This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Thursday is a light day for MLB. Most of the games are in the evening at least. That gives you six games worth of players to choose from. With the first pitch at 7:05 p.m. ET, here are my recommendations for your DFS squads.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. CIN ($10,000): Like last season, Nola has a better FIP than his ERA. This time, though, his FIP is 2.76 compared to a 3.25 ERA, both strong numbers. While Nola has been better on the road, the last two seasons he was better at home in the same ballpark. The Reds are just above the bottom 10 in runs scored, but at the deadline they dealt Brandon Drury, who had been their best hitter.
Kevin Gausman, TOR at BOS ($9,600): In modern baseball, we can overlook Gausman's 9-9 record to his 2.05 FIP and his 6.77 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He's been one of the best pitchers in baseball all in all. Though the Red Sox are above average in runs scored, Gausman's numbers, including his 1.65 road ERA, are still enough for me.
Jameson Taillon, NYY at OAK ($7,500): Taillon's situation is inverse of Gausman's. The Yankees pitcher has a 4.00 ERA, but an 11-4 record thanks to his offensive support. The Athletics are 29th in runs scored and team OPS, and they have a pitcher-friendly ballpark that could help Taillon out.
Top Targets
Catchers with offensive upside are rare, so J.T. Realmuto ($5,400) with his .273 average, 14 home runs, and 15 stolen bases has a lot of positional value. Plus, he has a .962 OPS over the last three weeks. Justin Dunn has only made three starts this season, but he has an 8.51 FIP and has allowed 3.38 home runs per nine innings.
Jose Abreu ($4,000) has a keen eye and a steady bat, as he's hit .311 with a .388 OBP. This year for some reason he's struggled at home, but on the road he has a .943 OPS. In a way, Jordan Lyles has been consistent. In each of the last two seasons he's allowed righties to hit .291 against him. That plays into Abreu's hands.
Bargain Bats
At home, Josh Donaldson ($3,900) has been struggling, but he has an .817 OPS. James Kaprielian has a 5.13 FIP, and he hasn't been able to take advantage of Oakland's pitcher-friendly ballpark either. He has a 4.57 ERA at home and has allowed 1.7 home runs per nine innings there.
The Orioles recently called up Terrin Vavra ($2,300) and placed him in as designated hitter. It's been only a smattering of games, but he's hit .262 with a .353 OBP. He's also a lefty, and I wanted a southpaw against Lance Lynn. Lynn has a 6.39 ERA on the road, and his .280 average versus lefties is a big part of that.
Stacks to Consider
Blue Jays at Red Sox (Kutter Crawford): Vladimir Guerrero ($5,600), George Springer ($5,300), Lourdes Gurriel ($4,400)
For a second there, it seemed like Crawford might be finding his footing in MLB and serve as a reliable starter for the Red Sox…then he went out and posted a 9.82 ERA over his last three starts. Now, he has a 5.14 ERA on the season, and now I am happy to target him for stacks. How quickly things change.
Sure, Vladito doesn't have an 1.002 OPS like he did last season, but he's slashed .282/.350/.505 with 26 home runs. On top of that, he's slugged .519 versus righties. Springer has 18 home runs and 10 stolen bases, and recently he's been given a chance to DH, which given his propensity to get hurt is probably a good thing. He also has an 1.285 OPS over the last three weeks. Gurriel has a .297 average this year and a career .286 average. Also, since 2020 he has an .807 OPS versus righties and an .810 OPS on the road.
Astros vs. Twins (Chris Archer): Yordan Alvarez ($5,500), Alex Bregman ($4,900), Kyle Tucker ($4,800)
Archer has a 4.26 FIP this season, in line with his 4.24 ERA on the road. He has enjoyed his new home ballpark, which is suppressing home runs, but on the road he's allowed 1.6 homers per nine innings. Archer is on the road against a lineup with a lot of power. It should not go well.
Talking about power, Alvarez has slugged .639 against righties this year. That's helped him hit 31 homers, 22 of which have come against right-handed pitchers. Bregman is white hot, posting an 1.198 OPS over the last 21 days. All year he's been stellar at home, where he has an 1.006 OPS. Tucker is a mix of power and base running, notch 22 homers and 19 stolen bases. He also has an .889 OPS versus righties.
