Wednesday brings us a healthy 10-game slate, a bit more than the usual. The contests offer a nice player pool to choose from, but there's also a bit of danger. At least three games have a decent probability of getting wet so there may be a PPD or two.
Pitching
Aaron Nola, PHI vs. MIA ($11,000): It's not a stretch to take the pitcher with the highest salary cap hit, but there are a few notable factors working in Nola's favor. He has a plus matchup against the Marlins, who strike out the seventh most (25.2 percent) and also have the seventh-worst wOBA (.295) against right-handed pitching. Nola has huge upside, as evidenced by scoring 60 and 58 fantasy points in two of his last three games.
Shohei Ohtani, LAA at NYY ($9.500): While it's not a stretch to consider Ohtani on the mound on any given night, there's a few reasons to like him tonight in particular. At this salary, along with facing the Yankees on the road, I don't expect he'll be a popular pick in any format. However, New York strikes out the ninth most (25.1 percent) against right-handed pitching, and their .314 wOBA is merely league average. Ohtani comes into the game hot with scores of 46, 40, 33 and 52 fantasy points over his last four starts.
Top Targets
Yordan Alvarez, HOU vs. BAL ($4,100): All of the Astros should be on your radar because it's... yes, you guessed it -- Happy Matt Harvey Day! Houston is expected to score over six runs being a -300 favorite in a game with an over/under of 10. Alvarez catches my eye because with his power, he has the potential for a multi-home run game. He should be a staple in cash games, and for his career has hit better at home (1.009 OPS) than on the road.
Fernando Tatis, SD at CIN ($4,600): You can't go wrong with Tatis or Vladimir Guerrero ($4,700) in this spot, but the fact is I trust Justus Sheffield slightly more to have a better outing than Vladimir Gutierrez. Gutierrez has given up four home runs in his last three starts (17 innings) and walks have been an issue as of late (eight over those three outings). Tatis has averaged more than 1.5 fantasy points per game over any other hitter this season and fills a weak hitting spot by qualifying at shortstop.
Value Bats
Chad Pinder, OAK vs. TEX ($2,300): Pinder should be on your radar whenever he's facing a southpaw, and he gets Kolby Allard at home tonight. He has a .344 wOBA against lefties this season, which is pretty much in line with his career .330 mark. Allard's struggles the last two seasons have come when he's been on the road making him an excellent option to target.
Dansby Swanson, ATL vs. NYM ($2,500): Truth be told, Swanson is a boom-or-bust player if you take a look at his box scores. Over his last seven games he's scored six or fewer fantasy points in five of them but also has two games of 30.7 and 28.7 fantasy points. Facing David Peterson at home offers a good matchup, and Swanson has been more adventurous on the basepaths of late with two stolen bases over the last week.
Stacks To Consider
Padres at Gutierrez: Tatis, Manny Machado ($3,500), Jake Cronenworth ($3,200), Trent Grisham ($3,100)
The Astros and Blue Jays are certainly in play here and they may be the pivot to use if rain postpones this game. With the Padres being on the road though, I think they might be overlooked compared to those other two teams who are at home. Wil Myers ($2,500) and Eric Hosmer ($2,800) have been quiet of late but that also means they'll have a low roster rate, making the viable options as well depending on how tight you are against the cap. Cronenworth is in the middle of a breakout campaign and Machado's salary is more than reasonable given his upside.
