This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.
We have a mid-sized six-game main slate on tap Thursday night, with first pitches set for 6:40pm EDT. There are a pair of big names at top of the pitcher pool in Gerrit Cole and Sonny Gray, while Sandy Alcantara is a cheaper option who offers some nice upside relative to salary. There are also several other questionable arms in action, including the struggling Madison Bumgarner, which could give us a few spots to attack with our bats.
There are no games with a higher projected total than 9.5 runs as of early Thursday morning, but four clubs do have projected team totals of over five runs. Therefore, we should be able to find some one-off bats and teams as a whole in favorable scenarios that could pay off nicely in either cash games or tournaments.
Pitchers
Sonny Gray, CIN at CHC ($10,100): Gray has historically enjoyed plenty of success against the Cubs, having flummoxed their current bats to the tune of a collective .116/.168/.233 slash line and 28 strikeouts over 95 total at-bats. The right-hander is already enjoying a strong season with a 5-2 mark, 3.19 ERA, 11.2 percent swinging strike rate and a career-best 31.6 percent strikeout rate. Although he did get blown up in his last start by the Cardinals – his only poor outing of the campaign – he's already posted a quality start against Chicago this season that included a season-high 11 strikeouts back on July 29. With an average of 37.5 FD points per start this season despite his aforementioned stumble, Gray is worth the five-figure investment against a Cubs team averaging the second-fewest runs per home game (3.6) in all of baseball.
Sandy Alcantara, MIA vs. PHI ($9,200): Alcantara is starting to realize some of his considerable potential this season on a better-than-expected Marlins squad. The right-hander has a pair of quality starts in his first three trips to the mound, and he sports a 12.1 percent swinging strike rate and 24.3 percent strikeout rate. Alcantara already held the Phillies to one earned run on three hits over 6.2 innings in a seven-strikeout performance Opening Day, and Philadelphia has a pedestrian .311 wOBA and -4.1 wRAA against right-handed pitching over the last two weeks of play.
Adbert Alzolay, CHC vs. CIN ($5,700): Alzolay is likely best suited as a tournament play, as the talented but somewhat inconsistent right-hander is still getting his legs under him in the majors. Alzolay allowed a couple of earned runs on two hits and five walks over just 2.2 innings against the Cardinals in his last start, but he'll have a chance at redemption Thursday, as Cincy comes in with a 26.6 percent strikeout rate and .226 average versus righties over the last two weeks of play. Alzolay's mid-90s fastball has already helped him generate an impressive 31.8 percent strikeout rate across his first 8.2 innings.
Top Targets
Fernando Tatis, SDP vs. SFG ($4,800): Tatis is always in play, and especially against a hittable right-hander like Giants starter Trevor Cahill. Tatis boasts a .328/.421/.696 slash line, along with a massive .368 ISO and .461 wOBA, in 145 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers, belting 12 of his 15 homers on the season versus that handedness as well. Meanwhile, Cahill has surrendered a .365 wOBA, 46.7 percent line-drive rate and 60.0 percent hard-contact rate over 30 plate appearances against right-handed hitters this season.
Luke Voit, NYY at BAL ($3,900): Voit has run into some tough luck lately despite putting excellent wood on the ball, as he owned a .244 BABIP over the last two weeks of play heading into Wednesday's action. However, he may have a good chance to turn his fortunes around Thursday against Orioles lefty Keegan Akin. The rookie has been pitching well, but Voit has a good track record against southpaws that includes a .340/.389/.780 line two seasons ago and five homers against lefties in just 34 plate appearances this season. Voit has also been a better road hitter this season and owns a .404 wOBA and .484 ISO in his 81 plate appearances outside Yankee Stadium.
