Farm Futures: Ranking The Rookies 4.0

The first version of this article originally appeared in the 2020 RotoWire Baseball Magazine. Version 2.0 was released March 2. Version 3.0 was released last week. There was less movement in this version, but enough happened in the past week to warrant an update.

The top 400 prospect rankings are for dynasty leagues. This resource is for owners who play in single-season leagues, or in keeper leagues where prospects are rarely kept. These tiers serve as a way to rank prospects based on their fantasy potential for 2020. The rankings are not perfect — there are players I would take over a player or two in the tier(s) above them — but the tiered system is a nice way to get a feel for the type of prospect you are investing in.

TIER ONE - Impact Hitters

1. Gavin Lux, 2B, Dodgers

2. Luis Robert, OF, White Sox

3. Dylan Carlson, OF, Cardinals

Now that Lux is in camp and healthy, he moves back to the top spot. I'm keeping this tier together because all three have impact potential, and I'd rate them similarly on a per plate appearance basis. Carlson could open the year as an everyday player, which would make him one of the best bargains in drafts, but it's also possible they manipulate his service time by keeping him at satellite camp for seven days to gain an extra year of team control. Carlson and Lux are helped slightly by the designated hitter coming to the National League, not because they will see much, if any, time at DH, but because it's an extra spot for guys like Tyler O'Neill, Max Muncy and Justin Turner.

TIER TWO - Mixed-League Pitchers

4. A.J. Puk, LHP, Athletics

5. Spencer Howard, RHP, Phillies

6. Dustin May, RHP, Dodgers

7. Nate Pearson, RHP, Blue Jays

8. Mitch Keller, RHP, Pirates

9. Jesus Luzardo, LHP, Athletics

10. Kyle Wright, RHP, Braves

11. Jose Urquidy, RHP, Astros

12. Clarke Schmidt, RHP, Yankees

The top two guys in this tier from just three weeks ago — Luzardo and Urquidy — either have reportedly tested positive for coronavirus (Luzardo) or likely have the virus due to the fact they have not reported to camp (Urquidy). It's obviously worse for a pitcher to be out with the virus right now than a hitter, because it will affect a pitcher's ability to get stretched out in time for the start of the season. Luzardo reported to camp Friday, but he will open the year getting stretched out in the bullpen. Puk and Howard are top-25 overall prospects, top-six pitching prospects, and primed to spend the entire year in their team's rotations. May may work as a starter or he could piggyback someone — either way, he should be startable in all roto formats due his team context. Luzardo has reportedly been keeping his arm in shape while he is quarantined, but he is not a better bet than the guys ahead of him to pitch five-plus innings in his starts, and while he's a better prospect than the guys ahead of him, the gap isn't as big as some think. Pearson's service time will be manipulated, and I'm much more confident in Howard entering the rotation for the first full week of the season. Wright is behind the rest of the Braves' pitchers in terms of building up, but I think he will be startable in 15-team leagues once he is capable of going five-plus innings. We have no idea when to expect Urquidy, and it's possible you can't use him until mid-to-late August. There has been nothing but positive momentum for Schmidt, and I think if manager Aaron Boone had his way, the team's top pitching prospect (by a mile at this point) would open the year in the majors and perhaps in the rotation. He has firmly entered endgame territory for me in 15-team mixed leagues. 

TIER THREE - Mixed-League Hitters

13. Sean Murphy, C, Athletics

14. Austin Hays, OF, Orioles

15. Evan White, 1B, Mariners

16. Nick Solak, UTIL, Rangers

17. Carter Kieboom, 3B/2B, Nationals

18. Nick Madrigal, 2B, White Sox

19. Jake Fraley, OF, Mariners

20. Kyle Lewis, OF, Mariners

21. Sam Hilliard, OF, Rockies

22. Jarred Kelenic, OF, Mariners

With the exception of Madrigal and Kelenic, all of these guys will open the year in the majors and most will open the year as everyday players. Madrigal should be up and playing every day at second base after a week to 10 days. I'm starting to come around to the idea of Evan White being a solid late-round target. He's the No. 31 overall prospect in baseball and will be playing every day, so while we don't know how he will handle jumping from Double-A to the majors, it's possible he will hit the ground running. Hilliard has a high ceiling due to his home park and power/speed combination, but it will be very risky starting a player with an uncertain playing time outlook in weekly leagues during a season where you need to maximize plate appearances. I don't think Lewis will hit for a palatable batting average this season, but he will play every day and anything is possible in a 60-game season — the power is obviously legit. Kelenic is probably the Mariners' best position player right now, so while there's a decent chance he doesn't play at all this season, I could see him forcing their hand. Even if there's only a 25 percent chance he plays in 2020, that's worth an endgame pick.

