they are the first legs of doubleheaders. For those unfamiliar, all scoring is the same for seven-inning contests, meaning a pitcher who throws seven innings gets credit for a complete game. This makes hurlers from these games incredibly desirable, which is why I have recommended one from each of the three contests.
Pitching
Trevor Bauer, CIN vs. PIT ($10,800): The price is a little steep for my liking, but passing on Bauer in a shortened game seems incredibly difficult, particularly on a seven-game slate. Bauer has had a phenomenal 2020 season and has shown no signs of slowing down, having tallied a 1.74 ERA and a 36 percent strikeout rate in eight starts. There are many stats I could cite to support this play, but the strongest piece of evidence may be that the Pirates hold the second-lowest RAA in the league against the fastball, while Bauer's 14.9 RAA is the best such mark in the league by a wide margin.
Jesus Luzardo, OAK at SEA ($8,300): Luzardo's combination of strikeouts, grounders, and control makes him a safe option in any number of matchups. He'll be much more than that Monday, however, when he takes the mound against a Seattle team that ranks dead last in the league against left-handed pitching according wOBA. It should also be noted that The Mariners hit the ball on the ground at a 44 percent clip.
Kwang-Hyun Kim, STL at MIL ($7,000): Those who intend to roster Bauer need to find spots to save money and Kim looks to be a fantastic value play after missing the last two weeks with a chest injury. The left-hander was sensational prior to the injury, allowing just four runs (two earned) in 21 innings. The lack of strikeouts from Kim may cause some to pump the breaks, but his 44 percent groundball rate should help stifle a Brewers' team that has tallied a top-10 groundball rate this year.
Top Hitters
Freddie Freeman, ATL at BAL ($5,500): Freeman has absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching this season, as we can see from the .357 ISO and .483(!) wOBA he has tallied in 126 at-bats. Jorge Lopez has notched his share of strikeouts against lefty hitters in 2020 but remains a target due to the 2.3 HR/9 rate he carries against his opposite hand in 12 frames.
Nelson Cruz, CWS vs. MIN ($5,300): Cruz has lit left-handed pitchers on fire during the shortened season, but that doesn't mean we should forget about him against righties, as he has logged a .282 ISO against same-handed opposition in 110 at-bats. Dylan Cease has done well to prevent runs in 2020, but a look under the hood tells us that the bottom can drop out at any time, as he owns a 5.86 xFIP against right-handed hitters.
Brad Miller, STL at MIL ($4,900): There isn't much left-handed pop on the Cardinals, but you'll find plenty of power in Miller's bat. The 30-year-old has logged a .250 ISO and .384 wOBA against righty pitching in 88 at-bats. Josh Lindblom has expertly dealt with righty hitters this year but has been pounded by his opposite hand, having allowed a .662 slugging percentage in 17 frames.
Best Values
Eugenio Suarez, CIN vs. PIT ($4,400): Cody Ponce has somehow kept his ERA below 4.00 despite being knocked around by both sides of the platoon. He will take the mound Monday having allowed a .571 slugging percentage to righty hitters in 7.1 innings. Suarez recovered from a slow start and is now tied for the fifth-most homers in the National League with 13. He has notched a .254 ISO against same-handed hurlers in 118 at-bats.
Renato Nunez, BAL vs. ATL ($3,900): Touki Toussaint has sprinkled in the occasional decent outing but has really struggled in 2020 overall, posting an ERA approaching 8.00 in 21.2 frames. Meanwhile, Nunez has posted a reverse split this season, logging a .259 ISO and .348 wOBA against right-handed pitching in 135 at-bats.
Adam Haseley, PHI at MIA ($2,000): It's not often we find a minimum-salary hitter that actually produces, but that's just what we have in Haseley, who has logged a .399 wOBA in his 22 at-bats against right-handed pitching this month. The .430 slugging percentage Pablo Lopez has allowed to lefty hitters may not seem like much of an opportunity, but the amount of value that exists here makes Haseley an incredibly attractive punt option on a slate that will force us to pay a premium for its best matchups.
Stacks to Consider
Reds against Cody Ponce: Nick Castellanos ($4,600) Eugenio Suarez ($4,400) Shogo Akiyama ($2,200)
Ponce has looked so shaky that it seems only right that we take a crack at him with as many productive hitters as possible. Castellanos is the prize here, having tallied a .301 ISO against right-handed hitters, but in Akiyama, we have another incredibly cheap bat who has been productive of late (.384 wOBA in 26 at-bats this month).
Braves against Jorge Lopez: Freddie Freeman ($5,300) Nick Markakis ($4,800) Ozzie Albies ($4,400)
Freeman is the heavy-hitter in this stack to be sure, but DFS players would be wise not to overlook Albies as he rounds into form after spending more than a month on the injured list. While he had been scuffling prior to hurting his wrist, it must be noted that he has put up at least 20 DraftKings points in three of five games since his return.
