DraftKings MLB: Tuesday Breakdown

Written by

Published on October 17, 2023

We're back to one game on Tuesday, as first pitch of Game 2 of the NLCS is set for 8:07 pm ET. There's the customary showdown slate being offered, as well as a two-game slate that overlaps between Tuesday and Wednesday. The focus of this article will be on the showdown contest.

As a very brief explanation for those new to showdown slates, there are no position designations. Instead, managers have $50,000 to fill six roster spots ($8,333 per spot). One of those slots is a "Captain", who scores 1.5X points and also comes at an increased price point.

Pitchers

The pricing is immediately interesting when looking at the starting pitchers. Merrill Kelly ($17,100 captain/ $11,400 Util) has the higher price tag despite the Phillies having an implied winning percentage of 58.3 percent based on the odds found on DK Sportsbook. His stats relative to Aaron Nola ($16,800/$11,200) are nearly identical, though Nola has a home run problem while Kelly has inferior control. In addition to pitching for the favored team, Nola also has a strong track record when pitching at home this season (28.6 K%, 3.29 ERA). Similarly, Kelly has seen his effectiveness fall when on the road (22.7 K%, 4.07 ERA).

Rostering Nola in the captain slot makes a lot of sense. That would leave an average of $6,640 per spot for the five utility slots.

Lineups

Even though Nola has performed better at home as compared to the road, he's still allowed 1.7 HR/9 to lefties when on the mound at Citizens Bank Park. That lays out some clear bats to target in the Arizona lineup. Corbin Carroll ($14,400/$9,600) is the obvious option, as he also serves as Arizona's leadoff hitter. Ketel Marte ($13,200/$8,800) could be another player to capitalize at a slightly more palatable price.

My preferable roster build would be to pay down for Arizona bats to save for the better 2hitters on the opposite side of this game. For those considering that path, Geraldo Perdomo ($5,600 Util) and Alek Thomas ($4,800) are both values and will increase the average budget remaining per roster spot.

Kelly has less drastic splits by handedness, so when considering Phillies hitters, I'd primarily focus on skill (duh) and lineup position. The most skilled players are obvious, with Kyle Schwarber ($12,600, $8,400), Bryce Harper ($13,800, $9,200) and Nick Castellanos ($12,300/$8,200) leading the way. However, only one of those is likely rosterable for those who put a pitcher in the captain slot.

That leads us to Alec Bohm ($7,200) and Bryson Stott ($7,400), who have hit fourth and fifth, respectively, in the Phillies lineup this postseason. Rostering Nola in the Captain slot with Perdomo, Thomas, Bohm and Stott would leave the budget to complete a Phillies stack with Castellanos. The alternative build would be to roster Harper (or another star Phillies bat) in the captain slot, while rostering Nola as a Util and filling the remaining roster spots with Perdomo, Thomas, Bohm and Stott.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Dan Marcus plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: marcusd91 DraftKings: dmarcus87.