This article is part of our Farm Futures series.
TOP 400 UPDATE
Before getting to the outfield prospect tiers for dynasty leagues, I wanted to touch briefly on last week's update to the top 400 prospect rankings.
The majority of the movement was to the back half of the rankings and it reflected all the work I did with the divisional prospect articles, in which I wrote about 750 total prospects. I think the biggest theme from this update was that I wanted to stress upside in that 200-400 range. Of course, I stress upside throughout the whole top 400, but when I roster prospects in dynasty leagues, I'm only chasing upside in those final prospect spots. This means that the likely No. 4/5 starters got bumped off the list in favor of teenagers who may never amount to anything. You should be churning your last few prospect spots pretty regularly. I'd rather roster a guy like Estiven Machado or Richi Gonzalez and then cut them in July if they're not hitting than roster a starting pitcher for several years who is likely to pitch in a big-league rotation, but is unlikely to ever be a player who is sought after in mixed leagues. Even in 20-team dynasty leagues, you can often pick up a David Bote or John Means off waivers, so why roster the prospect version of that player?
It's also important to stress where the tiers are in the top 400. The gap between a player I have at No. 3 (Julio Rodriguez)
TOP 400 UPDATE
Before getting to the outfield prospect tiers for dynasty leagues, I wanted to touch briefly on last week's update to the top 400 prospect rankings.
The majority of the movement was to the back half of the rankings and it reflected all the work I did with the divisional prospect articles, in which I wrote about 750 total prospects. I think the biggest theme from this update was that I wanted to stress upside in that 200-400 range. Of course, I stress upside throughout the whole top 400, but when I roster prospects in dynasty leagues, I'm only chasing upside in those final prospect spots. This means that the likely No. 4/5 starters got bumped off the list in favor of teenagers who may never amount to anything. You should be churning your last few prospect spots pretty regularly. I'd rather roster a guy like Estiven Machado or Richi Gonzalez and then cut them in July if they're not hitting than roster a starting pitcher for several years who is likely to pitch in a big-league rotation, but is unlikely to ever be a player who is sought after in mixed leagues. Even in 20-team dynasty leagues, you can often pick up a David Bote or John Means off waivers, so why roster the prospect version of that player?
It's also important to stress where the tiers are in the top 400. The gap between a player I have at No. 3 (Julio Rodriguez) and No. 20 (Matt Manning) is massive, but the gap between a player I have at No. 200 (Eduardo Garcia) and No. 350 (Connor Scott) isn't that big at all. Think of the back half of the rankings as a playground. You can check out all of these players and pick the ones you like most, you shouldn't view the rankings as super rigid in that range. I'm happy to answer any questions about the top 400 update in the comments of this article.
OUTFIELD TIERS
If you want in-depth analysis on these guys, I wrote the outlooks for every single guy in the seven tiers, although some of the honorable mention guys didn't get outlooks.
TIER ONE
1. Julio Rodriguez, Mariners
I have Wander Franco in his own tier and Gavin Lux and Rodriguez in their own tier in the overall rankings. It's largely due to the fact I think Lux and Rodriguez are extremely safe and have very high ceilings. Rodriguez is good enough to be a No. 1 overall prospect, but I don't know if he'll get that chance, as he could end up beating Franco to the majors.
TIER TWO
2. Jo Adell, Angels
3. Luis Robert, White Sox
4. Dylan Carlson, Cardinals
5. Jasson Dominguez, Yankees
6. Drew Waters, Braves
7. Kristian Robinson, Diamondbacks
8. Marco Luciano, Giants
9. Jarred Kelenic, Mariners
The prospects from 4-14 on the top 400 are all in the same tier. Any of them could emerge as the best of the bunch and I wouldn't be surprised. Luciano probably has the lowest stolen-base upside of this bunch, but he also might end up with the most raw power by the time he reaches the majors. Robert and Dominguez are the only guys who I think could log a 30-steal season. Luciano's defensive home is uncertain, but I'm betting on him ending up in the outfield.
TIER THREE
10. Corbin Carroll, Diamondbacks
Carroll is on an island as the only outfielder in the 15-37 range of the top 400. Alex Kirilloff could have OF eligibility some years, but I put him in the First Base Tiers. Carroll's leadoff-hitter skills and 30-steal potential are obvious, but don't sleep on his power. I think he'll surprise a lot of people, getting to 20-25 homer pop at peak.
TIER FOUR
11. Erick Pena, Royals
12. Sam Hilliard, Rockies
13. Cristian Pache, Braves
14. Riley Greene, Tigers
15. Hunter Bishop, Giants
16. Luis Matos, Giants
17. Josh Lowe, Rays
18. Alek Thomas, Diamondbacks
19. Brennen Davis, Cubs
I would argue that Pache has the lowest fantasy ceiling in this tier, but there is no denying he is by far the most likely to have a long big-league career, due to his elite defense in center field. Highest ceilings: Pena, Matos, Bishop, Hilliard, Lowe.
TIER FIVE
20. Luis Rodriguez, Dodgers
21. Oneil Cruz, Pirates
22. Brandon Marsh, Angels
23. George Valera, Indians
24. Austin Hays, Orioles
25. JJ Bleday, Marlins
26. Jared Oliva, Pirates
27. Heliot Ramos, Giants
28. Trevor Larnach, Twins
Marsh and Oliva are the only guys in this tier who I expect to steal double-digit bases — Marsh could steal 20, Oliva could steal 25-30. Rodriguez, Marsh and Bleday have the best hit tool projections, Rodriguez, Cruz, Valera, Ramos, Larnach have the best raw power projections. Obviously Cruz is still playing shortstop for now, but if I had to bet on where he will end up, I'd pick right field.
TIER SIX
29. Monte Harrison, Marlins
30. Alexander Canario, Giants
31. Kameron Misner, Marlins
32. Taylor Trammell, Padres
33. Misael Urbina, Twins
34. Jake Fraley, Mariners
35. Greg Jones, Rays
36. Hedbert Perez, Brewers
37. Khalil Lee, Royals
Harrison, Trammell, Fraley and Lee are all fairly close to the majors and all have at least 20-steal upside with varying degrees of power and hit tool concerns. Urbina and Perez are the least flawed, but also the furthest away. Canario, Misner and Jones have at least one loud tool with some strikeout concerns.
TIER SEVEN
38. Ryan Mountcastle, Orioles
39. Yusniel Diaz, Orioles
40. Daniel Johnson, Nationals
41. Jordyn Adams, Angels
42. Benyamin Bailey, White Sox
43. Travis Swaggerty, Pirates
44. Alexfri Planez, Indians
Mountcastle, Diaz and Johnson are close to big-league ready, but their upside isn't very exciting. Adams and Swaggerty have 20-plus steal upside but it's unclear whether they will hit enough to be everyday big leaguers. Bailey and Planez are super tooled up and a long ways away.
Honorable Mention: Jesus Sanchez, Leody Taveras, Hudson Head, Gilberto Jimenez, Daz Cameron, DJ Peters, Alexander Ramirez, Jhon Torres, Edward Olivares, Canaan Smith, Heriberto Hernandez, Wilderd Patino, Jeferson Espinal, Will Benson, Brenton Doyle, Richi Gonzalez, Peyton Burdick, Lolo Sanchez, Kyle Isbel, Michael Harris, Jeremy De La Rosa, Jonatan Clase
