This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Selecting a pitcher could prove difficult on Saturday's nine-game evening slate, as many of the top options are facing off against high-powered offenses. However, we can use advanced metrics to try and find an advantage that may not be immediately apparent.
Pitchers
Julio Urias ($9,700) will head into the matchup against the Giants armed with the second-most effective curveball in the league according to RAA (18.6). This should help blunt a normally sharp San Francisco offense who are bottom-10 team against the bender this season. It should also be noted that Urias was nearly unhittable in August with a 1.38 ERA over 26 innings.
Joe Musgrove ($8,900) is another hurler facing a powerful lineup in the Astros, but it's hard to not consider him at a salary which is the lowest it's been in five outings. Musgrove boasts the best curveball in the league among qualified pitchers and finished August with a 2.53 ERA from 32 frames.
Kwang Hyun Kim's ($7,400) numbers may not blow anyone away, but the 33-year-old has held opposing hitters to wOBAs below .250 in each of the last three months. He also features a strong slider (9.5 RAA), which should come in handy against a Brewers offense that ranks last against the pitch in terms of effectiveness.
Top Hitters
Marco Gonzales has been hit hard by righties this season by allowing a .527 slugging percentage and a .362 wOBA across 75.2 innings. Meanwhile, Ketel Marte ($5,400) has been unconscious from the right side of the plate considering his .347 ISO and .512 wOBA in 75 at-bats.
Jose Abreu's ($5,200) power numbers have dipped a bit against same-handed opposition, but he's compensated by hammering southpaws to the tune of a .325 ISO over 120 at-bats. Daniel Lynch looks like a pitcher to target regardless of what kind of metrics you want to use based on a .461 slugging percentage and 5.11 xFIP against righties from 41 frames.
Trea Turner ($5,100) is destroying left-handed pitchers for the second consecutive season with a .279 ISO and a .465 wOBA across 67 at-bats. Sammy Long was expected to go back to the bullpen after Anthony DeSclafani returned from the IL, but a rash of unexpected events have left the Giants short on arms and that could force the 26-year-old back into a starter's role. Of note, Long has allowed a .527 slugging percentage against righty hitters this year.
Bargain Bats
Humberto Castellanos scuffled at Triple-A Reno this year having given up a 2.2 HR/9 rate in 57.2 innings. That and a 5.04 xFIP should tell us his 2.14 ERA across 21 innings with the big club is somewhat of a mirage. The Mariners don't offer many quality value options, but Abraham Toro ($3,900) fits the bill with a .200 ISO against righties in 165 at-bats.
Tyler Mahle represents the top pitcher on the board today despite allowing a .538 slugging percentage to opposing hitters at home across 63 innings. Akil Baddoo's ($3,700) offense has ebbed and flowed in 2021, but he remains a problem for righties having logged a .257 ISO and .370 wOBA against his opposite hand over 249 at-bats.
Justin Upton's ($2,500) struggles could relegate him to a platoon situation for the final month of the year, but that would be just fine for our purposes considering his .258 ISO against lefty pitchers from 89 at-bats. Kolby Allard has allowed homers to both right and left-handed bats this season, resulting in a 1.95 HR/9 rate in 106 innings.
Stacks to Consider
White Sox against Daniel Lynch: Jose Abreu ($5,200), Luis Robert ($4,700), Cesar Hernandez ($3,600)
The White Sox are teeming with power from the right side and provide several quality options to consider in our stack. This is even true of unexpected sources, as Hernandez has produced a .273 ISO against southpaws this year despite only hitting .205 against them over 161 at-bats.