Mike Yastrzemski, SFG at SDP ($3,600): Yastrzemski is enjoying a strong sophomore campaign and gets a crack Thursday at Padres starter Chris Paddack, who's now sporting a 4.75 ERA and 1.9 HR/9. The right-hander is also yielding a .358 wOBA, 27.5 percent line-drive rate and 43.9 hard-contact rate to left-handed hitters, making him an especially appealing target for Yaz. The 30-year-old checks into the contest with a .305/.416/.533 slash line -- along with a .402 wOBA and .229 ISO -- against right-handed pitching in a 125-plate appearance sample.
Bargain Bats
J.D. Martinez, BOS at TAM ($3,100): Martinez is having an atrocious season by his very lofty standards, but he still carries plenty of upside for tournaments and comes at a salary that would be unthinkable for him in any other season. Even in this tough campaign, Martinez's ability to punish southpaws hasn't abandoned him, as he owns a .367 wOBA, .250 ISO and 25.8 percent line-drive rate versus lefties. Meanwhile, Rays starter Josh Fleming has been solid early on, but he's allowed a .325 wOBA to righties while posting an anemic 5.1 K/9 in 49 PAs versus right-handed hitters, and he surrendered a .348 average and 7.04 ERA to that handedness at Triple-A Durham last season.
Enrique Hernandez, LAD at ARI ($2,400): Hernandez's inclusion may seem a bit counterintuitive, given his .223/.257/.379 line. However, there's not only a left-hander on the mound for the D-Backs on Thursday, and it's one the southpaw-masher has enjoyed vast success against. The struggling Madison Bumgarner takes the hill for Arizona, and he checks in with an 8.44 ERA, 9.06 FIP and mediocre 15.0 percent strikeout rate. Hernandez has punished Bumgarner for a .500/.519/.860 line that includes six doubles and four home runs in a robust sample of 52 career plate appearances, so this isn't your typical BvP scenario. Additionally, that success came in years when Bumgarner was a much more effective pitcher than the one who's surrendered a .451 wOBA and 50.8 percent hard-contact rate to right-handed hitters, even with an unsustainably low .200 BABIP helping him out.
Stacks to Consider
Giants vs. Paddack: Yastrzemski; Alex Dickerson ($3,800); Brandon Belt ($3,200); Brandon Crawford ($2,600)
As already mentioned in Yastrzemski's entry, Paddack has had issues with left-handed hitters and general, and the Giants bring some potent ones that could certainly give him trouble. Dickerson makes for a good way to follow Yaz up in a matchup against his former squad. The outfielder has seen almost half (14) of his 30 hits go for extra bases, and he's slugged seven of his eight homers off right-handed pitching. Belt is enjoying the best season of his solid career, with his .324/.423/.629 slash line speaking to the extent of his success. A lot of that production has come against righties, a handedness he's punished for a .372/..455/.698 line across 99 plate appearances this season. Finally, Crawford isn't quite sporting the gaudy numbers of his long-time teammate Belt, but he's enjoying another solid year against right-handed pitching. The veteran shortstop has slugged all four of his homers on the season versus righties and owns a .348 wOBA, 26.7 percent line-drive rate and 40.0 percent hard-contact rate against that handedness on the road.
Padres vs. Cahill: Tatis; Manny Machado ($4,200); Austin Nola ($3,000); Wil Myers ($3,300)
As alluded to in Tatis' entry, Cahill has shown some cracks against right-handed hitters, and to his misfortune, the Padres lineup has plenty that could tee off against him. Machado makes for an excellent other half of a 1-2 punch with the young phenom. The veteran is carrying a .306/.374/.584 slash line for the season, and a .371 wOBA and .242 ISO versus righties in his home park. Nola already has a pair of two-hit outings in his new San Diego digs and checks in with an outstanding .337/.404/.627 slash line against right-handed pitching, numbers that include 12 extra-base hits (six doubles, six homers). Finally, Myers makes for a great way to round things out. Following a 2-for-4 night Wednesday, Myers' season slash line is up to .302/.370/.624, and he owns a .389 wOBA, .333 ISO and massive 60.0 percent hard-contact rate against righties in his home park.
