MLB Picks Today: Expert MLB Picks for
Monday, July 7
After an exciting holiday weekend in Major League Baseball, it's back to the grind of a full work week. We have a total of 10 games on the schedule for Monday, starting on FS1 at 6:40 p.m. ET with the Tampa Bay Rays and Detroit Tigers. The slate finishes up on the west coast with the Arizona Diamondbacks and San Diego Padres, or Philadelphia Phillies and San Francisco Giants, battling on MLB Network at 9:40 p.m. ET. Let's get started building our bankroll for the second half and beyond!
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Guardians vs Astros: Expert Betting Tips and Analysis
The Cleveland Guardians (40-48) are skidding hard. They'll look to change their luck on the road against the Houston Astros (55-35) at 8:10 p.m. ET.
The Guardians have dropped 10 consecutive games, quickly falling out of contention in the American League Central Division. They're coming off a three-game sweep at the hands of the Detroit Tigers, who have pulled away from the pack. To make matters worse, Cleveland's pitching had been pretty good lately, allowing a total of four runs in three losses from July 3-5 before a 7-2 loss against LHP Tarik Skubal and the Tigers on Sunday.
Cleveland's offense has been horrific lately, totaling 15 runs in the 10-game losing streak. And the Guardians scored six runs in a loss to the St. Louis Cardinals June 28, and four runs on the road against the Chicago Cubs July 2. Cleveland has been shut out five times in the 10-game skid, while scoring two or fewer runs in eight of the outings.
With that pathetic run on offense, coupled with a handful of spoiled decent pitching performances, it's no surprise the Under has been a frequent occurrence. The Under is 3-1 in the past four games for Cleveland, 7-3 in the past 10 outings, and 14-5 in the past 19 contests dating back to June 15 in Seattle.
These teams met in Cleveland June 6-8, prior to the long slide, but the results weren't much better for the Guardians. Houston picked up a pair of wins to take the three-game series, outscoring Cleveland 11-9 as the Under cashed in two of the meetings.
The Astros are coming off a three-game sweep of the Los Angeles Dodgers on the road, including a 5-1 win in Sunday's game. Houston outscored L.A. 29-6 in the convincing sweep, while skewed a bit by an 18-1 rout in Friday's interleague series opener.
Houston has won six of the past seven games, while cashing the Over in three of the past four outings. They are also 11-2 in their previous 13 outings since June 22.
It's actually a bit surprising Houston isn't favored by way more. Roll with the Astros as moderate favorites, and go rather aggressively, as long as the number stays under -180. We'll also go with the Under, based on the trends for Cleveland.
MLB Best Bets for Guardians vs Astros:
- Astros ML (-160 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
- Under 7.5 Runs (-120 at Bet365 Sportsbook)
Rangers vs Angels: Monday's Series Opener Insights
The Rangers (44-46) and Angels (43-46) renew acquaintances in Anaheim at 9:38 p.m. ET.
Texas turns to RHP Jacob deGrom (9-2, 2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP) to get the job done in the series opener. He'll be opposed by Angels LHP Yusei Kikuchi (3-6, 2.81 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) across 18 starts and 102 1/3 IP.
DeGrom has been cooking lately, posting six consecutive quality starts, allowing just seven total earned runs in 38 IP dating back to June 1. He has won five of those starts, as he is starting to make some noise in the Cy Young futures market.
Kikuchi has a sparkling ERA, but a lack of offensive support has held him back. He is tied for 24th in the majors with 106 strikeouts across 102.1 IP, or a 9.3 K/9 ratio.
The Rangers are just 6-14 against left-handed starting pitching, so that's something to watch. Texas is also just 9-14 inside the division.
The Halos actually have a much better record inside the division, going 11-10 against the AL West, while going 20-20 at home, while the Rangers are 18-27 away from the Metroplex.
Texas dropped two of three games in San Diego, and it is just 3-4 in the past seven games. L.A. was swept in a three-game series in Toronto, and then flew back to Southern California, arriving at 11:07 p.m. PDT.
The Under has cashed in four in a row for the Angels, and you couldn't blame them if they're a bit sluggish after a cross-country flight, especially when trying to catch up against deGrom's arsenal of pitches. Texas has won eight in a row in the series back to Sept. 7, 2024.
The Rangers swept the Angels April 15-17, while the Under cashed in all three meetings, and the total has gone low at a 4-1-1 clip in the past six in the series.
Back the Rangers on the road as moderate favorites, and let's go low on this matchup, too.
MLB Best Bets for Rangers vs Angels:
- Rangers ML (-150 at Caesars Sportsbook)
- Under 7.5 Runs (-105 at ESPN Bet Sportsbook)
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Best MLB Parlays Today
4-Leg MLB Giant Parlay (+764 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Astros ML (-162) vs. Guardians
- Under 7.5 (-124) - Astros vs. Guardians
- Under 7.5 (-114) - Rangers at Angels
- Rangers ML (-154) at Angels
2-Leg MLB Sides Parlay (+166 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Astros ML (-162) vs. Guardians
- Rangers ML (-154) at Angels
2-Leg MLB Totals Parlay (+239 at FanDuel Sportsbook)
- Under 7.5 (-124) - Astros vs. Guardians
- Under 7.5 (-114) - Rangers at Angels
