This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.
Another jam-packed 11-game main slate leaves us with basically no mid-range to speak of on the pitching side, which is why I've spotlighted a wildcard option for those looking to go top shelf. Exorbitant salaries, one quality pitcher, and a mediocre offense has prevented me from spotlighting a Colorado home game, but it's always a good idea to try to work a few bats into Coors where feasible.
Pitching
Aaron Civale, CLE at PIT, ($9,800): The presence of Jacob deGrom and Gerrit Cole above him may take some attention off of Civale, but he looks to be in a great spot against the Pirates. The right-hander turned in an unexpected clunker in his last outing against the Tigers, but Civale had registered at least 20.2 DraftKings points in his previous three starts. It should also be noted that the Pirates hold the worst RAA in the league against the cutter, a pitch Civale throws nearly 30 percent of the time.
Chris Paddack, SD vs. TEX ($7,700): Paddack has had a fairly tough schedule in 2020. The 24-year-old has faced the Dodgers (twice), the Giants, and the D-Backs in his four starts. He will enter his most forgiving matchup to date On Wednesday against the Rangers, a team that has logged a bottom-5 wOBA against right-handed pitchers this year. While the numbers may not look fantastic for Paddack so far, it's worth pointing out that the lowest score he posted in his three previous outings was 14.6, and only one of those came via the benefit of a win.
Dane Dunning, CWS vs. DET ($4,500): It seems all but a certainty that Dunning will make his first major league start Wednesday after manager Rick Hahn said he liked the matchup between Dunning and Detroit hurler Casey Mize. Dunning last pitched at Double-A Birmingham in 2018, posting a 2.76 ERA to go along with a 26 percent strikeout rate and 49 percent groundball rate in 62 innings. This lines up perfectly for success against the Tigers, as they have notched a 30 percent strikeout rate against right-handed pitching while putting the ball on the ground at a 45 percent clip. The catch here is that Dunning hasn't thrown the ball since 2018 due to Tommy John surgery, making it difficult to determine just how many pitches he will throw. Hahn said the organization wouldn't bring Dunning here unless they thought he was ready, which could make him an interesting GPP gamble.
Top Hitters
Juan Soto, WAS at ATL ($5,700): How good has Soto been lately? The 21-year-old has put up double-digit points in six consecutive games (and in seven of his last 10). This translates to Soto holding an ungodly .955 slugging percentage in 44 at-bats. Meanwhile, Kyle Wright has walked more batters than he has struck out this season, having also allowed a .567 slugging percentage against left-handed hitters.
Nelson Cruz, MIN vs. MIL ($5,300): It's impossible to overstate how good Cruz has been in his age-40 season. Minnesota's designated hitter has logged an impressive .231 ISO overall in 2020, but the number shoots up to .765 when we isolate his 17 at-bats against left-handed pitching. This should set Cruz up nicely against Brett Anderson, who has allowed a .475 slugging percentage against his opposite hand in 9.2 frames.
Corey Seager, LAD at SEA ($5,000): DFS players may be a bit shy about locking in a shortstop at this price, but Seager has more than justified his placement, tallying a .388 ISO and .478 wOBA in 49 at-bats against right-handed pitching. Taijuan Walker has allowed a .457 slugging percentage to lefty hitters this year, but the 5.95 xFIP he will carry into the contest suggests that number could be about to rise.
Best Values
Dansby Swanson, ATL vs. WAS ($4,400): Opposing starter Erick Fedde has kept a reverse split in 2020, handling lefties while allowing a .533 slugging percentage to right-handed hitters. Swanson started fast once again this season and currently holds a .376 wOBA to go along with a 37 percent hard contact rate against same-handed hurlers in 74 at-bats.
Tommy La Stella, LAA at SF ($3,800): Johnny Cueto is another pitcher whose xFIP tells us that brighter pastures are ahead for hitters. This is true for both righties and lefties, as Cueto currently holds a 5.20 xFIP against righty hitters in 15.2 frames. La Stella may not be known for his power, but he has hit the ground running against right-handed pitchers, logging a .204 ISO and .397 wOBA in 49 at-bats.
Trent Grisham, SD vs TEX ($3,100): Grisham tends to get lost in the mix with all the talent in San Diego, but the rookie has feasted on right-handed pitching this season, as evidenced by the .281 ISO and .418 wOBA he has logged in 64 at-bats. Lance Lynn's 1.91 ERA makes him a hard pitcher to target for offense, but the 4.41 xFIP he has logged to righty hitters should allow us to sneak a cheap bat or two into our lineups.
Stacks to Consider
Nationals against Kyle Wright: Juan Soto, ($5,700) Trea Turner, ($4,900) Adam Eaton, ($3,000)
Wright may have had better luck preventing runs against righties so far this year, but the 5.60 xFIP he has kept against them makes it a pretty safe bet that luck is about to run out. Eaton works as the value play here despite his lack of power due to the .349 wOBA and 40 percent hard contact rate he has logged against right-handed pitchers.
Braves against Erick Fedde: Freddie Freeman: ($5,300) Dansby Swanson, ($4,400) Marcell Ozuna, ($4,400)
It's not often we have two opposing starting pitchers who have delivered more walks than strikeouts, but that will be the case in Atlanta on Wednesday night. Fedde has done a good job stifling lefty hitters this season, but that pesky xFIP rears its head once again to show a 5.28 against right-handed hitters in eight innings.