TIER FOUR - Pitchers For Watch Lists

23. MacKenzie Gore, LHP, Padres

24. Forrest Whitley, RHP, Astros

25. Brendan McKay, LHP, Rays

26. Matt Manning, RHP, Tigers

27. Sixto Sanchez, RHP, Marlins

28. Casey Mize, RHP, Tigers

With Tyler Glasnow and Yonny Chirinos yet to report to camp, McKay has a chance to open the year in the rotation, but I don't think he will be deployed like a typical starter all season. His best avenue to fantasy relevance would be to follow an opener so that he can qualify for wins. Gore probably needed to bang the door down in camp to open the year in the majors, and it sounds like he will have to wait for an injury or two ahead of him at this point. Manning has been the talk of Tigers camp so far, and reading between the lines, I think he's ahead of Mize and Tarik Skubal (absent from camp) in terms of which Tigers pitching prospect could debut early this season. Sanchez has the important distinction of being on the 40-man roster already, so while he won't open the year in the rotation, he could be one of the first options to step in should injuries strike. Whitley is not on the 40-man roster and has not been mentioned (yet) as a rotation option early in the season — Framber Valdez would theoretically fill the fifth starter's role if Urquidy isn't ready. However, Whitley is also the most talented pitching prospect in the game, and whenever it all clicks, he will be a monster, so I'm not taking anything off the table.

TIER FIVE - Hitters For Watch Lists

29. Jo Adell, OF, Angels

30. Alec Bohm, 3B/1B, Phillies

31. Brendan Rodgers, 2B/3B/SS, Rockies

32. Daulton Varsho, C/OF, Diamondbacks

33. Monte Harrison, OF, Marlins

34. Ke'Bryan Hayes, 3B, Pirates

Adell has looked great in camp, but manager Joe Maddon went out of his way to say that Adell isn't ready and they won't be rushing him. Bohm should take over at first base with Rhys Hoskins shifting to designated hitter at some point, but there is no guarantee it will be right after the Phillies gain an extra year of control, and I'm pessimistic about Bohm hitting for average and power, especially in his first big-league season. Rodgers should make the 30-man roster, but he projects to be a bench player, at least initially. It sounds like expanded rosters could expedite Varsho's MLB debut, largely due to his positional versatility. I'm skeptical about how much he would play on the contending Diamondbacks, but if he hits, he'll earn more playing time, obviously. Rodgers, Harrison and Hayes are the only players in this tier on 40-man rosters, which is an important variable. Harrison is a massive batting average risk, but he also has 10/10 potential in a 60-game season. Hayes should debut this season sooner or later, but like with all the hitters in this tier, positive fantasy production is not guaranteed.

TIER SIX - Relievers and Likely Relievers

35. James Karinchak, RHP, Indians

36. Hunter Harvey, RHP, Orioles

37. Bryan Abreu, RHP, Astros

Karinchak will be the setup man in Cleveland on Opening Day and should be startable in 15-team leagues even if Brad Hand is healthy. Harvey could get the majority of Baltimore's saves, but that might amount to less than one per week. Abreu is intriguing because he could be a multi-inning reliever or even a starter, depending on how healthy the rest of the Astros' starters are Opening Day. I like him best in a multi-inning relief role that could translate to wins and the occasional save.

TIER SEVEN - Deep-League Pitchers

38. Justus Sheffield, LHP, Mariners

39. Logan Webb, RHP, Giants

40. Patrick Sandoval, LHP, Angels

41. Tony Gonsolin, RHP, Dodgers

42. Cristian Javier, RHP, Astros

43. Randy Dobnak, RHP, Twins

Sheffield and Webb should open the year in the rotation, but unless you're in an AL or NL only league, I would only start them in favorable matchups or in two-start weeks if I'm desperate for innings/wins. Sandoval won't be ready for the start of the season, but he will be my favorite guy in this tier once he is built up and starting every sixth day. Gonsolin, Javier and Dobnak probably won't open the year in the rotation, but their team context is appealing enough that they would immediately pique my interest if they are moved to the rotation, and they could still provide value by compiling wins as long relievers.

TIER EIGHT - Deep-League Hitters

44. Mauricio Dubon, 2B, Giants

45. Nico Hoerner, 2B/SS, Cubs

46. Abraham Toro, 3B/1B/2B, Astros

47. Edwin Rios, 1B/3B/OF, Dodgers

48. Daniel Johnson, OF, Indians

49. Lewin Diaz, 1B, Marlins

50. Reese McGuire, C, Blue Jays

51. Ryan Mountcastle, OF/1B, Orioles

52. Jake Cronenworth, 2B/SS/3B, Padres

53. Jorge Mateo, 2B/SS, Padres

I don't expect Dubon or Mateo to be productive hitters this season. That said, it's only 60 games, so anything can happen, and Dubon should play almost every day. Mateo won't play every day, but could still steal 5-7 bases this season in a part-time role. Hoerner would need everyday at-bats to be interesting, given his lack of impact power or speed. Toro, Rios and Johnson are three of my personal favorites, but their playing time situation is very murky. Diaz is the Marlins' first baseman of the future, but I don't think he is ready to be productive against big-league pitching. McGuire is just a low-end C2 in deep mixers. Mountcastle might as well debut this year, but it probably won't be until after a week or two and I don't think his production will move the needle much. Cronenworth is a better hitter than Mateo and may be a better overall player than any other Padres option at the keystone, but it's unclear if he will be given more than a utility role this season.

