FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Value Plays

FanDuel MLB: Wednesday Value Plays

This article is part of our FanDuel MLB series.

Pitcher

Corey Kluber, CLE at KC ($10,000): Already below average against right-handed pitching on the season, a weakened lineup as the result of some critical injuries has led to the Royals having the 28th-ranked offense in terms of wRC+ over the past 14 days with a 81 wRC+ and a 23.9 percent K-rate (which ranks sixth-highest in MLB). Kluber, over his last four starts, has an xFIP of 3.13 and totaled 29 strikeouts (7.25 per start). Granted, the Mets-Pirates game doesn't have a line yet, but otherwise Vegas has the Royals with the lowest projected run total on the night.

Catcher

Josh Phegley, OAK vs. TEX ($3,000): Phegley's career wOBA against left-handed pitching is 69 points higher than that against righties. Less than elite, Phegley does own an above average ISO and his wRC+ sits solidly at 114. Derek Holland has really struggled against right-handed bats this season.

First Base

David Ortiz, BOS vs. BAL ($4,100): Let's take a second just to appreciate the season Ortiz is having. Now closer to his 41st birthday than his 40th, Ortiz leads the league with a .460 wOBA and 191 wRC+. Since the turn of the millennium only four hitters have completed a season with a better wRC+: Barry Bonds (four times), Bryce Harper (last year), Jason Giambi (2001 season) and Miguel Cabrera (2013 season). Against right-handed pitchers Ortiz's number rise to a .480 wOBA and 205 wRC+. At home his number jump to a .513 wOBA and 222 wRC+. At home against a right-handed pitcher, Ortiz holds a .551 wOBA and 253 wRC+. The highest single season wOBA is .544 and wRC+ 244 by Barry Bonds in 2002 (which, interesting enough, is the season after his record-breaking 73 home run year – he only had 46 home runs and a .582 OBP that season).

Second Base

Matt Carpenter, STL vs. HOU ($4,300): Sitting atop the Cardinals order, Carpenter is having the best season of his career with a .398 wOBA and 154 wRC+ as we head into the prime hitting months of the summer. A .266 ISO may be the most impressive stat of Carpenter's season, affirming a trend from last season that he's finding his power stroke after being mostly an OBP guy in the first years of his career. Astros pitcher Collin McHugh has struggled against left-handed bats this season, surrendering 1.8 HR/9, a .387 wOBA and a 4.60 xFIP, suggesting those first two numbers are indeed not fluky.

Third Base

Danny Valencia, OAK vs. TEX ($3,600): Valencia's numbers against southpaws this season: .391 ISO, .527 wOBA and 244 wRC+. Holland's numbers against right-handed bats: .337 wOBA, 1.4 HR/9 and 5.66 xFIP.

Shortstop

Tim Anderson, CHW vs. DET ($2,200): Assuming Anderson keeps the leadoff spot in the order, which seems probable after a 2-for-5 game with two doubles last night, the White Sox's top prospect represents excellent value. His power numbers are fairly low, but he has maintained a batting average over .300 throughout his minor league career. Anderson also comes with some solid base stealing upside: he stole 49 in 125 games last season and has 11 steals already this season. Vegas has the game with an 8.5 over/under even though Chris Sale is on the mound, indicating Mike Pelfrey is extremely vulnerable and the hitting conditions favorable on the south side of Chicago.

Outfield

Michael Saunders, PHI vs. TOR ($3,700): Vegas currently has Jeremy Hellickson +149 in a 8.5 over/under game at home, which considering the Blue Jays have a righty-heavy lineup and Hellickson has a 2.72 xFIP against righties this season seems rather harsh. That success against righties has not been duplicated against left-handed bats however, as he has an xFIP of 5.21 along with a 2.25 HR/9. Despite the publicity the top three Jays' bats receive, the left-handed Saunders has been extremely productive this season with a .404 wOBA and 156 wRC+.

Yoenis Cespedes, NYM vs. PIT ($3,700): Cespedes has steadily regressed from his red-hot start to the season, but his numbers against lefties have stayed gaudy with a .477 wOBA and 211 wRC+. Opposing the Mets is mediocre southpaw Jeff Locke, who holds a 5.38 ERA and 5.18 xFIP on the season.

Mallex Smith, ATL vs. CIN ($2,600): His introduction to the big leagues wasn't without a few bumps and his power numbers are still lacking, but an increase in plate discipline and a move to the top of the order appears to have had a positive impact. So far this June, Smith has an OBP of .400 and has stolen five bases.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Alex Spalding plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: FanDuel: ajump08, DraftKings: ajump08.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Alex Spalding
Alex splits his expertise between College Basketball, NBA, NFL, MLB, and Saturday morning BPL. You'll find him under the username ajump08 on DraftKings and FanDuel.
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