TIER NINE - Hitters For Watch Lists II

54. Joey Bart, C, Giants

55. Cristian Pache, OF, Braves

56. Alex Kirilloff, 1B/DH, Twins

57. Drew Waters, OF, Braves

58. Brandon Marsh, OF, Angels

59. Taylor Trammell, OF, Padres

60. Ryan Jeffers, C, Twins

61. Andrew Vaughn, 1B/DH, White Sox

62. Jared Oliva, OF, Pirates

63. Trevor Larnach, OF/DH, Twins

64. Wander Franco, 2B/SS, Rays

65. Jazz Chisholm, SS, Marlins

66. Nolan Jones, 3B, Indians

67. Josh Lowe, OF, Rays

None of the players in this tier are a lock to make their MLB debuts in 2020, but they are all on 60-man rosters, so nothing is impossible. In the coronavirus era, we could see any team's MLB depth tested beyond anything we've seen before. All of these prospects are talented enough to have success right away against big-league pitching. The Giants won't let Buster Posey's decision to opt out affect their development plan for Bart. Pache is more likely to play a role than Waters because he is on the 40-man roster and could initially break in as a defensive replacement.

TIER TEN - Relievers and Likely Relievers II

68. Brusdar Graterol, RHP, Dodgers

69. Kevin Ginkel, RHP, Diamondbacks

70. Sam Delaplane, RHP, Mariners

Graterol probably won't provide much fantasy value in 2020, but he's my pick to be the heir apparent to Kenley Jansen in the ninth inning. I don't see Ginkel as a long-term closer, but he could get saves in 2020 if something happens to Archie Bradley. Delaplane could be the Mariners' closer of the future and could make his big-league debut this summer.

TIER ELEVEN - Pitchers For Watch Lists II

71. Luis Patino, RHP, Padres

72. Josiah Gray, RHP, Dodgers

73. Tarik Skubal, LHP, Tigers

74. James Kaprielian, RHP, Athletics

75. Reid Detmers, LHP, Angels

76. Bryse Wilson, RHP, Braves

77. Ian Anderson, RHP, Braves

78. Daulton Jefferies, RHP, Athletics

79. Shane McClanahan, LHP, Rays

80. Logan Gilbert, RHP, Mariners

None of these pitchers are locks to pitch in the majors this year, but undoubtedly some of them will. Gray and McClanahan are good bets to be broken in as relievers initially, but they have long-term upside as starters. The ones on contending teams need injuries ahead of them to get a shot, and it is unclear how the ones on rebuilding teams will be handled.

TIER TWELVE - Deep-League Hitters II

81. Kevin Cron, 3B/1B, Diamondbacks

82. Adolis Garcia, OF, Rangers

83. Randy Arozarena, OF, Rays

84. Edward Olivares, OF, Padres

85. Kevin Padlo, 3B/1B/2B, Rays

86. Zach McKinstry, 2B/OF, Dodgers

87. DJ Peters, OF, Dodgers

88. Andy Young, 2B/3B/SS, Diamondbacks

89. Bobby Dalbec, 3B/1B, Red Sox

90. Sheldon Neuse, 2B/3B, Athletics

91. Zack Collins, DH, White Sox

92. Jaylin Davis, OF, Giants

93. Willi Castro, SS, Tigers

94. Bobby Bradley, 1B, Indians

95. Tyler Stephenson, C, Reds

96. Keibert Ruiz, C, Dodgers

97. Daz Cameron, OF, Tigers

98. Jose Garcia, SS, Reds

99. Andres Gimenez, SS/2B, Mets

100. Justin Williams, OF, Cardinals

101. Isaac Paredes, 3B/2B/SS, Tigers

102. Brent Rooker, OF/DH, Twins

103. Taylor Jones, 1B, Astros

104. Wyatt Mathisen, 3B/1B/2B, Diamondbacks

This is a hodgepodge of hitters who are either not very good, firmly blocked, not big-league ready, or some combination of the three. Johnson, Padlo, McKinstry, Peters, Williams, Jones are the ones I most want to see get a shot, but they are all pretty buried on the depth chart at the moment.

TIER THIRTEEN - Deep-League Pitchers II

105. Brady Singer, RHP, Royals

106. Joe Palumbo, LHP, Rangers

107. Anthony Banda, LHP, Rays

108. David Peterson, LHP, Mets

109. Devin Smeltzer, LHP, Twins

110. Dane Dunning, RHP, White Sox

111. Anthony Kay, LHP, Blue Jays

112. Lewis Thorpe, LHP, Twins

113. Justin Dunn, RHP, Mariners

With the possible exception of Peterson and Palumbo if they looked promising in a previous MLB start, I wouldn't feel good about starting any of these pitchers against the worst teams in baseball. If just having innings is of value to you, then that's where these guys factor in.